Canada has been lagging behind almost every other nation in the world in terms of stock market performance. The Canadian market peaked on February 21st and we have drifted down and sideways for the last 6 months. The chart for the $TSX has some encouraging signs on it. Let's start with the Bullish Percent Index. The red horizontal line is placed based on the current level. The 2004 pullback as well as the 2010 pullback, both had the same sort of pullback as the Canadian $TSX in the bottom panel. The other two drops in 2011 and 2014, marked by the blue vertical lines, were much more sudden drops and the Bulish Percent dropped past this level. Based on a couple of samples, this could be a level to expect the Canadian to re-engage in the global bull market.
This recording has some bright spots showing up in Commodity related countries with the Brazil market breaking out to 6-year highs. That is very bullish for commodities. The real problem is that a lot of the Canadian sector charts are at pivotal levels. If they can hold and break higher, that will be bullish. For some reason, a lot of the defensive sectors are also setting up topping patterns. This is puzzling. If they are breaking down, are we about to see broad rotation into the primary Canadian sectors? Or is everything lining up to sell off? In a recording with a lot of potential setups, it shows why now is the time to watch this market closely.
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA
The Canadian Technician Video Recording is available. Two charts that were very interesting were the Canadian Financials and the Consumer Discretionary charts. If they could break out of the momentum trends they are in, in might be a beautiful rally into the fourth quarter. But the charts are currently on the fence, with a drought on one side and greener pastures on the other.
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA
Agriculture stocks have been on a slow burn for shareholders. Continually drifting lower, frustrating even the most patient investors, it's been a difficult few years. Perhaps there is a light at the end of the field, or is it just another firefly?
Let me start with our Canadian Agriculture plays and work into the US market.
Agrium on the $TSX, AGU.TO (also on NYSE at AGU). The SCTR is sun-rising above 30 from an oversold level. The Full Stochastics have turned up like weeds in summer. The MACD has also flipped onto a buy signal. That is the optimistic side. The Relative Strength is still very, very weak. The volume is meagre and the the price is below the long term 40 WMA. Some signs of a sunrise, but we are not in the heat of the day yet.