StockCharts.comStockCharts.comExpert market commentary from StockCharts.comtag:stockcharts.com,2009:masterblog2024-03-28T23:32:38ZHow to Analyze Volume Trends on Multiple Time FramesDavid Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-28:post-274112024-03-28T23:32:37Z2024-03-28T23:32:37Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/28/db0fec8b-645b-4163-a40e-7e95edee9b53.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave highlights charts breaking above resistance levels, including Gold Shares (GLD), Phillips 66 (PSX), Capital One Fence Corp (COF), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and DraftKings (DKNG). Dave also interviews Buff Dormeier of Kingsview Investment Management, who shows how he uses RSI, the Money Flow Index (MFI), and Volume-by-Price indicators to assess volume conditions on daily and weekly charts. </span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 28, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/3UjOHQYNT8s" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave highlights charts breaking above resistance levels, including Gold Shares (GLD), Phillips 66 (PSX), Capital One Fence Corp (COF), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and DraftKings (DKNG). Dave also interviews Buff Dormeier of Kingsview Investment Management, who shows how he uses RSI, the Money Flow Index (MFI), and Volume-by-Price indicators to assess volume conditions on daily and weekly charts. This video originally premiered on March 28, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes...Market Research and Analysis - Part 3: Market Trend AnalysisGreg Morristag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-28:post-273692024-03-28T19:00:00Z2024-03-28T19:00:00Z<p>This article (and the next) focuses on trends in the market—an explanation as to why markets trend, reasons why it is good to know that markets trend, then finally, a large research section into how much markets trend. This analysis will initially be shown on 109 market indices that involve domestic, international, and commodity sectors. Following that the full list of all S&P GICS sectors, industry groups, and industries are shown following the same format. There is a great amount of data in these two sections. I try to slice through it with simple analysis, keeping in mind that lots of data does not equate to information.</p><h3>Why Markets Trend</h3><p>Trends in markets are generally caused by short-term supply-and-demand imbalances with a heavy overdose of human emotion. When you buy a stock, you know that someone had to sell it to you. If the market has been rising recently, then you know you will probably pay a higher price for it, and the seller also knows he can get a higher price for it. The buying enthusiasm is much greater than the selling enthusiasm.</p><p>I hate it when the financial media makes a comment when the market is down by saying that there are more sellers than buyers. They clearly do not understand how these markets work. Based on shares, there are always the same number of buyers and sellers; it is the buying and selling enthusiasm that changes.</p><p>Trending is a positive feedback process. Even Isaac Newton believed in trends with his first law of motion, which stated that an object at rest stays at rest, while an object in motion stays in motion, with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted on by an unbalanced force. Hey, an apple will continue to fall until it hits the ground. Positive feedback is the direct result of an investor's confidence in the price trend. When prices rise, investors confidently buy into higher and higher prices.</p><h3>Supply and Demand</h3><p>A buyer of a stock, which is the demand, bids for a certain amount of stock at a certain price. A seller, which is the supply, offers a certain amount at a certain price. I think it is fair to say that one buys a stock with the anticipation that they can sell it later to someone at a higher price. Not an unreasonable desire, and probably what drives most investors. The buyer has no idea who will sell it to him, or why they would sell it to him. He may assume that he and the seller have a complete disagreement on the future value of that stock. And that might be correct; however, the buyer will never know. In fact, the buyer just might be the seller's person who buys it from him at a higher price.</p><p>The reasons for buying and selling stock are complex and impossible to quantify. However, when they eventually agree, what is it that they agreed on? Was it the earnings of the company? Was it the products the company produces? Was it the management team? Was it the amount of the stock's dividend? Was it the sales revenues? As it turns out, it was none of those things; the transaction was settled because they agreed on the price of the stock, and that alone determines profit or loss. Changes in supply and demand are reflected immediately in price, which is an instantaneous assessment of supply and demand.</p><h3>What Do You Know about This Chart?</h3><p>In Figure 10.1, I have removed the price scale, the dates, and the name of this issue; now let me ask you some questions about this issue.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/7cabfa0e-37f3-4282-b4df-cd6548ba081d.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><ol><li>Is this a chart of daily prices, weekly prices, or 30-minute prices?</li><li>Is this a chart of a stock, a commodity, or a market index? (Okay, I'll give you this much, it is a daily price chart of a stock over a period of about six years.)</li><li>During this period of time, there were 11 earnings announcements. Can you show me where one of those announcements occurred and, if you could, whether the earnings report was considered good or bad?</li><li>Also during the period of time for this chart, there were seven Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. Can you tell me where one of them occurred, and whether the announcement was considered good or bad?</li><li>Does this stock pay a dividend?</li><li>Hurricane Katrina occurred during this period displayed on this chart; can you tell me where it is?</li><li>Finally, would you want to buy this stock at the beginning of the period displayed and then sell it at the end of the period (right side of chart)?</li></ol><p>I doubt, in fact, I <em>know</em> you cannot answer most of the above questions with any tool other than guessing. The point of this exercise is to point out that there is always and ever noise in stock prices. This noise comes in hundreds of different colors, sizes, shapes, and media formats. The bottom line is that it is just noise. The financial media bombards us all day long with noise. I do not think they do it maliciously; they do it because they believe they are giving you valuable information to help you make investment decisions. Nothing could be further from the truth.</p><p>Of course, question number 7 is the one question that most can answer, because from the chart a buy-and-hold investment during the data displayed clearly resulted in no investment growth.</p><p>However, let me tell you what I see as shown in Figure 10.2. I see two really good uptrends and, if I had a trend-following methodology that could capture 65 percent to 75 percent of those uptrends, I would be happy. I also see two good downtrends, and if I had a methodology that could avoid about 75 percent of them, I would also be happy. If you could do that for the amount of time shown on the chart below, then you would come out considerably better off than the buy-and-hold investor. I generally only participate in the long side of the market and move to cash or cash equivalents when defensive. However, a long-short strategy could possibly derive even greater profit.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/83ea0e6a-89f3-4133-81cf-88b195a60109.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h3>Trend vs. Mean Reversion</h3><p>I prefer to use a market analysis methodology called <em>trend following</em>. Sometimes it should be called <em>trend continuation</em>. Why? Trend analysis works on the thoroughly researched concept that once a trend is identified, it has a reasonable probability to continue. I know that is the case because, most of the time, markets are trending markets, and I see no reason to adopt a different strategy during a period of mean reverting, such as is experienced in the market from time to time.</p><p>You can think of trend following as a positive feedback mechanism. Mean reverting measures are those that oscillate between predetermined parameters; oftentimes the selection of those parameters is the problem. Mean reversion strategies are clearly superior during those volatile sideways times, but the implementation of a mean reverting process requires a level of guessing that I refuse to be a part of. You can think of mean reversion as a negative feedback mechanism.</p><p>In technical analysis, there are many mean reverting measures that could be used. They are the ones where you frequently hear the terms overbought and oversold. Overbought means the measurement shows that prices have moved upward to a limit that is predefined. Oversold means the opposite—prices have moved down to a predetermined level. The problem with that type of indicator or measurement is that a parameter needs to be set beforehand to know what the overbought and oversold levels are. Also, if you believe something mean reverts, you will probably have difficulty in determining the rate of reversion. For mean reversion to be relevant, there must be a meaning tied to average (mean) and, since most market data does not adhere to normal distributions, the mean isn't as meaningful (sic). Kind of like charting net worth and removing billionaires to make the data less skewed and therefore a more meaningful average.</p><p>Clearly, mean reverting measurements would work better in highly volatile markets, such as we witness from time to time. One might ask the question: Why don't you incorporate both into your model? A fair question, but one that shows the inquiry is forgetting that hindsight is not an analysis tool that will serve you well. When do you switch from one strategy (trend following) to the other (mean reversion)? Therein lies the problem.</p><p>Another question that might be asked is why not use adaptive measures to help identify the two types of markets. Again, another fair question! I think the lag between the two types of markets and the fact that often there is no clear period of delineation is the issue. It is a natural instinct to want to change the strategy in order to respond more quickly from one to the other. Natural instincts are what we are trying to avoid, simply because they are generally wrong, and painfully wrong at the worst times.</p><p>The transition from trend following to mean reversion can be difficult to see except with 20/20 hindsight. For example, when you view a chart which clearly has gone from trending to reversion, from that point, if we had used a simple mean reverting measurement, we would have looked like geniuses. However, in reality, periods like that have existed many times in the past in overall trending markets. Then the next problem becomes when to move away from a mean reverting strategy back to a trend following one. Again, hindsight always gives the precise answer, but in reality it is extremely difficult to implement in real time.</p><p>The bottom line is that with markets that generally trend most of the time, keeping a set of rules and stop loss levels in place will probably always win over the long-term. Sharpshooting the process is the beginning of the end. Trend following is somewhat similar to a momentum strategy except for two significant differences: one, momentum strategies generally rank past performance for selection, and two, often they do not utilize stop-loss methods, instead moving in and out of top performers. They both rely on the persistence of price behavior.</p><h3>Trend Analysis</h3><p>If one is going to be a trend follower, what is the first thing that must be done (rhetorical)? In order to be a trend follower, you must first determine the minimum length trend you want to identify. You cannot follow every little up and down move in the market; you must decide what the minimum trend length is that you want to follow. Once this is done, you can then develop trend-following indicators using parameters that will help identify trends in the market based on the minimum length you have decided on.</p><p>Figure 10.3 is an example of various trend-following periods. The top plot is the Nasdaq Composite index. The second plot is a filtered wave showing the trend analysis for a fairly short-term-oriented trend system. This is for traders and those who want to try to capture every small up and down in the market; a process that is not adopted by this author. The third plot is the ideal trend system, where it is obvious that you buy at the long-term bottom and sell at the long-term top. You must realize that this trend analysis can only be done with perfect 20/20 hindsight, and is probably even more difficult than the short-term process shown in the second plot. The bottom plot is a trend analysis process that is at the heart of the concepts discussed in this book. It is a trend-following process that realizes you cannot participate in every small up and down move, but try to capture most of the up moves and avoid most of the down moves.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/b0c27ff8-6b5e-40e4-a4ce-ce4ad3dc23d4.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There is a concept developed by the late Arthur Merrill called Filtered Waves. A filtered wave is the measurement of price movements in which only the movement that exceeds a predetermined percentage is counted. The price component used in this concept needs to be decided on as to whether to use just the closing prices for the filtered wave or use a combination of high and low prices. This would mean that, while prices are rising, the high would be used, and while prices are falling, the low price would be used. I personally prefer the high and low prices, as they truly reflect the price movements, whereas the closing prices only would eliminate some of the data.</p><p>For example, in Figure 10.4 , the background plot is the S&P 500 Index with both the close C and the high low H-L filtered waves overlaid on the prices. You can see that the H-L filtered wave techniques picks up more of the data; in fact, it shows a move of 5 percent in the middle of the plot that the Close only version did not show. In this particular example, the zigzag line uses a filter of 5 percent, which means that each time it changes direction, it had previously moved at least 5 percent in the opposite direction. There is one exception to this, and that is the last move of the zigzag line (there is a similar discussion in an earlier chapter). It merely moves to the most recent close regardless of the percentage moved so it must be ignored.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/ad5a358e-d84c-4dc4-8471-aa910df4b133.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The bottom plot in Figure 10.5 shows the filtered wave by breaking down the up moves and down moves and then counting the number of periods that were in each move. There are three horizontal lines on that plot; the middle one is at zero, which is where the filtered wave changes direction. In this example, the top and bottom lines are at +21 and -21 periods, which mean that anytime the filtered wave exceeds those lines above or below, the trend has lasted at least 21 periods. Notice that, in this example, there was a period at the beginning (highlighted) where the market moved up and down in 5% or greater moves with high frequency, but never lasted long enough to exceed the 21 boundaries. Then, in the second half of the chart, there were two good moves that did exceed the 21 boundaries. This is a good example of a chart where there was a trendless market (first half) and a trending market (second half). I used the high-low filtered wave of 5 percent and 21 days for the minimum length because that is what I prefer to use for most trend analysis.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/10cec8cf-bd80-439f-b160-fe75a0244466.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The following research was conducted using the high-low filtered wave using various percentages and various trend length measures. The research was conducted on a wide variety of market prices, such as most domestic indices, most foreign indices, all of the S&P sectors and industry groups; 109 issues in all. I offer commentary throughout so you can see that this was a robust process. Any indices or price series that is missing was probably because of an inadequate amount of data, as you need a few years of data to determine a series' trendiness. The goal of this research was to determine that markets generally trend and if there are some markets that trend better than others. Following this large section, the trend analysis will be shown using the S&P GICS data on sectors, industry groups, and industries.</p><p>Table 10.1 is the complete list of indices used in this study along with the beginning date of the data.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/a3ef713d-8481-408f-974a-6d967acf303d.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/afb72053-e94f-4774-84f9-902a2e184e98.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/a4db406f-b0a4-4821-986f-28ce290886fe.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/f7ae67dd-8fed-406a-91ff-93df4515e45c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I did multiple sets of data runs, but will explain the process by showing just one of them. Table 10.2 is the data run through all 109 indices for the 5% filtered wave and 21 days for the trend to be identified. The first column is the name of the index (they are in alphabetical order), while the next four columns are the results of the data runs for the total trend percentage, the uptrend percentage, the downtrend percentage, and the ratio of uptrends to downtrends.</p><p>The total reflects the amount of time relative to the amount of all data available that the index was in a trend mode defined by the filtered wave and trend time; in the case below, a trend had to last at least 21 days and a move of 5% or greater. The up measure is just the percentage of the uptrend relative to the amount of data. Similarly, the downtrend is the percentage of the downtrend to the amount of data. If you add the uptrend and downtrend, you will get the total trend.</p><p>The last column is the U/D Ratio, which is merely the uptrend percentage divided by the downtrend percentage. If you look at the first entry in Table 10.2, the AMEX Composite trends 71.18 percent of the time, with 56.16% of the time in an uptrend and 15.03% of the time in a downtrend. The U/D Ratio is 3.74, which means the AMEX Composite trends up almost 4 (3.74) times more than it trends down. You can verify the amount of data in the Indices Date table shown early to see if it was adequate enough for trend analysis. It is not shown, but the complement of the total would give you the amount of time the index was trendless.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/cb833a76-2e21-4e58-b4ca-ec132c29d129.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/b34fc4fc-d5f5-472c-8507-98375344b257.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/fa9a9a26-9df5-470b-b322-3a955ab243b6.jpg"></p><p>At the bottom of each table is a grouping of statistical measures for the various columns. Here are the definitions of those statistics:</p><p><em>Mean.</em> In statistics, this is the arithmetic average of the selected cells. In Excel, this is the Average function (go figure). It is a good measure as long as there are no large outliers in the data being analyzed.</p><p><em>Average deviation.</em> This is a function that returns the average of the absolute deviations of data points from their mean. It can be thought of as a measure of the variability of the data.</p><p><em>Median.</em> This function measures central tendency, which is the location of the center of a group of numbers in a statistical distribution. It is the middle number of a group of numbers; that is, half the numbers have values that are greater than the median, and half the numbers have values that are less than the median. For example, the median of 2, 3, 3, 5, 7, and 10 is 4. If there are a wide range of values that are outliers, then median is a better measure than mean or average.</p><p><em>Minimum.</em> Shows the value of the minimum value of the cells that are selected.</p><p><em>Maximum.</em> Shows the value of the maximum value of the cells that are selected.</p><p><em>Sigma.</em> Also known as standard deviation. It is a measure of how widely values are dispersed from their mean (average).</p><p><em>Geometric mean.</em> First of all, it is only good for positive numbers and can be used to measure growth rates, etc. It will always be a smaller number than the mean.</p><p><em>Harmonic mean.</em> Simply the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean, or could be stated as the arithmetic mean of the reciprocals. It is a value that is always less than the geometric mean, and like the geometric mean, can only be calculated on positive numbers and generally used for rates and ratios.</p><p><em>Kurtosis.</em> This function characterizes the relative peakedness or flatness of a distribution compared with the normal distribution (bell curve). If the distribution is "tall", then it reflects positive kurtosis, while a relatively flat or short distribution (relative to normal) reflects a negative kurtosis.</p><p><em>Skewness.</em> This characterizes the degree of symmetry of a distribution about its mean. Positive skewness reflects a distribution that has long tails of positive values, while negative skewness reflects a distribution with an asymmetric tail extending toward more negative values.</p><p><em>Trimmed mean (20 percent).</em> This is a great function. It is the same as the Mean, but you can select any number or percentage of numbers (sample size) to be eliminated at the extremes. A great way to eliminate the outliers in a data set.</p><h4>Trendiness Determination Method One</h4><p>This methodology for trend determination looks at the average of multiple sets of raw data. An example of just one set of the data was shown previously in Table 10.2, which looks at a filtered wave of 5% and a minimum trend length of 21 days. Following Table 10.3 is an explanation of the column headers for Trendiness One in the analysis tables that follow.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/ddf3555d-bb35-4be2-a9ca-25140300f844.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><em>Trendiness average.</em> This is the simple average of all the total trending expressed as a percentage. The components that make up this average are the total trendiness of all the raw data tables, in which the total average is the average of the uptrends and downtrends as a percentage of the total data in the series.</p><p><em>Rank.</em> This is just a numerical ranking of the trendiness average, with the largest total average equal to a rank of 1.</p><p><em>Avg. U/D.</em> This is the average of all the raw data tables' ratio of uptrends to downtrends. Note: If the value of the Avg. U/D is equal to 1, it means that the uptrends and downtrends were equal. If it is less than 1, then there were more downtrends.</p><p><em>Uptrendiness WtdAvg.</em> This is the product of column Trendiness Average and column Avg. U/D. Here the Total Trendiness (sum of up and down) is multiplied by their ratio, which gives a weighted portion to the upside when the ratio is high. If the average of the total trendiness is high and the uptrendiness is considerably larger than the downtrendiness, then this value (WtdAvg) will be high.</p><p><em>Rank.</em> This is a numerical ranking of the Up Trendiness WtdAvg, with the largest value equal to a rank of 1.</p><p>Table 10.4 shows the complete results using Trendiness One methodology.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/f4cd8a6d-5703-4c5c-9ab4-2fdf2fcdaa89.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/328c0377-a70c-42e7-8096-60814e8363f4.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/b3e22acf-2b5e-488e-9cdb-3c2e7e3eb00f.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h4>Trendiness Determination Method Two</h4><p>The second method of trend determination uses the raw data averages. For example, the up value is calculated by using the raw data up average compared to the raw data total average, which therefore means it only is using the amount of data that is trending and not the full data set of the series. This way, the results are dealing only with the trending portion of the index, and if you think about it, when the minimum trend length is high and the filtered wave is low, there might not be that much trending. Table 10.5 shows the column headers followed by their definitions.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/c5c19d28-951d-40ce-baee-c542b0ef738b.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><em>Up.</em> This is the average of the raw data Up Trends as a percentage of the Total Trends.</p><p><em>Down.</em> This is the average of the raw data Down Trends as a percentage of the Total Trends.</p><p><em>Up rank.</em> This is the numerical ranking of the Up column, with the largest value equal to a rank of 1.</p><p>Table 10.6 shows the results using Trendiness Two methodology.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/18cfd985-95ab-4d7d-88c6-dc14e69b2186.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/b6712b9f-9313-4ebe-b3a0-c6f099f2dc04.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/112455ee-53f8-4b5a-a520-d216c825b214.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h4>Comparison of the Two Trendiness Methods</h4><p>Figure 10.6 compares the rankings using both "Trendiness" methods. Keep in mind we are only using uptrends, downtrends, and a derivative of them, which is up over down ratio. The plot below is informally called a <em>scatter plot</em> and deals with the relationships between two sets of paired data.</p><p>The equation of the regression line is from high school geometry and follows the expression: <em>y = mx + b</em>, where <em>m</em> is the slope and <em>b</em> is the <em>y</em>-intercept (where it crosses the <em>y</em> axis); <em>x</em> is known as the independent variable or the predictor variable and<em> y</em> is the dependent variable or response variable. The expression that defines the regression (linear least squares) shows that the slope of the line (<em>m</em>) is 0.8904. The line crosses the<em> y</em> (vertical) axis at 6.027, which is <em>b</em>. <em>R^2</em>, which is also known as the<em> coefficient of determination</em>, is 0.7928. From <em>R^2</em>, we can easily see that the correlation <em>R</em> is 0.8904 (square root of <em>R^2</em>). We know this is a highly positive correlation because we can visually verify it simply from the orientation of the slope. We can interpret <em>m</em> as the value of <em>y</em> when <em>x</em> is zero and we can interpret <em>b</em> as the amount that <em>y</em> increases when <em>x</em> increases by one. From all of this, one can determine the amount that one variable influences the other.</p><p>Sorry, I beat this to death; you can probably find simpler explanations in a high school statistics textbook.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/04fbddd1-439f-4a02-9227-cba2611dd2b4.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h4>Trendless Analysis</h4><p> This is a rather simple but complementary (intentional spelling) method that helps to validate the other two processes. This method focuses on the lack of a trend, or the amount of trendless time that is in the data. The first two methods focused on trending, and this one is focused on nontrending, all using the same raw data. Determining markets that do not trend will serve two purposes. One is to not use conventional trend-following techniques on them, and the other is that it can be good for mean reversion analysis. Table 10.7 shows the column headers; the definitions follow.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/8ea06ffb-5506-46d7-b38c-681c3b68df3e.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><em>Up.</em> This is the Total Trend average from Trendiness One multiplied by the Up Total from Trendiness Two.</p><p><em>Down.</em> This is the Total Trend average from Trendiness One multiplied by the Down Total from Trendiness Two.</p><p><em>Trendless.</em> This is the complement of the sum of the Up and Down values (1 – (Up + Down)).</p><p><em>Rank.</em> This is the numerical rank of the Trendless column with the largest value equal to a rank of 1.</p><p>Table 10.8 shows the results using the Trendless methodology.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/2052891f-c989-4eb8-bad2-b16eb2f5eb91.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/bf5a76d2-f337-4281-8d52-2dd49976d629.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/2476485c-289e-44d4-b5c0-cad3e68dee5b.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h4>Comparison of Trendiness One Rank and Trendless Rank</h4><p>Although I think this was quite obvious, Figure 10.7 shows the analysis math is consistent and acceptable. These two series should essentially be inversely correlated, and they are with coefficient of determination equal to one.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/85ed38db-2c20-4e1b-af47-e7167c4a548d.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The following tables take the data from the full 109 indices and subdivide it into sectors, international, domestic, and time frames to ensure there is robustness across a variety of data. There are many indices that appear in many of, if not most of, these tables, but keeping data of that sort for comparison with others that are not so widely diversified will enhance the research.</p><p>These tables show all three trend method results. This first table consists of all the index data. The remaining ones contain subsets of the All table, such as Domestic, International, Commodities, Sectors, Data > 2000, Data > 1990, and Data > 1980. The reason for the data subsets is to ensure there is a robust analysis in place across various lengths of data, which means multiple bull-and-bear cyclical markets are considered in addition to secular markets. The Data > 2000 means that the data starts sometime prior to 2000 and therefore totally contains the secular bear market that began in 2000.</p><h4>All Trendiness Analysis</h4><p>Table 10.9 contains data from all of the 109 indices in the analysis. The first column contains letters identifying the subcategory for each issue as follows:</p><p style="margin: 0in;">I – International</p><p style="margin: 0in;">S – Sector</p><p style="margin: 0in;">C – Commodity</p><p>Blank – Domestic</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/b3cd4b8e-dbd1-4cae-9eac-053bdc95126b.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/07853369-d170-4a1c-82a6-17472dcb32ce.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/c1bf9479-5408-414f-88aa-f1afaac7722e.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/51fa2470-9efc-4536-bde7-44ebe64b8c55.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h4>Trend Table Selective Analysis</h4><p>In this section, I will demonstrate more details on selected issues from Table 10.9 to show how the data can be utilized.</p><p>Using the Trendiness One Rank, you can see that the U.S. Dollar Index is number one. You can also see it is the worst for being Trendless (last column), which one would expect. However, if you look at the Trendiness One and Trendiness Two Up Ranks, you see that it did not rank well. This can only be interpreted that the U.S. Dollar Index is a good downtrending issue, but not a good uptrending one based on this relative analysis with 109 various indices. This is made clear from the long trendline drawn from the first data point to the last data point and is clearly in a downtrend.</p><p>Figure 10.8 shows the U.S. Dollar Index with a 5% filtered wave overlaid on it. The lower plot shows the filtered wave of 5% measuring the number of days during each up and down move. The two horizontal lines are at +21 and -21, which means that movements inside that band are not counted in the trendiness or trendless calculations. The only difference between what this chart shows and what the table data measures is the fact that the table is averaging a number of different filtered waves and trend lengths.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/f6ca3486-0bea-41e6-942f-fd687d819083.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/6c76b76d-3677-4093-a871-5540d5a52a2c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Let's now look at the worst trendiness index and see what we can find out about it (Table 10.9). The Trendiness One rank and the Trendless Rank confirm that this is not a good trending index. Furthermore, the Up Trendiness in both One and Two also shows that it ranks low (109 and 81) in the Trendiness One, which is measuring the trendiness based on all the data, and that the rank in Trendiness Two is high (4). Remember that Trendiness Two only looks at the trending data, not all of the data. Therefore, you can say that this index when in a trending mode, tends to trend up well, but the problem is that it isn't in a trending mode often (see Table 10.11).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/3ba983c2-6e54-4178-a843-8aa5d2e5cc74.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Figure 10.9 shows the Turkey ISE National-100 index with the same format as the earlier analysis. Notice that it is generally in an uptrend based on the long-term trend line. From the bottom plot, you can see that there is very little movement of trends outside of the +21 and -21 day bands. Bottom line is that this index doesn't trend well, and is quite volatile in its price movements; if you are trend follower; don't waste your time with this one. A question that might arise is that it is also clear from the top plot that it is in an uptrend, so if you used a larger filtered wave and/or different trend length, it might yield different results. My response to that is simply: of course it will, you can fit the analysis to get any results you want, especially with all this wonderful hindsight. Bad approach to successful trend following.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/76bc12c1-ecaf-4232-b919-c8e119707cb0.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Using the same data table, let's look at an index that ranks high in the uptrend rankings (Table 10.9). From the table it ranks as middle of the road relatively based on Trendiness One and Trendless rank. However, the rank for Up Trendiness One and Trendiness Two Up rank is high (both are 5). This means that most of the trendiness is to the upside with only moderate downtrends (see Table 10.12).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/adb582fa-9495-4462-94f6-2c0a6b099cca.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Figure 10.10 shows the Norway Oslo Index clearly in an uptrend. The bottom plot shows that most of the spikes of trend length are above the +21 band level and very few are below the .21 band level. This confirms the data in the table.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/3d362ce8-4664-4fb9-aad5-2f8cd61c02b4.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>In order to carry this analysis to fruition, let's look at the index with the worst uptrend rank (Table 10.9). From the table, the Trendiness One and Two Up ranks are dead last (109). The Trendiness One overall rank is 104, which is almost last, and the trendless rank is 6, which confirms that data (see Table 10.13).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/00afb6e1-010f-42b7-afe8-35e12ff62b61.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Figure 10.11 shows that the Hanoi SE Index is clearly in a downtrend; however, the bottom plot shows that very few trends are outside the bands. And the ones that move well outside the bands are the downtrends. As before, one can change the analysis and get desired results, but that is not how it should be done. One note, however, is that this index does not have a great deal of data compared to most of the others and this should be a consideration in the overall analysis.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/20/b0dfeb9a-a784-4d38-8649-de3423a95713.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><hr><p><em>Thanks for reading this far. I intend to publish one article in this series every week. Can't wait? The book is for sale </em><a href="https://store.stockcharts.com/products/investing-with-the-trend?_pos=2&_sid=4556a7133&_ss=r" target="_blank"><em>here</em></a><em target="_blank">.</em></p>This article (and the next) focuses on trends in the market—an explanation as to why markets trend, reasons why it is good to know that markets trend, then finally, a large research section into how much markets trend. This analysis will initially be shown on 109 market indices that involve domestic, international, and commodity sectors. Following that the full list of all S&P GICS sectors, industry groups, and industries are shown following the same format. There is a great amount of data in these two sections. I try to slice through it with simple analysis, keeping in mind that lots...One Month of Positive Seasonality Remaining -- OBV Says, "Maybe Not."Carl Swenlintag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-28:post-274082024-03-28T19:03:50Z2024-03-28T18:51:32Z<p>The late Yale Hirsch (<a href="https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/Index.aspx" target="_blank">Stock Trader's Almanac</a>) has long been known for identifying the six-month periods of positive and negative seasonality in the stock market. The positive period is November through April, and the negative period is May through October. We are currently in a positive period, which has one more month to go. Unfortunately, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) chart is saying that April may not be all that positive.</p><p>The chart below shows the positive periods (green), and the negative periods (pink), and we can see that the market rarely accommodates that rigid schedule. It loosely fits positive and negative behavior within those brackets, but those periods begin and end pretty much when they feel like it. The current positive period, however, has been exceptionally compliant, beginning at the end of October and continuing with unrelenting positivity through March. Can this possibly continue for another month? Of course it can, but there are signs on the OBV chart that say it may end sooner than that.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/28/fb0e7046-2948-452a-9c1e-fe41a4eff3b3.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p85624568066&a=1642944368')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>OBV (<a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv" target="_blank">On-Balance Volume</a>) is a cumulative line to (or from) which the day's total volume is added or subtracted based upon whether price closes up or down. Normally, OBV will merely <em>confirm</em> price movement, making lows or highs that match price movement. Boring. What we look for are instances where OBV fails to confirm price. A good example of that on the chart is at the end of 2021 when SPY was making a series of higher tops, but OBV only made a series of lower tops, failing to confirm price movement. Basically, price moved higher, but volume began to thin out. I have marked three other instances where OBV failed to confirm price, and one of them is for the current period.</p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> There are six-month periods of positive and negative seasonality that appear to influence the direction of prices. During the current positive period, beginning in November, the stock market has been unrelentingly positive, but the OBV chart shows that volume has been trending negatively. It could be that the rising trend in prices is about to end.</p><p><br></p><hr><p><strong>Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/66qsogtAq_M" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></div><p><br></p><hr><h4><br></h4><h4><strong>Watch the latest episode of the <em>DecisionPoint</em><em>Trading Room</em> on DP's YouTube channel </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decisionpointcom" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a><strong target="_blank">!</strong></h4><p><br></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p target="_blank"><a href="https://decisionpoint.com/products.html" target="_blank"><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/10/29/46e3cccc-e3bf-4fba-8c66-1a2cb24ee9a1.jpg"></a></p><h2> Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!</h2><h2> Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!</h2><hr><blockquote><strong>Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin</strong></blockquote><hr><p><strong>(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com</strong></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.</em></strong></p><hr><p><strong><u>Helpful DecisionPoint Links:</u></strong></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=trend+model&id=chart_school:trading_strategies:decisionpoint_trend_model" target="_blank"><strong>Trend Models</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=pmo&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo" target="_blank"><strong>Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=obv&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv" target="_blank"><strong>On Balance Volume</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpsto" target="_blank"><strong>Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitbm" target="_blank"><strong>ITBM</strong></a><strong target="_blank"> and </strong><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitvm" target="_blank"><strong>ITVM</strong></a></p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=sctr&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank"><strong>SCTR Ranking</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2022/02/bear-market-rules-refresher-352.html" target="_blank">Bear Market Rules</a></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><br></p>The late Yale Hirsch (Stock Trader's Almanac) has long been known for identifying the six-month periods of positive and negative seasonality in the stock market. The positive period is November through April, and the negative period is May through October. We are currently in a positive period, which has one more month to go. Unfortunately, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) chart is saying that April may not be all that positive.The chart below shows the positive periods (green), and the negative periods (pink), and we can see that the market rarely accommodates that rigid schedule. It loosely...Return of the Meme Stock Frenzy: Is Now the Time to Shift Your Investment Focus?Jayanthi Gopalakrishnantag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-28:post-274052024-03-28T06:33:11Z2024-03-28T06:33:11Z<p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/b532092f-aa82-412c-8da3-1ad366d81955.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="121"></p><p element-id="120">Today's stock market action uncovered some unusual activity. While the broader stock market indexes rose—the S&P 500 hit a record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a three-day losing streak—it was interesting that Communication Services and Technology were the worst-performing S&P 500 sectors.</p><p element-id="120">The Sector Summary below shows that all 11 S&P 500 sectors were green at the close on Wednesday. However, Utilities, Real Estate, and Industrials were the top three leading sectors. One day doesn't make a trend; however, if it continues, it would indicate that investors are getting more comfortable with the overall market and are not afraid to diversify their investments among different asset types.</p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/87d0d922-e11e-4923-bdee-1fd87925f981.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="1"></p><p element-id="120"><span class="image-caption" element-id="4">CHART 1. SECTOR SUMMARY FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27. All S&P 500 sectors are positive, but Communications Services and Technology fell to the bottom.</span><em element-id="3"><span class="image-caption" element-id="2">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><h2 element-id="14">A Broad Rally</h2><p element-id="120">If you run the <strong element-id="1">New All-Time Highs</strong> scan, one of the scans in the <strong element-id="0">StockCharts Sample Scan Library</strong>, there were over 40 stocks and exchange-traded funds representing different sectors and market caps. The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($SPXEW) closed higher (see chart below), confirming that Wednesday's rally was broad.</p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/44053ff8-484f-45f2-8586-abde152f6eea.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="1"></p><p element-id="120"><span class="image-caption" element-id="0">CHART 2. THE S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX CLOSES HIGHER.</span></p><p element-id="120">Keep an eye on this chart to see if $SPXEW continues to trend up. When comparing the performance of $SPXEW to the S&P 500 ($SPXEW:$SPX), which is displayed in the bottom panel, it's clear $SPXEW is still underperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin, but $SPXEW is starting to turn higher. If it continues in that direction, there could be increasing market participation from investors.</p><p element-id="120">Small- and mid-caps also saw strong breadth. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) closed higher and shows strong market breadth (see chart below).</p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/28f8092a-2670-45b2-85a8-a45f81ba119c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="2"></p><p element-id="120"><span class="image-caption" element-id="1">CHART 3. S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX CLOSES HIGHER. A breakout above the December 2023 high could be an indication of further strength in small-cap stocks. Market breadth in small caps is also strong.</span><em element-id="1"><span class="image-caption" element-id="1">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p element-id="120">The percentage of S&P 600 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is almost 70%, with advancers far greater than declines. If you brought up a chart of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID), you'll see it hit an all-time high with market breadth similar to that of $SML.</p><h2 element-id="0">Gold Soars</h2><p element-id="120">Another area not to ignore is gold. Gold prices have been on a tear. The monthly chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold's price has broken above its trading range and is now above $2212 per ounce.</p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/b6a2f19f-cc2e-4bd1-92a4-c88d8f00eca3.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="2"></p><p element-id="120"><span class="image-caption" element-id="1">CHART 4. GOLD PRICES SURGE. This could be a short-term rally, but gold prices could rise much higher if there is momentum. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></p><p element-id="120">Gold continues to hit new highs, which is interesting because investors usually turn to gold as a hedge. But why hedge when inflation is cooling? It's hard to say. Perhaps gold traders felt left behind and thought it was time to get in the spotlight. So, it may be a short-term rally, but if the momentum remains, you could take advantage of the rally by investing in an ETF like GLD.</p><h2 element-id="6">Meme Stock Craze</h2><p element-id="120">Gold traders aren't the only ones who are feeling left out. Some elements of meme stock mania show its presence in the stock market. Two stocks that have gained significant investor attention after a few days of trading are Reddit (RDDT) and Truth Social (DJT).</p><p element-id="120">Is this a sign that investors are comfortable with where the stock market is now and are looking to make quick gains? It's possible that we could see more investor participation as investors become more complacent. But this type of manic action can also signify a market reaching its peak. This doesn't mean there'll be a stock market crash. It does mean, though, that when there's a shift in investor sentiment, it's time to have your antennas up.</p><h2 element-id="3">The Bottom Line</h2><p element-id="120">While a broad market rally is encouraging, it doesn't mean you should get complacent. Trade with a risk management strategy and closely monitor the different sectors and asset classes. Seeing a big-picture view of the stock market enables you to navigate the stock market strategically so that you can see your investment returns grow.</p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/ecf8c9ba-52c4-4750-b1b0-df37a8a4862c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="120" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/')"></p><hr element-id="1"><p element-id="120"><strong element-id="2"><em element-id="1">Disclaimer:</em></strong><em element-id="0"> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation or consulting a financial professional.</em></p>Today's stock market action uncovered some unusual activity. While the broader stock market indexes rose—the S&P 500 hit a record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a three-day losing streak—it was interesting that Communication Services and Technology were the worst-performing S&P 500 sectors.The Sector Summary below shows that all 11 S&P 500 sectors were green at the close on Wednesday. However, Utilities, Real Estate, and Industrials were the top three leading sectors. One day doesn't make a trend; however, if it continues, it would indicate that...S&P 7000 By End of 2024?David Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-27:post-274062024-03-27T23:10:56Z2024-03-27T23:10:56Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/ecb67c55-68c0-4bec-aa4b-c616cab76c07.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, guest David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors shares his updated target for the S&P 500, and makes the case for a bullish melt-up phase for stocks, bonds, and gold. Dave Keller focuses in on the relative performance of defensive sectors, bearish candles for NVDA, and one group within the energy sector showing new signs of strength.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 27, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/CMKSWU-c1oU" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, guest David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors shares his updated target for the S&P 500, and makes the case for a bullish melt-up phase for stocks, bonds, and gold. Dave Keller focuses in on the relative performance of defensive sectors, bearish candles for NVDA, and one group within the energy sector showing new signs of strength.This video originally premiered on March 27, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You...When These Levels Break, The S&P 500 Is Going To Explode HigherJulius de Kempenaertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-27:post-273952024-03-27T22:48:38Z2024-03-27T22:48:38Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/81310a60-2903-4a27-90f5-47be0c48e5b2.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Summary</h2><p>The Relative Rotation Graph for US Sectors for this week mainly shows a continuation of the rotations as they were underway last week.</p><p><strong>XLB</strong> : Moving from lagging into improving at a strong RRG-Heading, underscoring the building up of relative strength for this sector.</p><p><strong>XLC</strong> : Stable inside the leading quadrant on a short tail.</p><p><strong>XLE</strong> : Adding a long new segment to the tail, pushing it further into the improving quadrant at the highest JdK RS-Momentum reading in the universe.</p><p><strong>XLF</strong> : Inside the weakening quadrant but at a very short tail, indicating a stable relative uptrend that is going through a pause.</p><p><strong>XLI</strong> : Pushing into the leading quadrant now at a strong RRG-Heading while moving away from the center (benchmark) of the chart. This suggests an improvement in relative strength.</p><p><strong>XLK</strong> : This week, the tail is accelerating at a negative RRG, heading toward the lagging quadrant, urging (more) caution in the tech sector.</p><p><strong>XLP</strong> : Remains stable, just above 100 on the JdK RS-Momentum scale on the left side of the RRG. Relative strength slowly drifting lower.</p><p><strong>XLRE</strong> : The raw RS-line dropped below horizontal support, which will likely ignite a new acceleration lower, pushing the XLRE tail deeper into the lagging quadrant.</p><p><strong>XLU</strong> : The tail picked up some relative momentum this week but no relative strength yet. This suggests it is more of a temporary move. This makes sense, as XLU has the lowest RS-Ratio reading in the universe.</p><p><strong>XLV</strong> : The tail is crossing back into the lagging quadrant from improving. With the raw RS-Line dropping below horizontal support, more relative weakness is expected, pushing XLRE further into lagging.</p><p><strong>XLY</strong> : Starting to improve slowly while inside the lagging quadrant. Not at a positive RRG-Heading yet</p><h2>Discretionary beating Staples</h2><p>One interesting observation that can be made from the RRG above is the Consumer Staples sector (XLP) slowly rotating out of favor while the Consumer Discretionary sector has started to pick up relative momentum inside the lagging quadrant and has now started to move back up.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/ea96e007-2c3b-4513-a4c7-59c278a493fc.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>When we zoom in on that relationship, using a daily RRG, it becomes visible that this rotation is now getting traction.</p><p>Let's just say that discretionary beating staples in relative terms is NOT a characteristic of a bear market.</p><h2>Sectors Pushing Against Major Resistance Levels</h2><p>Another thing that caught my eye is that many sectors are pushing against or nearing major resistance levels. Including defensive sectors like Staples and Utilities, Healthcare has already broken higher.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/133ac1cc-6e5f-492c-a5ba-a5dbe4b06ddd.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_XLB&p=W&b=3&g=0&i=p39947137765&a=1637914617')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/08068d0e-9228-48a7-916d-8caece746bc5.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_XLE&p=W&b=3&g=0&i=p65082291720&a=1637914623')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/07c5c2d9-97a8-4577-aa39-1b6d28b8beb9.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_XLF&p=W&b=3&g=0&i=p18285431360&a=1637914625')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/3fffb33f-c1d9-4107-a040-441debac767d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_XLP&p=W&b=3&g=0&i=p11925930749&a=1637914616')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/e5f374f8-7174-4779-8e6d-d571b020ee2f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_XLU&p=W&b=3&g=0&i=p42124083568&a=1637914624')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><blockquote>It ain't over until its over. When these sectors convincingly break their overhead resistance levels, they will likely provide new fuel to power the rally even further.</blockquote><p>#StayAlert, --Julius</p>SummaryThe Relative Rotation Graph for US Sectors for this week mainly shows a continuation of the rotations as they were underway last week.XLB : Moving from lagging into improving at a strong RRG-Heading, underscoring the building up of relative strength for this sector.XLC : Stable inside the leading quadrant on a short tail.XLE : Adding a long new segment to the tail, pushing it further into the improving quadrant at the highest JdK RS-Momentum reading in the universe.XLF : Inside the weakening quadrant but at a very short tail, indicating a stable relative uptrend that is going...KRE's Impending Plunge: What This Emerging Crisis MeansKarl Montevirgentag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-27:post-274022024-03-27T18:15:40Z2024-03-27T18:15:40Z<p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/71e5f5fd-605c-4d7d-9f88-888d83945efc.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" element-id="128"></p><p element-id="120"><em element-id="2">Full disclosure: While there are many ways to view the following, this article will deliberately view the matter from a bearish angle.</em></p><p element-id="120">While some investors look to KRE—the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF—as a possible "long" prospect, especially once the Fed begins cutting rates, it's essential to consider the bearish case, which opens up opportunities on the short side.</p><p element-id="120">According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/real-estate-lenders-confront-falling-us-commercial-property-prices?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" element-id="35">Bloomberg's dire February bombshell</a><span target="_blank" element-id="34">, investors seem to ignore the "brutal reality" of delinquencies in the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Consider this:</span></p><ul element-id="33"><li element-id="32">Regional bank exposure to CRE is up to an alarming 28.7%, compared to a mere 6.5% held by large banks (according to JPMorgan).</li><li element-id="31">The CRE market is a whopping $5.7 trillion, with regional bank portfolios making up 54% of loans.</li><li element-id="30">According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), an estimated 385 regional banks may experience failure if CRE loan defaults persist at the current rates.</li></ul><h2 element-id="29">The Technical Picture: Bullish Recovery or Lehman Moment?</h2><p element-id="27">KRE's recovery began as soon as the Fed stepped in to put out fires in last year's banking crisis using its Bank Term Funding Program (which expired on March 11). KRE's dismal performance against the S&P 500 and the broader Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index ($DJUSBK) reflects the dire situation that regional banks face due to their CRE exposure (see chart below).</p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/pqykwIGL718WyPycevQG2ZFroBtVX19flgFK77DZE0QpDFPXqh04Qk-ItxexXQw8Kh3M150luFC9Q-rV9j4F95vPRlXTfXqYcf30oRhVXfCV-jMfy_EPIdRndnyikA4XDBGI6JrcOe7bWDJQ9Q_03oI" element-id="26"></p><p element-id="120"><span class="image-caption" element-id="25">CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF KRE. Note KRE's underperformance against the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index.</span><em element-id="24"><span class="image-caption" element-id="23">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><h2 element-id="22">The Near-Term Perspective</h2><p element-id="120">KRE's price is rising within an uptrend channel (see black dotted lines in the daily chart below), but the momentum appears weak.</p><p element-id="120">The falling <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv#:~:text=On%20Balance%20Volume%20(OBV)%20uses,and%20the%20OBV%20line%20falls." target="_blank" element-id="21"><strong element-id="20">On Balance Volume (OBV)</strong></a><span target="_blank" element-id="19"> line indicates that negative volume has exceeded positive volume. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has fallen below the zero line, indicating that selling pressure has carved a hollow space beneath the foundation of KRE's rise.</span></p><p element-id="120"><img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/6IebfFRp1bVZA70-aH9YGWfh1rPg0Le7IyybwQKem7JpZyTNpmVh-EC4IyIgw7UAOJYe9jqXow_DXWEfb0V_AsHBva60i5xp0MiEUSdf1E4bdyBDPdc2f2qMLjFpE_4ESz89xMa6RwKc9jBFDR-nj6c" element-id="18"></p><p element-id="120"><span class="image-caption" element-id="17">CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF KRE. While KRE's rise within a trend channel might look like a steady yet guarded recovery since its most recent drop, if you examine momentum indicators, they reveal intensifying selling pressure, which could hold back bullish momentum.</span><em element-id="16"><span class="image-caption" element-id="15">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p element-id="120">If you want to go short, you're waiting for the price to pierce the bottom of the channel (see blue circle) before entering a short. If you go short, three targets should be immediately clear (stop loss should be placed at the top of the channel):</p><ul element-id="9"><li element-id="8"><strong element-id="4">Target 1.</strong> The most recent swing low of $45.31</li><li element-id="7"><strong element-id="3">Target 2.</strong> Previous resistance at $44.75 (which may become support)</li><li element-id="6"><strong element-id="2">Target 3.</strong> Previous resistance at $43.50</li></ul><p element-id="120"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/27/10b09d74-0596-433d-af46-d53f9f9a8c06.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: right; width: 550px;" element-id="127" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/')"></p><p element-id="120">These levels don't reflect the grim fundamental readings should the ultra-bearish predictions unfold. They represent the lower-hanging fruit ideal for a bearish swing trade. Should the sub-sector unfold like the ultra-bears envision, then you would look to the weekly chart to plot your target based on longer-term support or resistance levels. KRE's chart isn't there yet, so sticking with the easy target is better.</p><h2 element-id="3">The Bottom Line</h2><p element-id="120">The case of KRE may (or may not) be a glaring testament to the folly of mainstream optimism. With the Fed playing puppet master and investors turning a blind eye to the looming catastrophe in commercial real estate (CRE) delinquencies, the scenario seems ripe for a reckoning. If the alarmist bears are correct, then those betting on a bullish resurgence are playing with fire.</p><p element-id="120">The actual play here may be on the short side. If a systemic crisis unfolds as the ultra-bearish forecast, positioning yourself on the right side of the market means leveraging the crushing force of the trend rather than becoming its victim.</p><hr element-id="0"><p element-id="120"><strong element-id="126"><em element-id="125">Disclaimer:</em></strong><em element-id="124"> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p>Full disclosure: While there are many ways to view the following, this article will deliberately view the matter from a bearish angle.While some investors look to KRE—the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF—as a possible "long" prospect, especially once the Fed begins cutting rates, it's essential to consider the bearish case, which opens up opportunities on the short side.According to Bloomberg's dire February bombshell, investors seem to ignore the "brutal reality" of delinquencies in the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Consider this:Regional bank exposure to CRE is up to an alarming...Three Industrial Stocks With Room to Run!David Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-27:post-274002024-03-27T00:54:20Z2024-03-27T00:54:20Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/26/5b49e13d-2c90-46ae-873c-aafb50e04cb1.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave welcomes guest Mary Ellen McGonagle of MEM Investment Research. David compares two stocks in the same industry group with dramatically different chart patterns. Which one would you want to own here and why? Mary Ellen shares three stocks with constructive setups and shares her perspective on downside risk as we transition into Q2.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 26, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/CnCmlbvnoy0" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave welcomes guest Mary Ellen McGonagle of MEM Investment Research. David compares two stocks in the same industry group with dramatically different chart patterns. Which one would you want to own here and why? Mary Ellen shares three stocks with constructive setups and shares her perspective on downside risk as we transition into Q2.This video originally premiered on March 26, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can...Surprise Negative Divergence on Nasdaq Advance-Decline LineErin Swenlintag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-26:post-273992024-03-26T22:44:46Z2024-03-26T22:44:46Z<p>We were perusing the Advance-Decline Line charts that we have and noticed something that surprised us. The Nasdaq Advance-Decline Line is trending lower while prices continue higher. This is negative divergence we didn't expect to see.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/26/700d3ba3-5f06-43d5-99e4-130847f0769d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32933358440&a=1637873400')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>What makes that negative divergence even more interesting is looking at the same Advance-Decline Lines for the SPX and NYSE. Notice there is no negative divergence at all, if anything we see confirmations of the rallies both are experiencing.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/26/25e78ed0-a4e2-4741-9def-02420d742cf9.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p35595849563&a=1637873447')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/26/b567985a-031e-4c75-aed1-2858837dde27.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p68844908871&a=1637873404')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>We haven't seen any issues with the Nasdaq rally, but this negative divergence could be signaling that the Nasdaq will be the first to show price weakness.</p><hr><p><br></p><p><strong>Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/66qsogtAq_M" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></div><p><br></p><hr><h4><br></h4><h4><strong>Watch the latest episode of the <em>DecisionPoint</em><em>Trading Room</em> on DP's YouTube channel </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decisionpointcom" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a><strong target="_blank">!</strong></h4><p><br></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p target="_blank"><a href="https://decisionpoint.com/products.html" target="_blank"><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/10/29/46e3cccc-e3bf-4fba-8c66-1a2cb24ee9a1.jpg"></a></p><h2> Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!</h2><h2> Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!</h2><hr><blockquote><strong>Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin</strong></blockquote><hr><p><strong>(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com</strong></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.</em></strong></p><hr><p><strong><u>Helpful DecisionPoint Links:</u></strong></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=trend+model&id=chart_school:trading_strategies:decisionpoint_trend_model" target="_blank"><strong>Trend Models</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=pmo&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo" target="_blank"><strong>Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=obv&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv" target="_blank"><strong>On Balance Volume</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpsto" target="_blank"><strong>Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitbm" target="_blank"><strong>ITBM</strong></a><strong target="_blank"> and </strong><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitvm" target="_blank"><strong>ITVM</strong></a></p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=sctr&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank"><strong>SCTR Ranking</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2022/02/bear-market-rules-refresher-352.html" target="_blank">Bear Market Rules</a></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><br></p>We were perusing the Advance-Decline Line charts that we have and noticed something that surprised us. The Nasdaq Advance-Decline Line is trending lower while prices continue higher. This is negative divergence we didn't expect to see.What makes that negative divergence even more interesting is looking at the same Advance-Decline Lines for the SPX and NYSE. Notice there is no negative divergence at all, if anything we see confirmations of the rallies both are experiencing.Conclusion: We haven't seen any issues with the Nasdaq rally, but this negative divergence could be signaling that the...DP Trading Room: Shake Up at Boeing (BA)Erin Swenlintag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-25:post-273932024-03-25T18:09:00Z2024-03-25T18:09:00Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/25/b78e26c0-960c-48a5-b2fe-527d2261f8e3.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 125px;"></p><p>Today Carl and Erin reviewed the Boeing (BA) chart together discussing the technical ramifications of the step down of the CEO and two other board members. We do note that the CEO will finish out the year so problems could continue throughout the year. The technicals on the chart are interesting!</p><p>Carl also discussed dividend paying stocks and the need to include them in your retirement accounts. He analyzed all aspects of the market and covered Bitcoin, Crude Oil and Bonds among others.</p><p>Erin did a detailed review of the sectors. Erin then took symbol requests to finish out the trading room. Today's symbol requests covered numerous Semiconductor stocks. </p><p>01:36 On Balance Volume (OBV)</p><p>03:35 Dividend Stock Discussion</p><p>06:07 PMO Sort Example</p><p>07:31 Boeing (BA) Discussion</p><p>10:59 Magnificent 7</p><p>16:41 Market Update</p><p>24:22 Questions Answered</p><p>30:27 Sector Overview</p><p>35:48 Symbol Requests</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/iun-gQXxsEQ" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><br></p><hr><h4><br></h4><h4><strong>Watch the latest episode of the <em>DecisionPoint</em><em>Trading Room</em> on DP's YouTube channel </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decisionpointcom" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a><strong target="_blank">!</strong></h4><p><br></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p target="_blank"><a href="https://decisionpoint.com/products.html" target="_blank"><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/10/29/46e3cccc-e3bf-4fba-8c66-1a2cb24ee9a1.jpg"></a></p><h2> Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!</h2><h2> Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!</h2><hr><blockquote><strong>Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin</strong></blockquote><hr><p><strong>(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com</strong></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.</em></strong></p><hr><p><strong><u>Helpful DecisionPoint Links:</u></strong></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=trend+model&id=chart_school:trading_strategies:decisionpoint_trend_model" target="_blank"><strong>Trend Models</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=pmo&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo" target="_blank"><strong>Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=obv&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv" target="_blank"><strong>On Balance Volume</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpsto" target="_blank"><strong>Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitbm" target="_blank"><strong>ITBM</strong></a><strong target="_blank"> and </strong><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitvm" target="_blank"><strong>ITVM</strong></a></p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=sctr&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank"><strong>SCTR Ranking</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2022/02/bear-market-rules-refresher-352.html" target="_blank">Bear Market Rules</a></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><br></p>Today Carl and Erin reviewed the Boeing (BA) chart together discussing the technical ramifications of the step down of the CEO and two other board members. We do note that the CEO will finish out the year so problems could continue throughout the year. The technicals on the chart are interesting!Carl also discussed dividend paying stocks and the need to include them in your retirement accounts. He analyzed all aspects of the market and covered Bitcoin, Crude Oil and Bonds among others.Erin did a detailed review of the sectors. Erin then took symbol requests to finish out the trading room...Week Ahead: Short Week May Not See NIFTY Adopting Sustained Directional Bias; Volatility May ReturnMilan Vaishnavtag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-25:post-273912024-03-25T22:00:31Z2024-03-25T10:58:58Z<p>After a corrective action the week before, the markets continued to wear a tentative look throughout this past week as well.</p><p>In the previous technical note, it was mentioned that the level of 22525 has become an intermediate top for the markets, and any runway upsides should not be expected. It was also mentioned that this corrective undertone might persist for some more time. Volatility also cooled off as INDIAVIX declined by 10.74% to 12.22. The markets continued to stay and trade on the analyzed lines while they oscillated in the 470-500 points range over the past few days. The headline index finally closed with a negligible gain of 73.40 points (+0.33%).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/25/0b4c32c5-9fcf-4d6c-aa93-83b60f898b53.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NIFTY&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p12302310978&a=475599006')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><blockquote>Nothing much should be expected from the coming week; the markets are likely to stay in a defined range with no tangible upsides visible beyond a few technical rebounds. Importantly, we have monthly derivatives expiry lined up. Also, on top of it, we have just a 3-day trading week. Monday is a trading holiday on account of Holi, while Friday is a trading holiday on account of Good Friday. The monthly derivatives expiry and the short trading week may not support the markets for any kind of runaway upmove taking place. The previous week's high point is likely to act as resistance over the coming days; by and large, besides any intermittent technical rebounds, we are unlikely to see any runaway kind of upmove.</blockquote><h4>The coming week is expected to see the levels of 22200 and 22380 acting as immediate resistance points for the markets. The supports come in at 21700 and 21610 levels. The trading range is expected to stay moderately wider than usual.</h4><p>The weekly RSI stands at 65.63; it remains neutral and shows no divergence. However, when subjected to pattern analysis, it shows a negative divergence against the price. The weekly MACD has shown a negative crossover; it is now bearish and trading below its signal line.</p><p>The pattern analysis shows that during the last phase of the upmove, the Nifty had come with a negative divergence of the RSI against the price. While the price marked higher highs, the RSI did not, and this led to the negative divergence. In the process, the Nifty has also formed an intermediate high at 22525 levels. The nearest support exists in the form of a 20-week MA, which currently stands at 21407. This may keep the markets under corrective pressure; no significant upmove can be expected and the corrective undertone may continue to persist for some time.</p><p>All in all, we are likely to see banking and finance space trying to improve their relative performance. Besides this, the defensive pockets, like IT, Pharma, FMCG, etc., may see some resilient show as they try to improve their relative strength against the broader markets. It should be noted that all upmove or technical rebounds are likely to find selling pressure at higher levels. It is strongly recommended to use all technical rebounds as and when they occur to protect profits at higher levels. While continuing to stay highly selective in approach, we advise a cautious outlook for the coming week.</p><hr><h2>Sector Analysis for the Coming Week</h2><p><em>In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.</em></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/25/d874569f-2851-41a3-9751-f9649b91badd.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that we can expect relative outperformance from Nifty Auto, Commodities, IT, Energy, Pharma, Infrastructure, Nifty PSU Bank, and PSE stocks as these groups are placed inside the leading quadrant. However, a few among these groups, like PSE, Commodities, and Energy, are showing some slowdown in their relative performance against the broader markets.</p><p>The Midcap 100, Metal, and Realty Sectors are inside the weakening quadrant. Individual performance might continue, but we can expect the relative performance to get weaker from this space.</p><p>Nifty Media continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant. Nifty Bank, Services Sector, Financial Services, and FMCG sectors are also inside the lagging quadrant, but they are seen improving on their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 index.</p><p>The Nifty Consumption Index is inside the improving quadrant.</p><hr><p><strong><em>Important Note: </em></strong><em>RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. </em></p><hr><p><strong>Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA</strong></p><p> Consulting Technical Analyst</p><p> <a href="www.EquityResearch.asia" target="_blank"><strong>www.EquityResearch.asia</strong></a><strong> | </strong><a href="www.ChartWizard.ae" target="_blank"><strong>www.ChartWizard.ae</strong></a><strong> </strong></p>After a corrective action the week before, the markets continued to wear a tentative look throughout this past week as well.In the previous technical note, it was mentioned that the level of 22525 has become an intermediate top for the markets, and any runway upsides should not be expected. It was also mentioned that this corrective undertone might persist for some more time. Volatility also cooled off as INDIAVIX declined by 10.74% to 12.22. The markets continued to stay and trade on the analyzed lines while they oscillated in the 470-500 points range over the past few days. The headline...You Need To Understand NOW What Changed After The Fed AnnouncementTom Bowleytag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-24:post-273902024-03-24T19:08:28Z2024-03-24T19:00:54Z<p>I've always liked to look at certain points during a bull market or bear market where the character of the market could change based on key fundamental news. We were at one of those points on Wednesday as 2 o'clock approached. The Fed was about to deliver their latest policy statement and traders were on pins and needles. Questions were swirling about what the Fed might say, and do, given the February Core CPI and Core PPI numbers that were reported higher than expected. The Fed already has squashed the bulls once recently, when they shot down the possibility of a March 2024 rate cut after expectations were building for exactly that. There were still the 3 rate cuts supposed to occur in 2024, but the Fed told us that higher rates would remain a bit longer.</p><p>Most traders are not blessed with great patience. Things could have turned ugly this past Wednesday at 2pm ET if the Fed decided to wait even longer to lower rates, possibly cutting the expected number of rate cuts from 3 down to some lower number. And what might happen if the Fed did an "about face" and said something that might indicate they'd have to reconsider hiking again? After all, this Fed hasn't exactly been consistent in its discussion about interest rates.</p><p>Well, a lot of that anxiety came to an end on Wednesday as the Fed stuck to its previous guidance, despite the higher inflation reports the week prior. The stock market NEVER performs well when uncertainty is rising, but it generally does quite well when that anxiety is diminished. So at the moment the Fed indicated that nothing had really changed in their view, the stock market screamed higher, with the small cap IWM quickly testing overhead price resistance:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/24/aacf2f66-16ab-4155-883d-8be8f705bf9a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p88388347301&a=1636659783')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>This was the chart I sent to EB members in my Daily Market Report on Thursday. Small caps received the news it was looking for and reacted according - to the upside. But the closing breakout never occurred on Thursday and that false breakout led to some profit taking on Friday. It'll be interesting to see where small caps head this week. Since 1987, the annualized return for the IWM over the next 7 days is 41.20%, more than 4 times its average annual return. This tells us that history suggests a strong week ahead for small caps. But nothing is more important than the combination of price and volume. Before we grow overly excited about IWM's prospects, we need to clear candle body price resistance, currently at 208.21.</p><h2>Major Index and Sector Rotation</h2><p>With this new information (basically the same as the old), and with inflation fears subsiding further, where did the money go from Wednesday 2pm ET through Friday's close? Shouldn't we be interested in what the big Wall Street firms were doing with their money after this fundamental announcement? Well, this is what the big boys were favoring after the announcement. </p><p><strong>Major Indices</strong></p><ul><li>NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): +1.74%</li><li>Russell 2000 (IWM): +1.73%</li><li>S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY): +1.55%</li><li>S&P 500 Large Cap (SPY): +1.11%</li><li>Dow Jones (DIA): +0.92%</li></ul><p><strong>Sectors</strong></p><ul><li>Industrials (XLI): +1.49%</li><li>Communication Services (XLC): +1.46%</li><li>Technology (XLK): +1.34%</li><li>Consumer Discretionary (XLY): +0.84%</li><li>Energy (XLE): +0.74%</li><li>Financials (XLF): +0.73%</li><li>Health Care (XLV): +0.48%</li><li>Materials (XLB): +0.42%</li><li>Real Estate (XLRE): +0.16%</li><li>Utilities (XLU): +0.05%</li><li>Consumer Staples: -0.08%</li></ul><p>Clearly, money rotated and benefited "risk on" areas of the stock market, which is secular bull market behavior. Aggressive sectors led by a wide margin over defensive sectors. Money also returned to growth as most growth vs. value ratios turned higher after Wednesday 2pm ET as well.</p><h2>Industry Group Rotation</h2><p>We now know that money rotated in bullish fashion and to more growth-oriented areas, though industrials' leadership and the S&P 500's break to yet another all-time high after the Fed announcement is further evidence of wide participation in this latest advance. And with small caps right up there with the NASDAQ 100, all those breadth arguments can be tossed right out of the window.</p><p>Here's what we should take away from industry group performance after the Fed meeting:</p><ol><li>Semiconductors ($DJUSSC) was #1 among ALL industry groups - not too shocking</li><li>The Top 10 industry group performers belonged to either technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), or industrials (XLI)</li><li>Heavy construction ($DJUSHV) had broken out a few weeks ago and the Fed announcement saw momentum increase significantly within this group</li><li>Trucking ($DJUSTK) bounced off 50-day SMA support and is poised to break further into all-time high territory, a very bullish development for transportation stocks ($TRAN) in general</li><li>Gold mining ($DJUSPM) and mining ($DJUSMG) both saw bullish initial reactions, but then gave back most of those gains by Friday</li></ol><h2>Big Loser</h2><p>In my mind, it's once again gold ($GOLD). I think many traders believed that falling rates ahead would trigger a drop in the U.S. Dollar (UUP). Not gonna happen. Any weakness in the dollar of late has been triggered by potential erosion by inflation. The Fed essentially said that inflation isn't a problem, despite the higher CPI and PPI readings recently. Our economy remains quite resilient and unemployment remains low, especially compared to foreign economies. That's why the UUP is strong. Another breakout in the UUP could be at hand:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/24/a71d54cc-fda9-432d-bb75-aada46fa19c1.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p96521634539&a=1639030449')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I know many keep pointing to the recent breakout in GLD, but I want to OUTPERFORM the S&P 500 and the above chart shows you that, outside of a few short-term pops to the upside (blue-dotted directional lines), the overall RELATIVE performance line is going down, down, down in a very big way. No thank you.</p><h2>A Rapidly-Improving Heavy Construction Small Cap Stock</h2><p>I was focusing on the heavy construction area ($DJUSHV) this weekend, because of its recent strength and then the surge after last Wednesday's Fed meeting and policy statement. There are a number of stocks that caught my attention, but one in particular that I believe has a LOT more upside given its current technical outlook. I'll be sending it out to our FREE EB Digest subscriber community before the market opens tomorrow morning. If you're not already a subscriber, you can <a href="https://www.earningsbeats.com/public/subscribe.cfm?ref=tp" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a> to sign up with your name and email address. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time!</p><p>Happy trading!</p><p>Tom</p>I've always liked to look at certain points during a bull market or bear market where the character of the market could change based on key fundamental news. We were at one of those points on Wednesday as 2 o'clock approached. The Fed was about to deliver their latest policy statement and traders were on pins and needles. Questions were swirling about what the Fed might say, and do, given the February Core CPI and Core PPI numbers that were reported higher than expected. The Fed already has squashed the bulls once recently, when they shot down the possibility of a March 2024 rate cut after...Stocks Are Going UP "With or Without You"Tom Bowleytag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-23:post-273892024-03-23T18:58:08Z2024-03-23T18:53:40Z<p>U2 is one of my favorite bands and I can't help but think of their song, "With or Without You", when I look at an S&P 500 chart. This secular bull market is waiting for no one. You're either in it or you're not. There's nothing wrong with being a bit cautious from time to time, but remaining on the bearish side of the ledger or, worse yet, shorting stocks? In my opinion, it's financial suicide. As money rotates into value-oriented stocks, there are fewer and fewer names not participating in this bull market. Trying to find stocks that will go down seems insane to me when the overwhelming majority keep trucking higher.</p><h2>What Should We Expect From The Economy?</h2><p>If you look at economically-sensitive areas, I find most charts very encouraging, starting with home construction ($DJUSHB). The DJUSHB was our best-performing industry group last week. Check out its performance both short-term and long-term:</p><p><strong>DJUSHB - daily</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/48de9150-92d5-40b1-962f-d1658546d65d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSHB&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p34557930117&a=1638686595')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Since breaking out in late-November, the DJUSHB has been very strong on both an absolute and relative basis (blue directional lines). But check out those blue circles in late-December. That was when the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) hit its lowest level just beneath 3.80%. We saw the TNX climb 57 basis points after that and it's STILL 44 basis points higher. Yet the DJUSHB has been pushing higher on an absolute and relative basis with a much higher TNX. That tells me that the big Wall Street firms believe rates will be heading lower later in 2024 and into 2025.</p><p><strong>DJUSHB - weekly</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/a044b938-6caa-4ddd-839c-616748a52837.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSHB&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p73504274128&a=1638687534')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The massive move to the upside, again both on an absolute and relative basis, screams to me that the direction of annual INFLATION had more to do with DJUSHB performance than the direction of the TNX. Once the annual Core CPI rate printed that double top and rolled over, Wall Street could not have cared less about what the Fed (or CNBC) was saying. Lower inflation meant a MUCH BETTER environment for interest-rate sensitive areas.</p><p>If we look at transportation stocks ($TRAN), it wasn't quite so clear. Trucking ($DJUSTK) was very similar to home construction, mostly rising recently, but it's been a more difficult ride on the railroads ($DJUSRR). Check out these two 10-year weekly charts:</p><p><strong>Trucking ($DJUSTK)</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/34214006-1346-4d2e-a685-5a1db04ff37e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSTK&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62346080667&a=1638691392')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>Railroads ($DJUSRR)</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/c7809f74-4365-4357-8d70-04d945da3804.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSRR&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49175795080&a=1638694071')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Trucking is bullish and helping to lead stock prices higher. Railroads? Not so much. It's worthwhile noting, however, that railroads appear to be printing the right side of a bullish cup with handle continuation pattern. What we need to see from this group is an ultimate breakout of this pattern above 3800 and a turn higher in the relative strength panel, clearing the 0.72 relative resistance level.</p><h2>The Usual Suspects</h2><p>Semiconductors ($DJUSSC), software ($DJUSSW), and internet ($DJUSNS) stocks have provided steady market leadership since early 2023, but growth had fallen out of favor the past few weeks to a couple months, depending on which chart you look at. The internet group, though, rallied to a make a breakout to an all-time high, despite the fact that its relative strength line isn't also at an all-time high:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/e7f3aa8d-01d2-4ae3-8792-bd2ce6cfbc48.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSNS&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p78132991007&a=1638695709')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><h2>Weekly Market Recap</h2><p>Key signals are telling me to ride this bull higher! I discuss a few of those signals and more than a dozen individual stocks showing tremendous strength in this week's episode of EB Weekly Market Recap. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53jk8vNFzLU" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a> to watch the video and please leave me comments. It'll also help me if you could hit that "Like" button and subscribe to our channel in order to be notified when I post a video.</p><p>Thanks so much!</p><p>Happy trading!</p><p>Tom</p><p><br></p>U2 is one of my favorite bands and I can't help but think of their song, "With or Without You", when I look at an S&P 500 chart. This secular bull market is waiting for no one. You're either in it or you're not. There's nothing wrong with being a bit cautious from time to time, but remaining on the bearish side of the ledger or, worse yet, shorting stocks? In my opinion, it's financial suicide. As money rotates into value-oriented stocks, there are fewer and fewer names not participating in this bull market. Trying to find stocks that will go down seems insane to me when the...An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify MomentumArthur Hilltag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-23:post-273882024-03-23T11:42:33Z2024-03-23T11:42:33Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/47140d32-7c67-405b-bbc4-816018b0366f.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 250px;">The 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. As its name implies, it is a simple indicator that chartists can use for trend-following and momentum strategies. For trend-following, we just need to know where prices stand relative to the 200-day SMA. For momentum, we need to measure the distance between price and the 200-day SMA. Let's look at examples from two Nasdaq 100 stocks. </p><p>The first chart shows Apple (AAPL) with the 200-day SMA in red and the 5-day SMA in green. I also like to smooth closing prices with a 5-day SMA to reduce whipsaws (bad signals). The blue circle on the chart shows a whipsaw in late October. "Reduce" is the key word here because we can not fully eliminate whipsaws. The red circle shows the 5-day SMA breaking decisively below the 200-day SMA in late February. AAPL is in a downtrend and not being considered for <a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe-system-trader/" target="_blank">our dual-momentum strategies. </a></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/052b291f-087d-44ce-b603-d12d79287b21.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://schrts.co/MJszHDQq')"></p><p>The indicator window shows the percentage distance between the 5-day SMA and 200-day SMA. This indicator can further filter signals and reduce whipsaws by adding a bullish threshold at +1% and a bearish threshold at -1%. An uptrend signals when the 5-day is more than 1% above the 200-day and a downtrend signals when the 5-day is more than 1% below the 200-day. This little filter would have avoided the whipsaws in late October and mid March (red circles). </p><p>Chartists can also use Percent above MA (5,200) to quantify the strength of the trend. AAPL was still in an uptrend in early November, but the 5-day was only 5% above the 200-day SMA on November 9th (green line). Keep this number in mind as we move to the second chart, Broadcom (AVGO). The chart below shows AVGO triggering bullish in December 2022 as the 5-day SMA was more than 1% above the 200-day SMA (green circles). Note that this indicator is part of the <a href="https://stockcharts.com/marketplace/acp/trend-investor-pro.html" target="_blank">TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP. </a></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/23/a6c80b89-40c1-4102-a7f8-cccd800b1b42.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://schrts.co/PVpTMzBi')"></p><p>The green line marks November 9th and the 5-day SMA was 18% above its 200-day SMA on this date. This means it was much stronger than AAPL, which was only 5% above its 200-day. AVGO clearly won the momentum contest in early November. The stock was also breaking out to new highs in early November (red line). AVGO remains one of the leaders in the Nasdaq 100 because its 5-day SMA is almost 30% above its 200-day SMA. Chartists trading momentum strategies would still be focused on AVGO because it is in an uptrend and leading. This is the essence of dual-momentum. </p><p><a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe-system-trader/" target="_blank">TrendInvestorPro offers momentum-rotation strategies</a> that trade stocks in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. These strategies are fully systematic and trade on a weekly basis. Rankings and signals are posted every Saturday morning for subscribers.<a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe-system-trader/" target="_blank"> Click here to see performance metrics and learn more. </a></p><p>//////////////////////////////////////////////////</p>The 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. As its name implies, it is a simple indicator that chartists can use for trend-following and momentum strategies. For trend-following, we just need to know where prices stand relative to the 200-day SMA. For momentum, we need to measure the distance between price and the 200-day SMA. Let's look at examples from two Nasdaq 100 stocks. The first chart shows Apple (AAPL) with the 200-day SMA in red and the 5-day SMA in green. I also like to smooth closing prices with a 5-day SMA to reduce whipsaws (bad signals). The...Look Out Below! The Bear Case For AppleDavid Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-22:post-273872024-03-23T01:44:13Z2024-03-22T23:55:49Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/a51dae71-a5e3-4398-941e-133ef4aaf307.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;">The big news for Apple Inc. (AAPL) this week was a huge antitrust case from the US government. While the outcome of that particular situation is uncertain, one reality that has been quite certain is that AAPL is no longer pounding higher like its "magnificent" brethren.</p><p>Today we'll show how the technical picture for Apple has gone from bullish to neutral to bearish, why multiple timeframes can be super valuable in separating the signal from the noise, and how we can identify potential downside objectives for stocks in breakdown mode.</p><p>I was taught, "When in doubt, zoom out." So, with that in mind, let's start with the weekly chart.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/ac411ed8-6ebf-40b8-9f9e-2da2bbb29b5d.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Three things stand out as I review the last seven years of Apple's price history. First, the long-term story is quite constructive, with the stock going from below $40 to almost $200 in less than five years. The 150-week moving average, one of my favorite long-term gauges of trend, has been sloping higher, and numerous tests of the 150-week moving average on the way up have held just fine.</p><p>Second, we observe a couple breaks of the 40-week moving average, which I use on the weekly chart because it lines up well with the 200-day moving average. The last time we had a confirmed break of the 40-week moving average was in Q2 2022, which ended up leading to an additional decline until the eventual low in December 2022.</p><p>Finally, the PPO indicator generated a sell signal in July 2023, when the PPO line broke down through the red signal line. This pattern tends to occur after a long bull phase, and suggests that the July peak was a meaningful one for AAPL.</p><p>The next chart we'll review uses my <a href="https://youtu.be/w3dpdceUkeQ" target="_blank">Market Trend Model</a><span target="_blank">, a proprietary model based on a set of weekly exponential moving averages. This model gives a trend signal for three time frames: short-term (a couple days to a couple weeks), medium-term (a couple months), and long-term (over a year).</span></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/cc1890eb-3700-4821-acd2-64f7db4407c7.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>At this point, the model is reading short-term bearish, medium-term bearish, and long-term bullish. This lines up with our initial review of the weekly chart, in that the long-term story appears constructive, but the evidence has been mounting in recent months that the July 2023 high was a significant one for the stock. It's worth noting that the long-term model is very close to turning negative, which would be the first bearish signal since September 2022.</p><p>Now let's check the daily chart to see how last week's price action relates to the longer-term trends we've observed thus far.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/7d818c92-338b-4e62-917d-c6a93452755a.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here, we can see the double top pattern where the December 2023 high lined up almost perfectly with the July 2023 high. After a subsequent retest of this resistance level in January 2024, Apple dropped from a peak just below $200 to its recent swing low around $169.</p><p>Taking the January 2023 low and July 2023 high as a framework, we can use Fibonacci retracements to identify potential downside targets. The 38.2% level hits right around $169, which lines up with the September and October 2023 lows, as well as the recent price action for AAPL.</p><p>The red-dashed line represents a support level drawn from the January 2024 test of the 200-day moving average. There were four additional tests of this support level before AAPL finally broke below at the beginning of March. The last few weeks have seen Apple bounce between support around $169 and resistance around $180, giving us a fairly clear range with which to consider the next move for this key growth stock.</p><p>If AAPL would break below this confirmed support level around $169, that would represent a new 10-month low and open the door to further support around $160, and perhaps even the 61.8% retracement level around $152. If, however, investors become optimistic on Apple's prospects despite the recent antitrust claims, a break above $185 would mean a valid break above resistance as well as the crucial 200-day moving average. In that case, a retest of the all-time highs around $200 would seem a plausible scenario.</p><p>The most concerning feature of this chart, by far, would be the declining relative strength in the bottom panel. The downtrend in this series shows that while Apple has begun its short-term decline off all-time highs, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500. Owning names that underperform the S&P 500 is a sure way to underperform the S&P 500 in your portfolio!</p><p>While this week's news on Apple has caused many to revisit a bullish thesis on this long-time winning stock, a thorough review of the weekly and daily charts tells a potentially dire story that has been building for months. Mindful investors know that technicals tend to lead the fundamentals, and a weakening chart is usually a sign of an ominous future!</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/kgUHlNhWSnc" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in;">RR#6,</p><p>Dave</p><p><strong>P.S.</strong> Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my <a href="https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse" target="_blank">free behavioral investing course</a><span target="_blank">!</span></p><hr><p style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><strong>David Keller, CMT</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">Chief Market Strategist</p><p>StockCharts.com</p><hr><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: </em></strong><em>This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p style="margin: 6pt 0in;"><em>The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></p>The big news for Apple Inc. (AAPL) this week was a huge antitrust case from the US government. While the outcome of that particular situation is uncertain, one reality that has been quite certain is that AAPL is no longer pounding higher like its "magnificent" brethren.Today we'll show how the technical picture for Apple has gone from bullish to neutral to bearish, why multiple timeframes can be super valuable in separating the signal from the noise, and how we can identify potential downside objectives for stocks in breakdown mode.I was taught, "When in doubt, zoom out." So...The Stock Market This Week: What This Surging Bull MeansJayanthi Gopalakrishnantag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-22:post-273832024-03-22T23:02:43Z2024-03-22T23:02:43Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/71090c9f-54c8-4b55-b28f-cca9b0417517.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>It was an action-packed week in the stock market. The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and also indicated there could be three rate cuts this year. This gave the stock market a positive boost, and the broader indices—S&P 500 ($SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ)—notched record highs. Although the market ended the week mixed, all broader indices were up for the week.</p><p>The US economy is growing at a solid pace, the job market remains strong, and inflation is starting to slow, which is enough to keep investors optimistic that the economy will see a soft landing rather than a recession. While Fed Chairman Powell's speech after the FOMC decision was similar to previous speeches, the biggest takeaway this time is that Powell implied an easing in labor market tightness and stabilization in inflation. If the trend continues in this direction, the FOMC will likely cut interest rates three times later this year.</p><p>Powell emphasized that inflation could return if the Fed eases too much too soon. And if interest rate cuts are implemented too late, that could also be a harmful situation. Incoming data will continue to be assessed, since there needs to be greater confidence that things are moving in the right direction before bringing down interest rates.</p><p>Interestingly, the recent inflation data, which came in higher than expected, didn't change things much. The Fed is confident that inflation will come back to 2%. This was good news for the market, and especially for the Financial sector.</p><p>The weekly chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) rose sharply after the Fed's meeting. Even though it pulled back on Friday, XLF was up for the week. A slight pullback is healthy for something that has seen a steep ascent. The chart below shows that XLF is well above its support level at around $37.75, which is when the ETF broke out above a consolidation pattern.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/35bd4351-ebac-4dbf-9c29-e5f757611046.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF (XLF). The Financial sector has gained bullish traction and is trading well above its near-term support level.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p>It's worth adding XLF to your ChartList. If XLF pulls back further, followed by a reversal with a follow-through, then Financials could move higher, especially for the big banks. The regional banks still have some catching up—the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE is down about 5.6% for the year. This could change once the Fed starts cutting interest rates. Small businesses will apply for loans, and demand for mortgage and auto loans could increase.</p><p>Viewing a PerfChart of the S&P 500, XLF, and KRE over one year reveals some interesting data points. Financials have marginally outperformed the S&P 500, and regional banks still have much catching up to do.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/3ef122ee-ee53-466c-bf17-3fd3c53f9e5a.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">CHART 2. PERFCHART OF S&P 500, XLF, AND KRE. Financials have marginally outperformed the performance of the S&P 500 in the last year. Regional banks are at around 16% over one year.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><hr><h3 style="color:red;">How to View a PerfChart</h3><ol><li>From <strong>Your Dashboard,</strong> click on the<strong> Charts & Tools</strong> tab.</li><li>In the PerfCharts card, enter symbols $SPX, XLF, KRE</li><li>Hit return.</li></ol><hr><h2>The US Dollar and Gold</h2><p>Besides the Fed, central banks worldwide also seemed to be more dovish. This was reflected in the US dollar action. On Friday, the US Dollar Index ($USD) gained strength as it approached its short-term resistance of 104.60.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/dbff2561-f56e-41eb-a2f8-6964dcebcd6a.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">CHART 3. WEEKLY CHART OF THE US DOLLAR. The US dollar edged higher, coming close to its short-term resistance level.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p>A breakout above this level could take it to its next resistance level at around 106.50. If $USD breaks above this level, it could hit its 113–114 level. But the likelihood of the US dollar continuing to move higher could be low once the Fed starts to cut rates. That's when you'll need to watch the support level at 99.5 level.</p><p>Gold has also been trading higher. After moving sideways for the past few years, the price of the shiny metal broke out above its trading range and hit an all-time high of $2225.30 per ounce on Thursday (see monthly chart of gold futures below).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/773a1473-8578-440e-b129-4b6c6d0f0d47.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">CHART 4. MONTHLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold futures broke out of a sideways pattern and hit an all-time high.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p>Rising gold prices go against the idea of inflation stabilizing, which could be why gold prices pulled back to around $2164 on Friday. But it's still above its $2150 support level (see daily chart of $GOLD below). It remains to be seen if gold prices will fall below support. If they do, the next support level is well below prevailing levels. We're talking $2028 levels.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/bc482d4f-02e7-4d6a-af1e-63eafa551956.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">CHART 5. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices pulled back, but are still above near-term support.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><h2>In Other News</h2><p>Bitcoin had a pretty volatile week. After hitting a high of 73,802.64, $BTCUSD retreated over 13% to close at 63890.87.</p><p>Cannabis stocks moved higher on the heels of partial legalization of cannabis in Germany that's expected to go into effect on April 1. Shares of Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Canopy Growth (CGC), Tilray (TLRY), and Cronos Group (CRON) all soared on Friday.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/21855fa4-b1a1-4fc0-8ea1-5e0ae3b4c558.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: right; width: 550px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/')"></p><p>That said, equity markets are still strong, with the uptrend intact. The positive news is that the rally is spread out across a broader spectrum of the market instead of a concentration in a handful of tech stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is trading slightly above 13, indicating that investors continue to be complacent.</p><p>Next week will be a short trading week, since the stock and bond markets are closed on Good Friday. There are some key economic data to watch for next week, but, given recent Fed remarks, they may not move the stock market much unless the data is drastically different than expected.</p><h2>End-of-Week Wrap-Up</h2><ul><li>S&P 500 closes down 0.14% at 5,234.18, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.77% at 39,475.90; Nasdaq Composite up 0.16% at 16,428.82</li><li>$VIX up 1.16% at 13.07</li><li>Best performing sector for the week: Communications Services</li><li>Worst performing sector for the week: Real Estate</li><li>Top 5 Large Cap <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank">SCTR</a><span target="_blank"> stocks: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR); Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI); Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN); Veritiv Holdings, LLC (VRT); Williams Sonoma (WSM)</span></li></ul><p><strong>On the Radar Next Week</strong></p><ul><li>March Consumer Confidence</li><li>February New Home Sales</li><li>January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price</li><li>February PCE Price Index</li><li>Fed Chair Powell speech</li><li>Fed speeches by Waller, Bostic, and Cook</li><li>March Chicago PMI</li></ul><hr><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p>It was an action-packed week in the stock market. The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and also indicated there could be three rate cuts this year. This gave the stock market a positive boost, and the broader indices—S&P 500 ($SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ)—notched record highs. Although the market ended the week mixed, all broader indices were up for the week.The US economy is growing at a solid pace, the job market remains strong, and inflation is starting to slow, which is enough to keep investors optimistic that the...MEM TV: Get In EARLY! These Areas Are Seeing LIFT OFFMary Ellen McGonagletag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-22:post-273862024-03-22T22:57:32Z2024-03-22T22:57:32Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/c02d7428-0cd7-4dfd-87bb-8124418287c0.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-mem-edge.html')"></p><p target="_blank">In this episode of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The MEM Edge</em><span target="_blank">, Mary Ellen reviews what's shaping up in the broader markets after the Fed announced their rate cut plans. She also shares how to use ETFs to shape your investment decisions for the longer term. In addition, Mary Ellen also reveals how to uncover downtrend reversals.</span></p><p target="_blank">This video originally premiered March 22, 2024. Click here or on the above image to watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-mem-edge.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>MEM Edge </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV.</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/LVMtjsG5wck" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The MEM Edge </em>premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrTQoftiLdfZvWMmBcd5cW2Z" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p><p target="_blank">If you're looking for stocks to invest in, <a href="https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report/" target="_blank">be sure to check ou</a><a href="https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report/" target="_blank">t the MEM Edge Report!</a> This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.</p><p><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/08/07/f35324a2-d72b-40eb-9524-680243b361cc.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report/')"></p>In this episode of StockCharts TV's The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews what's shaping up in the broader markets after the Fed announced their rate cut plans. She also shares how to use ETFs to shape your investment decisions for the longer term. In addition, Mary Ellen also reveals how to uncover downtrend reversals.This video originally premiered March 22, 2024. Click here or on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV.New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at...The Best Leading Indicator for StocksDavid Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-22:post-273852024-03-22T22:48:48Z2024-03-22T22:48:48Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/38720403-d52b-4aaa-a2a1-0b488a11a584.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave brings you another mailbag show! Explore the differences between RSI and Accumulation Distribution for stocks. Compare the benefits of SharpCharts or ACP on StockCharts. Understand the nuances between Keltner and Bollinger Bands. Discover why considering sector trends and using adjusted data for resistance levels are crucial, and much, much more!</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 22, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/QqaEnf4A9z8" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave brings you another mailbag show! Explore the differences between RSI and Accumulation Distribution for stocks. Compare the benefits of SharpCharts or ACP on StockCharts. Understand the nuances between Keltner and Bollinger Bands. Discover why considering sector trends and using adjusted data for resistance levels are crucial, and much, much more!This video originally premiered on March 22, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday...Energy Heats UpBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-22:post-273812024-03-22T18:57:20Z2024-03-22T18:57:20Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/b5f9ceea-d341-4c0c-b1c6-f0562e764c52.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 153px;">Crude Oil struck an intraday low on December 13th of 2023, the same day as Fed Chair Powell's notable press conference. This concluded a decline from approximately $95 (at the end of the 3rd quarter) to under $68 (near the end of the 4th quarter). After that Fed meeting and press conference the market priced in as many as five ¼ point Fed Funds interest rate cuts in 2024-25. This optimism has waned as crude oil began building a range-bound structure that appears to be an Accumulation base. Now this Accumulation appears nearly complete.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/a8d65e3f-2ecb-49d2-ba5c-912bd37662fc.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Crude Oil, Continuous Contract. PnF Swing Trade Case Study. 1 - Box Method </span></p><p>Wall Street's enthusiasm for future interest rate cuts is deteriorating with recent higher oil prices. Rising energy prices are a leading cause for inflation as measured by CPI, PPI, PCE and others.</p><p>Producer Prices (PPI) have recently been reported and were surprisingly double the forecast of economist's projections. Inflation is heating up again. The FOMC has headwinds that will temper their ability to dramatically reduce interest rates this year. </p><p>A swing trading Point and Figure study of the Accumulation provides an estimate of the upside potential for crude oil. This is a conservative PnF count which could be extended. If the objectives are fulfilled larger counts can be considered. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/d6762f68-d38e-4f34-ba95-f64a282d1ffe.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">VanEck Oil Services Group ETF (OIH). Three PnF Swing Counts</span></p><p>There have been several swing trading opportunities in the oil services industry group. Here are three PnF counts. Two of them came within one box of fulfilling the minimum projections. The most recent count is still unfinished. Is it possible a larger ‘Campaign Count' using 3-box reversal method is developing? </p><p><br></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/22/0ce1a6d2-e96d-4f8b-83c0-477929e17db8.jpg"></p><p><br></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com//:0">Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>Range-Bound since December.</li><li>Local Climax from $315 to $335 which is just above the Resistance zone.</li><li>Volatility remains elevated in the trading range. Less volatility on pullbacks would suggest absorption.</li><li>Relative Strength basing after downtrend. Attributes of leadership emerging.</li><li>Accumulation range could grow larger.</li></ul><p>The vertical chart has the recent Distribution and Accumulation structures. They have classic Wyckoff attributes. The Sign of Strength (SoS) advance above the resistance line of the Accumulation may have the character of a local Buying Climax. This would be a place for OIH to pause before continuing higher. A correction back into the Accumulation trading range is very possible. The less correction of price the better. Any pullback would make the PnF count larger. The Relative Strength peaked in September of last year and has been in a well-defined downtrend since. This trend has been reversed upward and bodes well for price strength in the future.</p><p>Take time to evaluate the other industry groups in the Energy Sector as they have a family resemblance to the Oil Services Group. </p><h4>Power Charting Final Episode</h4><p>The 228th and final episode of Power Charting TV has been posted. To the many of you who have watched these videos, asked great questions and made suggestions... a huge Thank You! I have always visualized us being in the classroom setting together discussing all-things Wyckoff. The thrust and goal of these sessions has been to convey the concepts, techniques and nuances of the Wyckoff Method. As you all know, but please allow me to repeat, Wyckoff is a complete Method for trading markets. The goal of all Wyckoffians is to be on the Path to Trading Mastery. So many of you have shared your work and your progress is impressive. My plan is to post these written blogs on a more frequent basis, so stay tuned. Please sign up for email notification if you have not done so already.</p><p>There are excellent resources to support you on your mastery path. Join Roman and me for the weekly Wyckoff Market Discussion (Wednesday's at 3pm PT). Below is a link for a discount to WMD for my readers. Check out additional resources at Wyckoff Analytics (<a href=" https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">click this link to learn more</a>). Consider taking Roman's ‘Wyckoff Trading Courses'. </p><p style="margin: 0in;">All the Best,</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Bruce</p><p style="margin: 0in;">@rdwyckoff</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Join Roman Bogomazov and Me for the Weekly Wyckoff Market Discussions.</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Special WMD Discount Coupon for Power Charting watchers. Be sure to add the coupon code (powercharting) at checkout:</p><p style="margin: 0in;" target="_blank"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;" target="_blank"><a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank"><strong>https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/</strong></a></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Power Charting Video</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/azf7EYQ-YXY" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in;"><span class="image-caption">Power Charting Video: Gold Shines (March 8, 2024)</span></p><p><br></p>Crude Oil struck an intraday low on December 13th of 2023, the same day as Fed Chair Powell's notable press conference. This concluded a decline from approximately $95 (at the end of the 3rd quarter) to under $68 (near the end of the 4th quarter). After that Fed meeting and press conference the market priced in as many as five ¼ point Fed Funds interest rate cuts in 2024-25. This optimism has waned as crude oil began building a range-bound structure that appears to be an Accumulation base. Now this Accumulation appears nearly complete.Crude Oil, Continuous Contract. PnF Swing Trade Case...Post-Fed Rally Ignites Flurry of New HighsDavid Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-22:post-273802024-03-22T00:16:12Z2024-03-22T00:16:12Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/21/e799e08b-d410-452a-a4b4-098b5dd1e3f0.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave comments on AAPL's breakdown on antitrust legislation, the breakouts occurring in the homebuilder space, and how to play names like WDC gapping into key resistance levels. Guest Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners compares the S&P 500 in 2024 to 2005 as the low volatility "everything rally" appears to be in full force.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 21, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/bR8xrTNbxhM" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave comments on AAPL's breakdown on antitrust legislation, the breakouts occurring in the homebuilder space, and how to play names like WDC gapping into key resistance levels. Guest Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners compares the S&P 500 in 2024 to 2005 as the low volatility "everything rally" appears to be in full force.This video originally premiered on March 21, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You...