Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Tushar Chande
About the author: , PhD, MBA, is the inventor behind an impressive collection of technical indicators, including the Aroon and Stochastic RSI. He has written several books, holds both a PhD in Engineering and an MBA in Finance, and has over two decades of experience trading the financial markets. Follow Tushar in this blog as he highlights his new "Trend Meter" indicator and shares his analysis of current market conditions.

Latest Posts

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Using Momentum ETFs

by Tushar Chande

Momentum ETFs are a useful way to invest in strongly trending markets.  Here momentum is generally measured as a combination of monthly returns over different periods.  Since capitalization is always a concern for the larger ETFs, the larger the capitalization and the stronger the recent price performance, the larger the allocation to the stock.  In general, when market trend strongly, momentum ETFs are expected to do well (see Chart 1). Chart 1: Momentum ETFs have typically done better than the $SPX as we should expect from their design. Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Re-optimizing the 4 Percent Rule (Initial Withdrawal Rate) for Low Inflation

by Tushar Chande

This post is for retirees or those near retirement.  All of you will have to make some decisions on how to manage withdrawals from your retirement portfolio.  The Bengen 4 Percent Rule is the industry standard, which states that an initial withdrawal rate of 4 percent of starting capital, adjusted for inflation each year, will be a "safe rate" that will "ensure" that you will "not run out of money" over a 30-year retirement horizon.  Naturally, the higher the "safe" withdrawal rate, the larger your spending budget, the "better off" you will be. Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Micron Technology (MU) Captures The Essence of this Rally (Or, Market Trend Check 10/31/2017)

by Tushar Chande

The rally in Micron since the breakout I pointed to in early September (see Chart 9 of that post) neatly summarizes the story of this market. In the composite charts below, at left is the initial breakout, on September 14.  I felt this breakout was an important sign that the market would rally.  On the right is Micron today, rallying mightily, just like the rest of the Technology sector. That in short is what the market has done and is doing, with a more detailed analysis below. The breakout in Micron Technology (MU) was a key sign of the rally to follow Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Amazon (AMZN) Large Upside Gap Meets Jumbo Gap Criterion

by Tushar Chande

Today's jump in Amazon (AMZN) after their  blow-out earnings announcement yesterday meets the jumbo gap criterion I had analyzed earlier, with an open well above the prior day's high plus the 10-day average true range.  It is nice when a stock actually follows through on one's analysis, and Amazon's price action today confirms my earlier chart analysis from October, 05.  I revisit the chart and show the Jumbo Scan from earlier today, which shows a number of big technology stocks that announced good earnings yesterday.   Chart Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Intel (INTC) Breaks Out (for Real)

by Tushar Chande

Yes, Intel has broken out, for real this time.  After a couple of years of consolidation, and building a long base, Intel is launching upwards with confidence. Of course, Intel has lagged the SOXX index, to which it belongs, because the index has been rallying for well over a year.  But after reporting higher earnings and raising guidance, this breakout looks like it is for real.    Chart 1: This breakout in Intel looks like it will last, with the CTM above 80 for about a month, and the company reporting higher earnings and raising future earnings guidance Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Constellation Brands (STZ): Strongest Stock in the Weakest Sector (Within the S&P 500)

by Tushar Chande

It is quite unusual when a major S&P sector is consolidating (or not trending strongly) and yet has stocks within it that are moving up nicely.  It is worth a look whether one is a counter-trend/value buyer or a momentum player.  I begin by using the Chande Trend Meter (CTM) to rank the major sectors within the S&P 500 itself (see Chart 1) and comparing their performance to other key indexes.  The CTM for the Dow Industrials, SPX and XLK, the Technology Select sector SPDR, are above 90, which means they are trending strongly.  Three other sectors are between 80 Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Trend Analysis of the US Dollar and Guggenheim CurrencyShares ETFs

by Tushar Chande

As currency markets respond to political developments in the US and Europe, and as central banks adjust their posture, the dollar is searching for a firmer bottom.  I take a closer look at the US Dollar and currency ETFs, i.e. ETFs long a foreign currency and short the US dollar.   Chart 1: A trend-analysis of Bonds, Gold, S&P 500 and the US Dollar summarizes the current trend situation.  The time interval starts at 25-days at the top and doubles at each step from top to bottom.    Trend Summary of Key US Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Scan Code: Point and Figure Plus Chande Trend Meter

by Tushar Chande

Topics: 1)Scan code for Quadruple-top Breakout Plus Chande Trend Meter; 2)Is Amazon a Counter-Trend Buy?; 3) Market review: the Market follows-through on the breakout (gold retreats, high-yield bonds rally, relative-strength of European bourses flat-lines, breadth breaks out).  A more detailed discussion of each topic is set forth below. A Quadruple-Top Breakout on a Point-and-Figure Chart   Concept of the Scan Here is a simple scan code which combines two types of breakout searches: a quadruple-top point-and-figure breakout with Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

SPX 2663? (A Market Review in 10 Charts)

by Tushar Chande

The post-election rally is firmly on track, closely following the spaghetti model I showed in April.  Predictions are prone to failure, and it is certainly a very big if, but if the market continues to track this model, it works out to a year-end target for the $SPX of 2663. Can we get there? As usual, the market has us on the horns of a dilemma.   Photo courtesy pexels.com   Post-Election Rally Stays on Average Track Now that the fourth quarter is here, which is usually bullish, even with all the volatility of October Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

There must be 50 Ways to Leave a Trade (Or, The Two Ratios You Need to Evaluate Your Trading)

by Tushar Chande

"The problem is all inside your head/ she said to me" is how Paul Simon starts his 1975 hit, for there must be fifty ways to leave your lover, he speculates.  He was not crooning about trading, but he might well have been.  Unless you are a systematic and highly disciplined trader, you have probably discovered fifty ways to exit a trade. Well if not fifty, surely more than ten.  The actual effect is to shorten the length of your average trade and thus possibly degrade your ratio of average winning trade to average losing trade. But why is this significant?  Let me offer Read More 

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