The Canadian Technician

Canadian Technician Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-12-05

This week's version of the Canadian Technician Recording with Greg Schnell has lots of news. In two weeks, the Canadian market has had a major change in underlying strength. While its not outright bearish, it is definitely cautionary. Very frustrating watching the US market continue to put in higher highs and this week Canada is making lower lows. As well, the Advance-Decline information confirms the problem. If you are bullish on the Canadian stock market this is a good week to check in. I repeatedly suggest not selling everything, but add some protection in the form of options to help hold your positions through this period of volatility.

Canadian Technician Recording with Greg Schnell 2017-12-05 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

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Gold Wobbles To End The Month

Gold looks to close November near 1-month lows just days from being near 6-week highs. It's not that it has moved a lot, but the range is so tight. The Elliotticians are bearish on Gold here. With the bond market breaking down in price, and yields rising rapidly, Gold appears to want to follow bond prices lower. Then Yen also dropped which is a correlated trade with Gold.  

I have been positioning for a bull run in Gold coming into the end of November. Seasonality for Gold in December is good. Obviously, the last two days brings that into doubt. Interestingly, the $USD has traded lower intraday for the last two days as well. That is a bit odd as they usually move in opposite directions.


First, look at GLD to get the price of Gold intraday today. It would be fair to say we are in a sideways trading range for the last two months. However, that is a pretty swift move from one side of the range to the other.

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The Canadian Technician Video Recording 2017-11-21

The Canadian Technician video recording for 2017-11-21 is now available.

This broadcast I tried a few of the new features on StockCharts.com. In concert with the sector analysis, I went in the SCTR rankings in a few of the sectors to help identify interesting stocks setting up. Feel free to email me your comments. Might be a little small if viewed on a phone but should be great on a tablet or computer.

Canadian Technician Video Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-11-21 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA

Canadian Banks - Ready To Run?

The Canadian Banks are trying to turn up. The group has been under pressure lately, but perhaps its time to buy?

Here's BMO. The Canadian banks have not had this price action weakness in 5 years. The SCTR is bouncing from its lowest level on the chart. Nice positive divergence on the Stochastics. The PPO looks ready to break the downward trend.

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The Canadian Technician Recording 2017-09-05

Well, September starts with a flurry. Banks are breaking down, and gold is breaking out. The story with oil continues to be influenced by winds of a hurricane. First it was Hurricane Harvey and this week the Gulf of Mexico is seeing the winds of Hurricane Irma. With a significant volume of off-shore and on-shore production shut in, we should continue to see some volatility in price. 

A lot of the Canadian sectors are failing at their trend lines, so that is a bigger concern for the broad index.

 

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August Month End Shows Some Big Picture Set Ups

Canada has been lagging behind almost every other nation in the world in terms of stock market performance. The Canadian market peaked on February 21st and we have drifted down and sideways for the last 6 months. The chart for the $TSX has some encouraging signs on it. Let's start with the Bullish Percent Index.  The red horizontal line is placed based on the current level. The 2004 pullback as well as the 2010 pullback, both had the same sort of pullback as the Canadian $TSX in the bottom panel. The other two drops in 2011 and 2014, marked by the blue vertical lines, were much more sudden drops and the Bulish Percent dropped past this level. Based on a couple of samples, this could be a level to expect the Canadian to re-engage in the global bull market.

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The Canadian Technician Video Recording 2017-08-22

This recording has some bright spots showing up in Commodity related countries with the Brazil market breaking out to 6-year highs. That is very bullish for commodities. The real problem is that a lot of the Canadian sector charts are at pivotal levels. If they can hold and break higher, that will be bullish. For some reason, a lot of the defensive sectors are also setting up topping patterns. This is puzzling. If they are breaking down, are we about to see broad rotation into the primary Canadian sectors? Or is everything lining up to sell off? In a recording with a lot of potential setups, it shows why now is the time to watch this market closely.

Canadian Technician Video Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-08-22 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA