Dancing with the Trend

Greg Morris
About the author: has been a technical market analyst for over 40 years and is the author of several popular financial analysis books including Candlestick Charting Explained, Investing with the Trend and The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators. Before retiring, he served as the Chief Technical Analyst and Chairman of the Investment Committee for a technical-based money management company with over $5.5 billion under management. Greg has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg Television and has also spoken at numerous financial conferences around the world.

Latest Posts

Dancing with the Trend

"Believable" Misinformation Is a Danger to Long-Term Retirement Goals

by Greg Morris

Many investment "truths" seem to go unchallenged but are in fact, very clearly just myths.  Buy and hold investing is a good long-term strategy, economists are good at predicting the markets, diversification will protect you from losses, compounding is the eighth wonder of the world, missing the best days each year can be devastating, probability and risk are the same thing, and chasing performance will work; just to mention a few.  It is important to debunk these myths. Buy and hold is a proven strategy for the stock market. The 1976 Ibbotson Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Weight of the Evidence - 3

by Greg Morris

In the past two articles on Weight of the Evidence my goal was to show you how you can use Tushar Chande’s Chande Trend Meter (CTM) in a trend model.  I stated previously that my digital weight of the evidence also provides levels that define buying parameters, stop loss percentages, and asset commitment amounts (see this article).  In Weight of the Evidence -2 I showed that by exponentially smoothing CTM it greatly reduced its volatility and made it a bit more useable for a model.  From a ChartSchool article on CTM, Tushar provides his levels that offer degrees of Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Article Summaries: 5/2018 - 8/2018

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are about experiences I have had as a technical analyst for 45 years; the good, the bad, and the ugly. You can think of my articles as sections in a book.  You can click on the headers for a link to the article Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Weight of the Evidence - 2

by Greg Morris

In my previous article called Weight of the Evidence (WoEv) I compared my Weight of the Evidence with Tushar Chande’s Chande Trend Meter (CTM).  I also mentioned I was happy that Tushar had this indicator since I cannot divulge the exact details of my Weight of the Evidence.  A large difference between my WoEv and Tushar’s CTM is that I use market breadth AND price-based measures and Tushar only uses price-based measures.  At market tops (periods of distribution) I strongly believe breadth can offer an early warning to impending weakness in the markets.  This is because Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Weight of the Evidence

by Greg Morris

In my recent Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model series, I talked extensively about the Weight of the Evidence.  This is my measure to tell me what the market is doing based upon nine different technical measures made up of price, breadth, and relative strength (PBR, like the beer).  Tushar Chande introduced a substitute for your use with his Chande Trend Meter (CTM) in a recent article.  This was a wonderful happening since I cannot divulge the exact details of my Weight of the Evidence, as it is still used to manage millions of dollars.  This means you have a Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Noise is Deafening!

by Greg Morris

Just in the course of a normal week, we are bombarded with information from sources such as the FED, television analysts, brokerage firm analysts, economists’ projections, newspapers, junk mail, neighbors, war reporters, fake news,  etc.  Making investment decisions without a plan or methodology is truly a gamble.  And to think that there are academic types who advocate that the markets are efficient, which means everyone has all the available information at the same time, and therefore cannot possibly get an advantage over anyone else is preposterous!   Then when Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 13

by Greg Morris

I may seem to be wandering around when it comes to this series on model building, but I think that keeps the interest a little higher; maybe not.  Rules and guidelines are a critical element to a good trend following model; in fact, any type of model.  Once you have the weight of the evidence measures telling you what the market is currently doing, the rules and guidelines provide the necessary process on how to invest based upon those measures.  If there was a simple answer as to why they are necessary, it is to invoke an objective approach, one that does as much as Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model - 12

by Greg Morris

I’m going to return to discuss the final part of my Weight of the Evidence.  As a reminder this is a collection of price and breadth measures designed to tell me if the Nasdaq Composite is in an uptrend or not. You might want to review some of the past articles in this series as I’m going to try to not repeat unless necessary for clarity. The model uses a basket of technical measures to determine the overall risk levels in the market as defined by the Nasdaq Composite Index. The model has been constructed so that each technical measure carries a specified weight based upon extensive Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Fear and Greed

by Greg Morris

I cannot tell you the number of times an investor has asked, “Considering the difficulties of the past few months, do you still believe in your investment process?”  These questions always concerned me because I never once considered not believing in my process for managing money just because of short-term whipsaws and volatility.  I have written often, maybe too often, that the single most important trait to have for the long-term success of my process was discipline.  You must have discipline to stick with your strategy during the inevitable periods when the results are Read More 

Dancing with the Trend

Markets do Trend!

by Greg Morris

For the last couple of decades, I have classified myself as a trend follower.  Mind you, this is not market timing.  Market timing involves guessing at tops and bottoms.  A trend follower will NEVER get in at the bottom or out at the top.  It depends on how quickly his/her trend measures identify a trend that determines when to go long after a bottom and exit after a top.  I need to quickly clarify that I do not participate in the downside, only long positions, with cash being such a position in down markets.  Why double the risk of whipsaws? Read More 

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