DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

Swenlin Trading Oscillators Reaching Oversold Levels

by Erin Swenlin

The Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) is an overbought/oversold indicator that can assist in identifying short-term tops and bottoms. There are two versions, one using advances and declines (STO-B), and one using advancing and declining volume (STO-V). DecisionPoint analysis considers these to be short-term indicators. Right now they are quickly reaching oversold levels not seen since August when we saw the rally begin a steady rise. Typically in a strong bull market we see these indicators oscillate mostly above the zero line, but in August, they dipped down to oversold extremes. We Read More 

DecisionPoint

Beware of the Parabolic Price Move - Intel (INTC) Example

by Erin Swenlin

As I was preparing for today's MarketWatchers LIVE broadcast this morning, Tom asked me to take a look at a handful of large cap breakout charts. The one that jumped out at me was that of Intel Corp (INTC). The chart pattern is worrisome. The recent move from its lows around $35 in August to it's close today at $44.37 is characteristic of a parabolic price pattern. The parabolic or exponential move higher on a chart is fantastic if you were lucky enough to hop on board for the takeoff. However, it's the landing that is the problem with these moves. I've annotated INTC to show you the Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Another Blink Moment

by Carl Swenlin

Last week there was a one-day decline that didn't actually last a whole day. On Wednesday this week there was a rather more robust decline, but it didn't last a full day either, and the market took back a good chunk of its losses by the closing bell. As of Friday, the market was once again hitting new, all-time highs. Well, I should clarify that most broad market indexes were doing that, but two Dow components (Chevron and Merck) had a really bad day and kept the Dow nearly flat. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment Read More 

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DP Bulletin: NDX Whipsaws Back to PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Just a quick headline! NDX whipsawed back into a PMO BUY signal after two days on a SELL. After today's brilliant move by the technology sector, the PMO was yanked back up above its signal line. This was a beautiful breakout today with a gap up to form new support at prior resistance. Hard to argue with what looks like an initiation impulse such as this on price. This doesn't look like a fake out rally, but I would expect to see it pause or pullback slightly. Helpful DecisionPoint Links: DecisionPoint Read More 

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Momentum Failing on SPX - New PMO SELL Signal - Dow Holds PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

I updated the DecisionPoint Scoreboards yet again today. Yesterday saw the new PMO SELL signals on the NDX and OEX and today the SPX has followed suit by generating its own PMO SELL signal. You'll note that "one of these things is not like the others" on the Scoreboards as far as the short-term PMO. The Dow Industrials ($INDU) has been the titan of indexes with very little holding it back. Below is a tale of two very different charts. The SPX has dipped this week and yesterday, it nearly closed below rising bottoms line support and the 20-EMA. It wasn't a Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: PMO SELL Signals on SPY, OEX and NDX - Climactic Indicators Suggest "Rally Pop"

by Erin Swenlin

Two important changes occurred on our DP Scoreboards today. The OEX and NDX both logged new PMO SELL signals as their PMOs crossed below their signal lines. I had expected the SPX to follow suit, but by an incredibly thin margin, its PMO BUY signal survived. The SPY wasn't so fortunate as a new PMO SELL signal appeared on its daily chart. So, I know you're asking, "You mentioned a 'rally', how can you expect a rally with all those new SELL signals?" A rally 'pop' is just that. A quick or sharp move upward in one or two days. This can develop into more, but I use climactic indicators Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dollar Greening Up - IT Trend Model BUY Signal and Inverse H&S

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, Gold minted a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal, so it isn't surprising to see the opposite occur for the Dollar. Looking at the chart of UUP, there are plenty of bullish characteristics. This new IT Trend Model BUY signal is a great confirmation of the very bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern that has formed. Lots going on in this chart, let's break it down. First and foremost, the IT Trend Model BUY signal was generated when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. There is technically still a bear market bias on UUP given the 50-EMA is so far below the 200-EMA. The Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: If You Blinked, You Missed It!

by Carl Swenlin

Back in September the market had a small pullback that took all of three days (blue circle on chart below). This week I was expecting at least something similar, but all that happened was an intraday dip on Thursday that disappeared by the time the market closed! Then on Friday the market gapped up to new, all-time highs. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. STOCKS IT Trend Model: Read More 

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Healthcare Sector Feeling Better

by Erin Swenlin

Tom Bowley and I have been talking on MarketWatchers LIVE about sector rotation and how the healthcare sector is getting more "healthy". Today I got confirmation that this sector is back in favor. A PMO BUY signal was generated on both the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and on the equal-weight Healthcare ETF (RYH).   After enjoying Julius de Kempenaer's presentation on yesterday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, I was inspired to do a short-term Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) of the sector SPDRs. Tune in on Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show and I'll show you how easy it Read More 

DecisionPoint

New PMO SELL Signal on Small-Cap ETFs, IJR and IWM

by Erin Swenlin

The short-term rally in large-cap indexes like the SPX, OEX and INDU was not contagious for the S&P 600 or Russell 2000. Below I've annotated their associated ETFs, IJR and IWM to show you the new PMO SELL signals. Although these SELL signals arrived today, a look at the charts suggests that these signals will whipsaw back to BUY signals. You'll note on both IJR and IWM that the PMOs are overbought. Generally PMO SELL signals in overbought territory tend to be more successful in calling a decline than signals that arrive in oversold territory. That being said, I don't believe Read More 

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