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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

What Does a Flat Yield Curve Look Like Anyway?

by Arthur Hill

I hear talk that the yield curve is flattening and that this is a problem for the stock market. While it is true that the spread between the 10-yr T-Yield ($UST10Y) and 2-yr T-Yield ($UST2Y) is the lowest since 2007, the yield curve itself is by no means flat. The chart below shows the 10-yr yield in black and the 2-yr yield in red (top window). Notice that the 10-yr yield has been flat since 2012, and I mean really flat. Meanwhile, the 2-yr yield turned up in 2014 and moved to its highest level since 2008.  The bottom window shows Read More 

ChartWatchers

Currencies Are At An Important Inflection Point

by Greg Schnell

The Yen ($XJY), the Euro ($XEU) and the US Dollar ($USD) are all at important inflection points this week. Stay tuned as this could really decide the direction of Gold, Silver and other commodities this week. Starting with the Yen, this is a critical one to watch, Gold tracks it quite closely. With this close tracking, a break to the upside in the Yen could lead to a big move in Gold. Next is the Euro ($XEU), which makes up more than half of the $USD index. If the Euro is moving higher, the Dollar almost has to move lower. However, we Read More 

ChartWatchers

Sentiment Is Almost Bearish Enough

by Erin Swenlin

Sentiment charts haven't been all that enlightening with mostly neutral readings. However, we are reaching bearish levels that generally result in a rally. Here's my interpretation of the latest sentiment from the put/call ratios, AAII, NAAIM and Rydex Ratio.  What I pointed out in today's MarketWatchers LIVE show was that the CBOE put/call ratio is reaching near-term overbought territory. The Equity put/call ratio isn't so overbought, but it is still stair stepping higher. The OEX put/call ratio is many times used as a hedge so I actually look for those ratios to bottom in Read More 

ChartWatchers

Which Global Markets Have The Biggest Influence On The U.S. Market And Why?

by Tom Bowley

When considering this question, I believe the correlation indicator tells us most of what we need to know.  After all, we're pondering which global market movements tend to be reflected in similar movements in the U.S. market.  For purposes of the U.S. market, I'll focus on the benchmark S&P 500.  Correlation measures how two asset classes, indices, sectors, stocks, etc. move in relation to one another.  Positive correlation suggests that the two move similarly, while negative correlation would suggest the opposite.  The time period used is a variable as Read More 

ChartWatchers

Uptrends: What to Ignore and What to Watch?

by Arthur Hill

An uptrend means prices are advancing and higher highs are the order of the day. We do not know how long a trend will persist, but there is clear evidence that trends persist. Just look at the S&P 500 since early 2016 for a recent example. The 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA in April 2016 and this golden cross remains in play - some 19 months later and 25% higher. Dozens of stocks tell similar stories. Note that the 50-day EMA has been above the 200-day EMA for at least a year for 40 stocks in the S&P 100. Thus, 40% of stocks in the S&P 100 have been trending higher Read More 

ChartWatchers

Crude Oil is Trading Over $55 For First Time in Two Years

by John Murphy

My Wednesday message showed Brent Crude Oil trading over $60 for the first time in more than two years. Brent is trading over $62 today. It also showed West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) trying to break through overhead resistance at $55. Chart 1 shows WTIC trading slightly above that resistance barrier today ($55.69). If it's able to hold above that level, that would mark its first close over $55 in two years. That would be an impressive upside breakout and would lend more support to energy shares. My Wednesday message also showed the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) on the verge of Read More 

ChartWatchers

Energy Surges To New Two Year Highs

by Greg Schnell

The price of oil closed above all the weekly closing highs for the last two years to kick off November. West Texas climbed on Friday above all the intraday highs and all the daily closes to put an exclamation mark on the breakout. A weekly close is more important than a daily close so Friday's action was a big positive for energy related trades. These gains also showed up in some of the large cap energy names with COP, COG, SU, CNQ all pushing to new multi year highs this week. Heating Oil and Gasoline both made fresh two-year highs as well Read More 

ChartWatchers

New BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards for NDX and OEX - LTTM BUY Signal for USO

by Erin Swenlin

I've been expecting a new PMO BUY signal on both the SPX and the OEX. The OEX managed to wrangle the PMO above its signal line, but the SPX is struggling to garner its PMO BUY signal. Big news on Oil! We just got a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal which technically means there is a bull market bias in the long term for USO. Let's start with the NDX which produced (finally!) an intermediate-term PMO BUY signal. The intermediate-term PMO signals are taken from the PMO behavior on the weekly chart. As you can see below, the tech-heavy NDX saw a positive PMO crossover. I always love Read More 

ChartWatchers

Earnings Opportunities - No Chasing Allowed

by John Hopkins

  Earnings Season is winding down. So far it's been quite positive. How do I know? Just look at the overall market. We certainly saw strong earnings from the tech giants including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. In fact all of these are ripe for nice trades IF you are willing to be patient. As an example, take a look at the chart on Amazon below  which rose sharply on massive volume after they reported their earnings. It would have been great to have owned the stock into the earnings report but we have found this to be a risky proposition; there's no telling how the Read More 

ChartWatchers

Here Are The Best Seasonal Stocks During November In The S&P 500

by Tom Bowley

There are different ways to view best seasonal stocks depending on whether you're interested solely in average returns for a particular month or time period or if you're interested in the percentage times that a security rises for a particular month or time period.  Thus, is consistency more important or the absolute returns?  I'll concentrate on the latter.  The following list of stocks highlights the best performing stocks during the month of November on the S&P 500 (average November returns): Akamai (AKAM):  +16.2% (last 10 years:  -0.3%) Read More 

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