The Canadian Technician

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018).

Latest Posts

The Canadian Technician

Bullish Indicators Pop - US Market Review

by Greg Schnell

This week, the story is the confirmation of a breakdown in the US Dollar. While $USD hasn't been going anywhere fast, the attempts to get through the 97.5 level appear to be in the rearview mirror.  This move is important to the emerging markets, as they tend to do well with a dropping US Dollar. One of the ideas would be to get long unhedged emerging markets. This will move up as the market moves; the added benefit of a dropping dollar can also add a little torque to the trade.  Here is a ratio of the emerging market ETF Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Golden Rocket?

by Greg Schnell

Gold stocks have been setting up over the last few weeks and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) closed the day up after the June Fed meeting. While this push looks extended on a 60-minute chart, Gold Miners have been individually breaking out on a few stocks each day. The Bullish Percent Index for gold mining stocks had recently moved above 50, suggesting the possibility that this was going to be an industry-wide thrust. Over the last 7 years, we have only had two big thrusts in the BPI that meaningfully soared above the 50 percent level. It has been a tough climate for investing in gold Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The World Waits - US Market Review

by Greg Schnell

The market has been moving sideways all week. With Semiconductors rolling over this week and the energy complex failing to get a bid, it seemed the market was not ready to break higher. Copper was flat on the week, Lumber soared and Natural Gas tried to bounce off three-year lows. Steel, Lithium and Rare Earth Metals  were up slightly on the week, but one look at the charts suggests nothing there to get excited about yet. While Gold was down marginally on the week, the Gold Miners were up almost 2%. Silver Miners also held up very well. Lastly the Marijuana names continue to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Commodity Stocks Try To Bounce - Canadian Market Review

by Greg Schnell

After the Canadian market drifted lower through the month of May, the first few days of June have seen a bounce. As the G20 finance people meet in Japan, with promises for more QE and Fed chairman Jay Powell offering up potential rate cuts as the market sits within a few percent of the all time highs, the markets have tried to avoid pricing in the ramifications from slower trade globally. The Canadian market couldn't be more muted in the three big sectors, Financials, Energy and Materials. However, within Technology, Shopify (SHOP.TO) has soared in the 6 months since Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A Bullish Signal That Has Not Shown Up In A Year!

by Greg Schnell

I have been very pessimistic of late, as the combination of declining breadth, a bond market firing off signals, and commodities plummeting all adds up to an ugly situation. At the end of May, a significant number of indices worldwide all closed below the 20-month moving average. That definitely shows weakness. More importantly, a lot of them moved below in May. Above: $SPX, $COMPQ, Canada, Australia, Russia, Brazil, India Below: $INDU, $RUT, $NYA, Germany, France, England, Spain, Italy, Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan. Five days into June, a lot of Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Faang Goes Bang! $FB $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGL

by Greg Schnell

Big names fell big on Monday. In particular, the large tech names tumbled in unison on what proved to be a miserable day in the technology sector. Facebook got a face wash, finishing down 26% from the highs. The 2018 high has the chart looking messy, down a long way from the highs of 2018. The SCTR is leaking substantially and the uptrend in the relative strength is broken. Volumes soared on this down Monday. The PPO has moved back below zero, which is not bullish. The good news is that the $160 level looks like potential support. Apple kicked off their Read More 

The Canadian Technician

May Month-End Trauma - Market Roundup

by Greg Schnell

After April closed near the highs, May reversed a lot of good work on many exchanges around the world. I want to start with those that are bullish, as they really have me puzzled. Australia, Brazil and Russia, in particular, have made higher highs or held up; Canada, to a certain extent, has not dropped precipitously. Russia and Australia both had the highest monthly closes in at least a year, while Brazil was very close to making new closing highs. What generally makes these four countries similar is the heavy focus on commodities in their indexes Read More 

The Canadian Technician

From The 3-Month To The 30-Year! Yikes! - Market Roundup

by Greg Schnell

Across my macro bundle of charts, which includes equities, commodities, bonds and currencies, many, many charts are trying to hold trend lines. I recently tweeted on Twitter that I currently have 40 or 50 charts that are positioned for a major breakdown.  Canadian Grizzlies - May 22, 2019, Photo by Greg Schnell In equities, the $SPX sits just above 2800, with less than 57% of the stocks on a buy signal, down from 79% in mid-April. Perhaps the real problem is not the breadth, but the stickiness of the breadth. When 80% of the $SPX are on a buy signal, that is undeniably Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canada Pauses, Energy Drops - Market Review

by Greg Schnell

Following its high on April 23 (just a few days after Options Expiration), the Canadian market endured a failed breakout. A month later, the market is still below the breakout level. The Canadian index chart looks a little bit stronger, as two pieces of good news - the surge in Westjet on buyout news and a surge in Air Transat on a proposed buyout by Air Canada - helped to bounce a flat market and push it higher last week. As the market consolidates here, the momentum shown on the PPO is near zero. This will mark a pivotal spot if we can't rally back above the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Lower Highs, Lower Lows

by Greg Schnell

After opening with a sharply down Monday, the market spent the rest of last week trying to make up lost ground. On Friday, the morning started off weak, rallied through the morning and then fell, finishing near the day's lows into the close. Friday's reversing price action is not an optimistic finish for the week, as the market clearly lost some of its enthusiasm. We ultimately closed below the 50-day moving average on the week. Looking at the bigger picture, we can see that breadth is still constrained. Strong breadth can be seen Read More 

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