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March 2018

ChartWatchers

Dow Industrials May Be Forming a Triangle of Their Own

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, March 15th at 12:34pm ET The two converging trendlines in the chart below show the Dow Industrials forming a potential "symmetrical triangle" (which has one trendline falling and the other rising). The falling trendline on top is drawn over its January/February peaks. The rising trendline is drawn under its February/March lows. This is also a continuation pattern which favors an eventual upside breakout. The key to the resolution of the pattern is which of the two trendlines is broken Read More 

ChartWatchers

Regional Banks Fill The New Highs Page

by Greg Schnell

Regional Banks had a great week. Lots of them are testing big breakout levels and making new highs. Some examples are:  Brookline Bancorp: In the small cap SCTR ranking. Independent Bank Corp (IBCP) is starting to move. It is also increasing the dividend consistently. Live Oak Bankshares (LOB) IPO'd three years ago. After consolidating all of 2017 it looks to be on the move again. There are lots of interesting new highs showing up. If you look through the Predefined Scan results on the right hand side of the Free Charts tab, you will Read More 

ChartWatchers

Here Are Two Seasonal Winners In The NASDAQ 100 For April And May

by Tom Bowley

The NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 became the first two key indices to break to fresh all-time highs and their 2018 relative strength can be underscored by this chart: The NASDAQ 100 is seeing money rotate its way in 2018 so it's prudent to focus on this index for specific trading ideas.  And this brings me to my February 3, 2018 ChartWatchers article, "The NASDAQ 100 And Its Best Seasonal Candidates in February".  In that article, I proposed two seasonal trading candidates - Adobe Systems (ADBE) and Booking Holdings (BKNG, formerly priceline.com, or PCLN).  Since the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Dow Industrials Coils Up as Breakout Nears

by Arthur Hill

The Dow Industrials is in the midst of a narrowing consolidation and chartists should watch the March range for the next directional clue.  The 2018 range extends from the January high (26,617) to the February low (23,360), which is 3257 points or around 13% of the current close. The range narrowed as the Dow formed lower highs and a higher low. As such, a large symmetrical triangle formed over the last few months.  I am using closing levels to mark the first support and resistance levels to watch for a break. The March 2nd close marks resistance at 25335 Read More 

ChartWatchers

No Need to Rush into a Trade

by John Hopkins

If there's one thing I've learned over my many years trading in the market, it's to avoid chasing a stock, especially if it's overbought. This might seem like an obvious strategy but many traders are drawn to those stocks that are ascending which I can understand. But if you end up buying near the top you might find yourself holding a position which has little prospect to rise further while your capital remains tied up. As an example, take a look at the chart below on Meritor which soared after it reported strong earnings at the end of January. Someone bought that stock just above $29.50 Read More 

ChartWatchers

Why Is Volume Important?

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE program, I did a workshop on volume. Highly recommend you check it out on the StockCharts YouTube Channel or it is available under the webinars tab until Monday's show begins. We talk about volume all the time, but why is understanding and following it important? Well, Dr. Alexander Elder in his book, The New Trading for a Living (available in the StockCharts Store) explains volume can be a very powerful tool to determine the financial and emotional involvement in a particular stock or index. Remember that a unit of volume Read More 

ChartWatchers

Stocks Remain On The Defensive

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, March 2nd at 12:26pm ET Wednesday's message showed the PowerShares QQQ (representing the Nasdaq 100 Index) pulling back from overhead resistance at its late January peak. That suggested profit-taking in the technology-dominated QQQ and the rest of the market. It also suggested a retest of its 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows that test taking place today. Since the QQQ led the market higher during its February rebound, what it does from here will tell us something about the direction of the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Bearish Bias - Weekly PMOs Log New SELL Signals on DP Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

I did a review of the monthly charts Wednesday and noticed a bearish bias. Today three new Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals arrived. The weekly PMOs crossed below their signal lines which triggered these signals. Weekly charts are presenting bearish characteristics. After looking at all three of these weekly charts, the main thing to notice are the rising bottom trend lines  price could continue lower and preserve the rising trend. Helpful Read More 

ChartWatchers

How Long Do Corrections Last Usually?

by Greg Schnell

After a massive run in 2017, the market has paused to absorb all the news of the tax package. I am reminded of other instances where the market sold off on good news, surprising retail investors. Stock markets usually lead the economy, but that does not mean that a little rock and roll won't happen along the way. When the $SPX was flying above a long term moving average by such an extreme (13%), who wouldn't expect some correction of sorts?  A crack in the momentum trend shown by the PPO can be a clue to more weakness. In this particular case Read More 

ChartWatchers

Is A Bear Market Underway? No And Here's My Argument

by Tom Bowley

THE Question Is this a correction within a bull market or is it the beginning of a bear market?  That is THE question that everyone is debating and hoping to answer correctly.  There's no crystal ball to know for sure the correct answer.  However, the market does provide us clues if we're willing to look for them. Let's begin with the knowledge that roughly two-thirds of GDP is comprised of consumer spending.  So it makes common sense to analyze consumer stocks for clues about the direction of our economy and, hence, the stock market.  The aggressive component Read More 

ChartWatchers

Applying Dow Theory to the Top Sectors for Broad Market Analysis

by Arthur Hill

The principle of confirmation is important to the application of Dow Theory. This principle asserts that the Averages, Dow Industrials and Dow Transports, should confirm each other when making new highs. In other words, both should make new highs to affirm the broad market trend. Failure by one results in a non-confirmation that reflects underlying weakness.  Chartists can apply this confirmation principle to sector analysis and assess the state of broader market. I am not going to use all ten sectors because the bottom five sectors account for less than a quarter of the S&P Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Dark Side of Earnings

by John Hopkins

Most analysts would agree that overall, 2017 Q4 earnings were superb. For quite a while we saw one company after another beat earnings expectations and they were rewarded for those results as well. But recently, as the market has come under fire, responses to many earnings reports have been brutal. For example, last week MNST, BOX and JCP got slammed after disappointing the street. And WTW reported as well with a nice after hours pop only to get hammered after the numbers sunk in. I bring this up since I know there are traders who are willing to hold positions into earnings reports Read More