Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Tushar Chande
About the author: , PhD, MBA, is the inventor behind an impressive collection of technical indicators, including the Aroon and Stochastic RSI. He has written several books, holds both a PhD in Engineering and an MBA in Finance, and has over two decades of experience trading the financial markets. Follow Tushar in this blog as he highlights his new "Trend Meter" indicator and shares his analysis of current market conditions.

Latest Posts

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Back to Basics: Understand the Duration of Your Bond ETF or Bond Clone

by Tushar Chande

The declines in global bond markets this week points out the need to be aware of your bond ETFs duration, which measures the sensitivity of the bond or ETF to changes in interest rates.  Duration is expressed in years, and the longer the duration, the greater the change in the price of the bond (or bond ETF) for a given change in interest rates.  You may also own bond clones, or ETFs which are closely linked to the bond market, such as an ETF with utilities.  Since such funds have stocks, there is no way to  know their effective duration.  I looked at the universe Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Jim Cramer's Secret Stock Picking Method (With ScanCode)

by Tushar Chande

I was shocked, yes shocked, when the energetic Mr. Cramer revealed his secret stock selection method on CNBC.  Naturally, this was too good an opportunity not to code it immediately into the StockCharts scan engine.  However, you will run into the usual problems of running a mechanical scan versus Cramer's discretionary entry process. Anyway, here it is.  Now, why was I shocked? Well, more on that later.       The Cramer Process Apparently, Cramer begins this Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

78% Chance of Positive Second Half Returns

by Tushar Chande

I looked back on historical S&P 500 returns since 1950 to study H2 performance (return over the second half of the year) given a positive performance over the first half (H1) of the year, and the data are encouraging.  There is a 78% chance of positive second-half (H2) returns in 2017, now that we have positive returns over the first half (H1) of the year (see Chart 1).  Overall US economic activity, as measured by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is positive, and supportive of higher equity prices (see Chart 2). Chart 1: Since 1950, when H1 returns were positive, H2 Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Is the Summer Slowdown Here?

by Tushar Chande

Yesterday's selling has shifted the short-term trends across many key indexes, equal weight ETFs and capital weighted ETFs. Is this the start of the summer slow down?  The S&P 500 closed below its 25-day, half-width bands for the first time since mid-May and the path of least resistance for most of my key sectors has now turned negative on the short-term. Chart 1: The SPX has closed below the short-term trend-following model bands, using a 25-day moving average. However, the trend is still up because the moving average is above the bands.   Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Find the Gap: What Are Jumbo Gaps? Can You Profit From Jumbo Gaps?

by Tushar Chande

Are jumbo gaps an oxymoron like "jumbo shrimp"?  I found some similarity between shrimp sizes and normalized up-side gaps (see Chart 1).   Do such jumbo gaps offer trading opportunities? I tried to quantify just that, and here is what I found. By the way, just as the number of shrimp per pound drops rapidly once the size goes above "Jumbo", similarly the frequency of occurrence of upside gaps (normalized by the 10-day average true range) drops rapidly past some critical "Jumbo" size.  I decided to focus my exploration on such jumbo gaps.   Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Back to Basics: Changing Your CandleGlance ChartStyle

by Tushar Chande

A user asked me how I added the Chande Trend Meter to my CandleGlance view configuration.  So this blog post goes back to basics and shows step-by-step how easy it is to change the default Candle Glance configuration in StockCharts.  It will make you appreciate how simple yet powerful StockCharts is.   First, set up a chart with the indicators of your choice displayed as you wish to see them.  For example, I set up a chart for Apple with the 25-period Aroon indicator in the top window, and the Chande Trend Meter in the bottom panel (see Chart 1).  Naturally, you Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

A Deep Dive Into the Industrials Sector

by Tushar Chande

The Industrials Sector via the Industrials Select Sector SPDRs XLI ETF has risen to the top of my Chande Trend Meter rankings, as the mighty Technology Sector (XLK) consolidates.  I will take a deeper look at the the constituents of the XLI and identify some of the strongest stocks in this sector, which accounts for some 10.4% of the S&P 500 index. I will also examine the performance of ETFs focused on industrial sector stocks. Tom Bowley also wrote briefly about Industrials sector's strength earlier this week. Chart 1: The Industrials Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Three Trending Stocks in Dow 30: MMM, JNJ, TRV

by Tushar Chande

As the dust settles from the sell-off in mega cap technology (AAPL, MSFT) and food stocks (KO, MCD), I explore three strongly trending stocks  in the Dow 30, and examine the Dow 30 internal technical condition.  At the moment, the three best trending stocks are 3M, Johnson and Johnson and Travelers.  The consolidation in the Dow which began in March has left technical weakness below the surface that must be repaired, or the index will turn lower again (see Chart 1). Despite this weakness, the breakout in the Dow 30 is holding well (see Chart 2).Chart 1: The proportion of Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Face-boom! Techs Wreck, but Fins Win; Growth Trips as Value Rips (Sectors Rotate on a Dime)

by Tushar Chande

Facebook stock suffered an explosive decompression Friday, along with other mega cap tech stocks. But Financials stocks had a winning day as techs wrecked. Despite these gyrations, market internals improved due to new highs in the broader indexes such as Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite.  Here is how the market rotation looked like over the past week (see Chart 1): Energy, Financials, Dollar and Building Materials were stronger; Bonds, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and the QQQ were all weaker. Chart 1: I plotted the change in Chande Trend Meter Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Overseas (not US) Infrastructure Stocks Are Trending Higher

by Tushar Chande

The buzz word for the week is "Infrastructure", which promises big spending on improving America's commonly used "public goods" such as roads, bridges, airports, schools, utilities and so on.  You would expect infrastructure stocks to be booming. You would be correct, but not in the obvious way: the real action in infrastructure stocks is overseas.  I look at the relatively few ETFs focusing on infrastructure stocks.   Chart 1: The iShares Global Infrastructure ETF (IGF) has rallied since the US election, even though about 65% of its assets are in non-US stocks. Read More 

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