DecisionPoint

Short-Term Trend Model Whipsaws Plague DecisionPoint Scoreboards

Yet again, more whipsaw on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is highly sensitive given that it is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers. However, the main problem we have is consolidation. Price hit all-time highs, but has continued to meander sideways. This will draw the EMAs together and in the case of the 5/20-EMAs, they end up braiding and creating plenty of STTM whipsaw signals. Not so helpful during consolidation phases, but quite helpful to very short-term traders when the market is trending.

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DP Alert: Rounded Top Concerning - Gold Breaks Through Neckline

No new signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, but we did see three new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signals generate on three different sectors. Utilities, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples. It's odd to see both Consumer Staples and Discretionary hitting bearish signals, but I think that is a symptom of the rotation of money throughout the various sectors.

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DP Bulletin: New IT PMO SELL Signal on NDX - ST Trend Model Neutrals for SPX and OEX

We have three new signals to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards and none of them are good. Momentum was already waning with PMO SELL signals coming in late June, but now we are seeing the destruction of upward price trends. Admittedly, the Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers, so we will see a lot of whipsaw, especially if the market consolidates sideways. Interestingly, the NDX, which has been surging of late, posted a new Intermediate-Term PMO SELL signal. These signals are retrieved from the weekly chart and therefore, don't go "final" until trading on the last day of the week is finished.

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Short-Term Price Trend Turning Up? Equal-Weight Consumer Staples ETF (RHS) ITTM Neutral Signal

It happened so fast that I missed it on Monday. Both the SPX and OEX generated ST Trend Model Neutral signals Friday and Monday, but today those signals have already bitten the dust as new ST Trend Model BUY signals came back to roost on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Those aren't the only two signals that appeared today, the equal-weight Consumer Staples ETF (RHS) triggered a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal.

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DecisionPoint Weekly/Monthly Wrap -- Topping In Progress?

June has been a tedious month for the market with SPY being confined mostly within a three point range. I can't help noticing the rounded shape of June's price activity, which makes me think we may be seeing a rounded top leading to a period of falling prices. Ha! How refreshing that would be, but the bull market has been very stingy in that regard. Nevertheless, the PMO SELL signal for SPY says there is a chance of some bearish action.

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DP Alert: Signals Galore! New PMO SELL Signals on Dow, Dollar and Bonds - IT Trend Model Neutral on Gold

Today brought a plethora of new DecisionPoint timing signals...all bearish. As far as the DP Scoreboards are concerned, the Dow initiated a PMO SELL signal on the daily chart today. This puts all four indexes on PMO SELL signals. I've included the daily chart of the Dow below the Scoreboards. Heads up... the IT PMO BUY signal on the SPX has disappeared, but the signal isn't final until after trading on Friday. If we get an incredible bounce tomorrow, that signal may be prevented.

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One PMO Scan to Rule Them All!

I love to use the Advanced Scanning Workbench and find it absolutely invaluable in my investment mining process. Every other Monday, I review the PMO scan that I've chosen for the day and use the results to create my "Monday Set-Ups" symbol list. "Monday Set-Ups" is a segment where both Tom and I discuss what we think might be hot properties in the coming week or more. Now that I'm running the scans more often, I've been tweaking them as I go along. I've now got what I think is the most robust scan in my toolbox.

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DP Alert: NDX Posts New ST Trend Model Neutral Signal - TLT Fake Out Breakout

As annotated on the DecisionPoint Scoreboard Summary, the Nasdaq 100 just triggered a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) Neutral signal as the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA on the daily chart. Today's breakdown took out support at the May high and closed just below the 50-EMA. The PMO on the NDX is reaching previously oversold territory which is encouraging, but it is pointed straight down right now. I suspect we will see previous June lows tested at a minimum.

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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Troubling Negative Divergences

SPY began the week with a breakout on very high volume that subsequently looks like a minor blowoff, as price retreated back into the June trading range. The expansion of New Highs on Monday failed to match the climactic level of New Highs on June 2, and a PMO top implies that we could be in for more churning, and maybe a bit of a decline.

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