DecisionPoint Blog Archives

November 2017

Dow Logs New PMO BUY Signal - UUP Triggers an IT Trend Model SELL Signal

Two important signal changes arrived today that you need to know about. First, the Dow Industrials triggered a new ST PMO BUY signal. Talk about a bifurcated market, the NDX gets a PMO SELL signal yesterday and today the Dow continues its parabolic rise and logs a BUY signal. The second signal is the new IT Trend Model SELL signal on the Dollar (UUP). After reviewing UUP in yesterday's DP Alert, I did warn everyone that this was coming. 

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DP Alert: PMO SELL Signal on NDX - SPX Indicators Very Bullish

Technology fell apart today as money appeared to be rotating out of technology and into financials which had a brilliant day. The PMO was yanked down below its signal line on the NDX. Yesterday, the PMO was rising and price looked strong. What a difference a day can make. Meanwhile, the SPX and OEX had very small declines today and the Dow actually finished up 0.44%.

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DP Scoreboard Shake Up

After today's rallies and big breakouts, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the OEX and SPX finally shed their PMO SELL signals. What is interesting is the Dow's 'laggard' status on triggering a PMO BUY signal. It is the last SELL signal standing. I'll give you a peek into all four charts with my DP analysis slant. Stay tuned tomorrow for a "DP Alert" article where I'll review all of the indicators, as well as the "big four"--Dollar, Oil, Gold and Bonds.

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Wall Street Sentiment Soars Bullish - IT Indicators Bottom - TLT at a Decision Point

I have a few DecisionPoint charts that are "must-see" right now. Anytime I look at my ChartLists and a chart smacks me in the face, I always try to share it. Today during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, two of those charts got me and the third, Carl slid my way to make sure I saw it. Glad I did! 

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DP Weekly Wrap: No Holiday Surprises

Thanks mostly to a pop on Tuesday the market once again moved to new, all-time highs. Typical of holiday trading volume was lower than average, except for Tuesday, which had a surge confirming the price advance. Positive market action on a holiday week was no surprise, considering the persistent strength of the current bull market.

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DP Bulletin #2: Here and Gone...NDX Switches Back to PMO BUY Signal

You know you're in trouble when you wake up and find a snarky tweet about the timeliness of a particular signal change. That was the case this morning when I got the tweet about the NDX PMO SELL signal that arrived after the market closed yesterday. Today, the PMO whipsawed and easily discarded the PMO SELL signal. I did mention that the margin was exceedingly thin and whipsaw could be a factor...and still could be, for that matter. 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Incongruous Sentiment

When I posted the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Exposure Index this week, I thought to myself, "What's wrong with this picture?". To clarify, rather than stay fully invested all the time, NAAIM members adjust their exposure based upon their assessment of market conditions, and exposure can be anywhere from +200% to -200%. Although, the Exposure Index has never been anywhere close to those extremes, it does, however, give a good reading of sentiment among this group of professionals.

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S&P 600 Bounces Off Support - IT Indicators Oversold

I had this article in the queue yesterday with the headline "S&P 600 Nearing Important Support". Well, it turned out to be a bounce off that support today. Small-caps have been hit hard while most large-cap indexes spent the last month consolidating and moving slightly lower. You could say $SML had a correction over the last month.

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DP Alert: SPY Rising Trend Channel Broken - DP Indicators Bearish in ST and IT - PMO SELL on UUP

Since November 9th, the DP Scoreboards have been quiet. It isn't surprising to see the weakness on these Scoreboards to be short-term momentum given the recent decline. The SPY/SPX have now dropped below rising trend channels, but support remains. With DP indicators looking bearish, we could be in for more downside in both the short and intermediate terms.

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HALO - Angel or Devil?

As part of the MarketWatchers LIVE show (airs M-F, 12p-1:30p - You'll find today's recording under the "Webinars" tab), Tom Bowley and I come up with set-ups on Monday. We call the segment "Monday Set-Ups". This segment has an eye toward very short-term investments as Tom and I compete to see who had the best returns on the following Monday. I use my PMO Scan exclusively to come up with my Monday Set-Ups (you'll find the article with the scan language here). I thought today's set up was very promising for the short term, but also in the intermediate term, so I thought I would share this "angel" that hopefully won't turn into a "devil".

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DP Weekly Wrap: Buy the Dip? What Dip?

I should probably watch less business news, but I only have it on to catch any big news developments, and the sound is usually off. Nevertheless, I can't avoid some stuff that I'd rather filter out. For example, there was talk on Thursday and Friday about whether investors should be "buying the dip." To clarify, the distance from Tuesday's intraday all-time high to Thursday's intraday low was -1.2%. The distance from Wednesday's all-time closing high to Thursday's close was -0.4%. In my experience, that ain't a dip, but the discussion shows how rose-colored the crowd's view has become.

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DP Bulletin: NDX Only PMO BUY Signal Left - Gold PMO BUY Signal

Today's decline was enough to push the OEX and Dow PMO BUY signals off the DP Scoreboards. The NDX is still looking good with the PMO actually rising right now. However, if the other indexes continue to decline, it is very likely the NDX will follow suit. Gold received a new PMO BUY signal while price easily holds support.

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DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signal for Bonds (TLT)

As noted, a new technical alert arrived in my email inbox this afternoon. I was surprised that I didn't receive word of any DP Scoreboard PMO signal changes, but seeing TLT grab an ITTM BUY signal wasn't surprising. I think TLT is at an interesting "decision point" right now. Here's a look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts.

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DecisionPoint Alert: SPX Back on PMO SELL - Oil Flourishes, Gold Support Holding Strong

Yes, the PMO BUY signal on the SPX has already disappeared. Unfortunately with the margin so thin between the PMO and its signal line (thousandths of a point), this likely will change again tomorrow if the SPX can close higher. What is interesting...the SPY never managed a PMO BUY Signal and it has now topped below its signal line.

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DP Bulletin: New PMO BUY Signal on SPX - Scoreboards All Green!

It's official! All four DecisionPoint Scoreboards are on BUY signals in all three timeframes on the PMO and Trend Models. Tom Bowley and I continue to discuss during the MarketWatchers LIVE show about the hurricane force bull market winds. If these Scoreboards don't convince you, I'm not sure what will. Bull market rules definitely apply right now. What does that mean? Simply put, don't worry so much about overbought conditions and expect bullish conclusions to chart patterns and support/resistance levels. This is NOT to say that we have an unending bull market or are not vulnerable to a price shock. It simply tells you the temperature of the market is extremely bullish, so why buck the trend?

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DP Weekly Wrap: Not Out of the Woods Yet

Of my comment, "Not out of the woods yet," you might ask, "What woods?" The market, after all, did manage to grind higher this week, so what's the problem? The problem that I see is a persistent weakness in our intermediate-term indicators, but we will get into that later. More immediately, we note that this week higher prices were accompanied by much higher than average S&P 500 volume. This could be a sign of distribution.

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Don't Trust the Headlines: "This Stock is Going to Soar!"

I know we all have seen the commercials for the newest or best investment of the decade. Now we are getting emails flooding our inboxes claiming to have an "investment of a lifetime"! I'm not saying that these are traps or always bad, but I can tell you, before you believe the amazing claims, a look at the chart is a MUST. I was recently sent a question via email with an attachment of one of these such headlines on BioHiTech Global (BHTG). I generally can't review or answer all of my emailed chart suggestions, but the headline was just "too good". I had to see this chart. 

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Short-Term Indicators Bottom Quickly - IT Indicators Still Moving Lower

I promised to inform you when the Swenlin Trading Oscillators bottom in a concerted move to the upside and it happened already today. I pointed out in yesterday's blog article that the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) were now hitting oversold territory. This is exactly what we want to see--oversold indicators turning up. However, we want to also see intermediate-term indicators turning up or at least decelerating their descent and that hasn't happened, nor does it look like it will anytime soon. So what does this mean?

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