The Canadian Technician

The Canadian Technician Video Recording 2017-08-08

The Canadian Technician Video Recording is available.  Two charts that were very interesting were the Canadian Financials and the Consumer Discretionary charts. If they could break out of the momentum trends they are in, in might be a beautiful rally into the fourth quarter. But the charts are currently on the fence, with a drought on one side and greener pastures on the other.

Canadian Technician Video Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-08-08 from on Vimeo.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA


Fertilizer Related Stocks Start Showing Green Shoots

Agriculture stocks have been on a slow burn for shareholders. Continually drifting lower, frustrating even the most patient investors, it's been a difficult few years. Perhaps there is a light at the end of the field, or is it just another firefly?

Let me start with our Canadian Agriculture plays and work into the US market.

Agrium on the $TSX, AGU.TO (also on NYSE at AGU). The SCTR is sun-rising above 30 from an oversold level. The Full Stochastics have turned up like weeds in summer. The MACD has also flipped onto a buy signal. That is the optimistic side. The Relative Strength is still very, very weak. The volume is meagre and the the price is below the long term 40 WMA. Some signs of a sunrise, but we are not in the heat of the day yet.

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Canadian Airlines Start To Soar With The US Airlines

Air Canada (AC.TO) has been flying (not good to say an airline is 'on fire'), but the other airlines are starting to get the memo. Looking through all of the Canadian airlines, the group looks ready to push higher. Not just one winner, but five winners. The US Airlines have been breaking out too.

Let's start with Air Canada's leadership (AC.TO).

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Canadian Market In Correction

After months of watching the oil stocks underperform crude, the broader Canadian $TSX was able to withstand some of the selling. Now the breadth of the market has shrunk considerably. All market breadth measures are weak.

The chart below shows the Bullish Percent Index ($BPTSE). This measures the number of stocks on a buy signal. The blue vertical lines on the chart show when the $BPTSE breaks below the 40 Week Moving Average shown in green from a really high level. The correction is usually considerable. This correction has just started.

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Mid Year Update On Canadian Banks

The Canadian banks have underperformed the $SPX so far this year. They have drifted lower since March but they have some interesting traits on the indicators pointing to an interesting time now. Two have yields of 3.65%, two have 3.83% and CIBC has 4.65%.

First of all, BMO. The yield is 3.8% which is very big. I'll come back to the SCTR but the downslope in relative trend was broken this week. While that is hardly a starting point, it coincides with the price breaking back above the 200 DMA. The Friday volume was great and the MACD crossed above the signal line. Looking at the SCTR, I do like when a large cap stock in Canada like a major bank dips below 25 and then starts to climb back up through 30. 

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