DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Alert: New STTM BUY Signals for Dow and NDX - IT Trend Model SELL Signal on USO

by Erin Swenlin

As you can see on the DecisionPoint Scoreboard summary, we had two new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signals on the Dow and NDX. I've annotated the charts below the Scoreboards. Of particular note on those charts are the breakouts above the declining tops trendlines. The PMO on the NDX has now bottomed, but the Dow's PMO is still in a slow decline. The other big new signal was an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) SELL signal on USO. Oil has been volatile but has been in a steady downtrend for quite some time. I'll go over that signal change in the section on Oil below Read More 

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Is that PMO Overbought or Oversold?

by Erin Swenlin

First, thank you to all of the live MarketWatchers LIVE webinar viewers! You've been making writing my blog articles easy by posing excellent questions in the chat room during the live show. Today's question was how I determine if a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) is overbought or oversold. There can be some confusion because I do point out "near-term" overbought and oversold conditions which can be confused with the overall PMO range in the longer term which will have different thresholds. Properly confused? Great! Let me explain. This blog is really an expansion of Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Smaller-Cap Stocks Lagging

by Carl Swenlin

While we usually focus on the large-cap market indexes, they often disguise what is happening with smaller-cap stocks. Recently I decided to delve into this question with a chart showing the relative strength of smaller-cap indexes. The first relative strength panel examines all S&P 500 stocks on an equal-weighted basis. (The S&P 500 is a cap-weighted index, and its fifty largest stocks comprise about 70% of the index weighting.) To get the relative strength line, we divided the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) by the benchmark index, SPY. Granted, RSP isn't a Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Dollar, Gold and Bonds All at a Decision Point

by Erin Swenlin

No changes to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards and based on the charts in the DecisionPoint ChartList (link at top of the DecisionPoint blog page), I only see the Intermediate-Term Trend Model signals nearing Neutral signals on the daily chart. 20-EMAs are steadily dropping toward negative crossovers the 50-EMAs. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

DecisionPoint

Determining the Health of the Market in the Intermediate and Long Terms

by Erin Swenlin

Today was my first day back on the MarketWatchers LIVE show (you'll find the recording under the "Webinars" tab) and it was so much fun to reconnect with all the fans in the chat room and on Twitter. During our "Mailbag" segment, I was asked what I used to determine the overall health of the market in the intermediate and long terms. The answer was actually quite simple: I use the weekly and monthly PMOs. The signals tend to be very timely and very accurate. The weekly PMOs can see some whipsaw, but the divergences are generally very clear Read More 

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DP Alert: SPY Bounces Off Rising Bottoms Support - IT Indicators Reaching Near-Term Oversold Territory

by Erin Swenlin

After a wonderful wedding and honeymoon, I have finally returned! It took some time to review and update my annotations and I see that we've had quite a few signal changes while I was gone. The market has been meandering lower this month since I left and consequently the DP indicators have seen some bearish changes. Let's get started with a fresh review. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Failed Retest

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: "I would like for the correction to continue for a while, but honestly, we may have just hit bottom." Well, the market did make a bottom, but it was just for a short bounce prior to this week's failed retest of last week's low. It was not the enduring intermediate-term bottom I had imagined, and it may be a while before we see that. As I watched decelerating price movement on Tuesday and Wednesday, it became apparent that a retest was more likely than an upside breakout. Similar to last week, this Friday was a day of rest to digest Thursday's collapse and to process Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Dow Industrials ($INDU) Generates ST Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) 5EMA crossed down through the 20EMA, changing a Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal to NEUTRAL. Recently we have been plagued by deluge of whipsaw signals on the other three major indexes we track here, but the Dow has been quite unambiguous, holding an STTM BUY signal for almost three months. There are no guarantees, but this 5/20EMA crossover is steep and clean, just the kind of configuration I like to see. Happy Charting! - Carl Technical Analysis Read More 

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DP Bulletin: S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100 ST Trend Models Switch Back to NEUTRAL

by Carl Swenlin

Today both the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Indexes switched from Short-Term Trend Model BUY signals to NEUTRAL, when their 5EMAs crossed back down through their 20EMAs. With only two days since the last signal changes, this is more annoying whipsaw, but I think these signals will hold for a while. I'll be making a full assessment in tomorrow's DP Weekly Wrap. Today's decline was a retest of last week's low, a retest that obviously failed. Of the four major averages we track here, the Nasdaq 100 was the only one that did not break through last Read More 

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Erin's Hits: Another PMO Scan for MarketWatchers

by Erin Swenlin

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** During the MarketWatchers LIVE program (airs 12:00p - 1:30p EST M/W/F), Tom Bowley and I have started a segment called "Anatomy of a Trade" where we go through our process for identifying investment prospects. I use Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) scans to start every mining exercise. One of the scans I have been using regularly identifies stocks that have PMOs rising for three days and have a bullish IT and LT Trend Model set-up (meaning the 20-EMA > 50-EMA Read More 

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