ChartWatchers Newsletter logo

StockCharts.com Icon
About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

Latest Posts

ChartWatchers

Rising Mortgage Rates Are Weighing On Homebuilders

by John Murphy

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Saturday, May 18th at 9:17am EST. The first page of today's Wall Street Journal carries the headline: "Era of Ultracheap Mortgages Ends as Rates Hit 7-Year High". The article goes on to point out that rising mortgage rates might make it harder for prospective home buyers to get mortgages or be able to afford them. And that could discourage homebuying, or at least start to slow it down. The fact that mortgage rates hit a seven-year high shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone since mortgage rates are Read More 

ChartWatchers

Rising Treasury Yields And Dollar Completely Change Investment Themes

by Tom Bowley

There's a raging bull market going on right now, but you might not realize it if you're stuck in the S&P 500.  Take a look at the chart below of the large cap benchmark S&P 500 and its small cap counterpart, the S&P Small Cap 600: The resumption of the bull market has taken shape in the form of small caps.  I fully expect that the rest of the market will follow suit eventually, but rising treasury yields and the surging dollar have money rotating feverishly into smaller companies and that relative strength is likely to continue.  In my last Read More 

ChartWatchers

Lumber Is Soaring - Timber?

by Greg Schnell

The continuous contract chart of $LUMBER has been on a tear recently. This week the price was almost $200 above the 40-week moving average. With a futures price of $650, that is 30% above the 40-week moving average!  While new highs are typically followed by new highs, this chart is clearly in blue-moon territory or rarified air.  StockCharts has $LUMBER data going back to 2006. A look over the past suggests caution. In the lowest panel I have shown the PPO with a (1,40) setting. This calculates the difference between the current weekly moving Read More 

ChartWatchers

Beat the Energy sector by avoiding XOM & CVX

by Julius de Kempenaer

In the previous RRG blog, I introduced the availability of pre-populated groups holding individual equities for each of the ten S&P sectors. This addition makes it much easier for users of the Relative Rotation Graph tool on Stockcharts.com to drill down to the individual equity level from asset class and/or sector level. In this article, I want to grab the bull by the horns and zoom in on the current equity rotation inside the Energy sector (XLE). Summary XLE leading the market and the only sector Read More 

ChartWatchers

Small-caps Lead, but Mid-caps and Large-caps Lack Leadership

by Arthur Hill

Stocks recording new 52-week highs are the leaders and a key component to broad market strength. Small-caps are doing their part with plenty of new highs, but large-caps and mid-caps are lagging in this category. The S&P Small-Cap 600 moved to a new 52-week high this week and is leading the major stock indexes. In contrast, the S&P 500 is 5.7% below its January high and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 is around 3% below its January high. In Dow Theory terms, one could argue that large-caps and mid-caps are not confirming strength in small-caps. Read More 

ChartWatchers

Small-Caps Leading the Way - Indicators for $SML Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

Small-cap stocks and indexes are quite healthy, far more than the large-cap indexes which are lagging behind. During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show and in my Wednesday "DP Alert" blog article, I discussed the SPX's short-term bearish indicators contrasted with the now bullish short-term indicators for $SML. Not many of you are aware, but the Swenlin Trading Oscillators are available for most of the major indexes including $SML which I'll cover today. For more information, go to "Your Account" and manage your ChartPacks to download the DecisionPoint Straight Shots ChartPack. There you can Read More 

ChartWatchers

Rising Dollar Should Change Your Investment Strategy

by Tom Bowley

Throughout 2017 the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) was falling and aiding profits on multinational companies found on the S&P 500.  But it was time for the dollar to rise, as evidenced by a surging U.S. 10 year treasury yield ($UST10Y) vs. Germany's 10 year treasury yield ($DET10Y).  Check out this chart: I anticipated the dollar strength back in my February 28, 2018 Trading Places article titled, "3 Takeaways From Tuesday's Renewed Selling.And Why I'd Avoid Gold", where I discussed potential ramifications and opportunities given the rare inverse correlation that had Read More 

ChartWatchers

Climactic Breadth Readings: Buying Exhaustion or Initiation? - Whipsaw BUY Signal for SPX

by Erin Swenlin

The SPX whipsawed into a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal, suggesting a short-term rally is up next. Climactic breadth indicators popped on Friday and the VIX penetrated the upper Bollinger Band. When I see these types of readings, I classify them as a buying exhaustion or buying initiation.  Below you can see in the thumbnail that the PMO triggered a SELL signal on Thursday, but Friday it went back on a BUY. I've been discussing in prior blogs and on the MarketWatchers LIVE show that if the market is to avoid a bear market, it needs to bounce off the rising bottoms Read More 

ChartWatchers

Toys Are Starting To Surge Again

by Greg Schnell

The toy business has been in a massive uptrend if you are in the right stocks. It is a fickle business group as they seem to treat the shares aggressively. Buy the good ones quickly, sell the weak ones even faster.  This week, Activision (ATVI) closed above 5-week highs on the strongest positive volume in a year. This stock seems to give one full stochastic signal a year, and it just gave us a signal here. The three year weekly chart is shown. Electronic Arts (EA) also had a strong week. With huge volume Thursday and above average volume on Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Bird's Eye View: Big Advances Deserve Big Corrections

by Arthur Hill

2018 has been a tough year for stocks with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) basically unchanged (+.08%) for the year. During this journey to unchanged, SPY was up around 7% at its late January high and down around 5% at its February low. The index has since gyrated within the range set from this high and low.  The chart below shows this year's price action with a large triangle taking shape as the range narrows. The overall trend is still up because the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, the 200-day SMA is rising and price is still above the 200-day SMA.  Read More 

Subscribe to ChartWatchers to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!