DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Alert: New PMO BUY Signal on Dollar - TLT Narrowly Misses Long-Term SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

No one can deny that this correction has been difficult and it has certainly left investors uneasy. However, the VIX is calming down somewhat and the Swenlin Trading Oscillators have bottomed. I don't think the market is completely out of the woods from an intermediate-term indicator perspective. UUP garnered a new BUY signal just as TLT nearly triggered a new LT Trend Model SELL signal. Look for that signal tomorrow. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Read More 

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DP Bulletin: ST Trend Model Neutrals on Scoreboard Indexes - PMO SELL for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

Today all four Scoreboard indexes (NDX, INDU, SPX & OEX) logged new Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signals. These signals arrived when the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while the 20-EMA was above the 50-EMA. In addition, we saw a new PMO SELL signal on Gold. I've included the charts below for your review. We honestly shouldn't be overly surprised by the depth of this correction given the parabolic rallies that all of these indexes have been in for some time. I've written quite a few articles on parabolic formations and when they fail, they FAIL, quickly. The good news is that we Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Inadequate Correction

by Carl Swenlin

Because the DP Weekly Wrap is a recap of the week just ended, I normally lead with a daily chart; however, since there is so much agony being expressed about this week's correction, I am leading with a monthly chart to try to put things in proper perspective. Note that in 2015 price departed from the secular bull market rising trend line by +27%. To correct that excess the market moved sideways into the 2016 low, and then the cyclical bull market began. By the end of last month price had departed from the secular bull market trend line by +40%, which is certainly a good definition of Read More 

DecisionPoint

What's the Difference Between the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) and MACD/PPO?

by Erin Swenlin

I am often asked first, "What's the difference between the PMO and the MACD (or PPO)?" which is usually followed by, "Why do you prefer the PMO?". I'll answer the second question right now. As a mother loves her child, so do I love the PMO--I was involved in its development. However, that's only part of it. The main reason is that having studied all three indicators, I believe the PMO is the most robust. The best place to start is by looking at each indicator and how it works. By understanding the basics of the equations and meaning of each, you can make an informed decision about Read More 

DecisionPoint

$VIX Flying High, This Has Bullish Implications

by Erin Swenlin

One chart that I have been watching very closely is the DecisionPoint Climactic Indicator chart. I use this chart to give me an idea of very short-term sentiment and how to use it to determine possible tops and bottoms. Today I'm seeing some extremes that could be telling us to expect a turnaround by week's end. Granted it's been only one day of real decline, but many viewers of MarketWatchers LIVE were hinting at some major discomfort with today's price action which to me proves the point that sentiment moved very bearish today. Sentiment is contrarian, so this is bullish for the very Read More 

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Mid-Cap and Small-Cap ETFs Deteriorating (IJH & IJR)

by Erin Swenlin

It is very tough to find weakness in the major indexes as they continue to fly higher. However, I was reviewing my DecisionPoint LIVE ChartList and noted that we are seeing a few warning signs on the small and mid-cap ETFs, IJR and IJH.  Currently, both IJH and IJR have PMOs that have topped. All of the major large cap indexes that we follow on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards (NDX, OEX, Dow, SPX) have PMOs that are rising. Relatively speaking, IJH has more problems than IJR. The mid-caps topped last week and have yet to set a new intraday high. Price is now sitting along Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Market Pumps; Dollar Dumps

by Carl Swenlin

This week the market underwent a horrifying intraday reversal. Just kidding. There was a surprising reversal on Wednesday, but by the close SPY was virtually unchanged. We can see on the chart that at the intraday low the steep January rising trend line was barely tested. And in the context of January's advance it is as if nothing dramatic happened at all. Which, I guess, it didn't. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Read More 

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Volatility Indexes for NDX ($VXN) and Gold ($GVZ) Suggest Rally Pop Ahead

by Erin Swenlin

Many of you may not be aware, but DecisionPoint has charts for most of the volatility indexes in the DecisionPoint Market Indicator ChartPack. We're in the process of updating the ChartPack, but there's no reason you can't download it now and enjoy the plethora of indicators available to you for most major indexes. I hadn't looked at this ChartList with the volatility indexes in a very long time. I primarily use the volatility index as a very short-term sentiment indicator. Based on the NDX and Gold volatility indexes, I'm expecting a "rally pop". I have no idea if this is my own term or Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Bull Flag Executes on USO! New Upside Target

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain green as momentum is positive and price trends continue higher in this seemingly unending bull market rally. I'm seeing a few cracks in the pavement right now in the short-term indicators with a negative divergence between breadth and volume. USO began executing a bull flag yesterday and today it took off. I'll give you my thoughts on a potential upside target in the section on Oil below. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action Read More 

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Near-Term Divergence Ends Between Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs), Intermediate Term Remains

by Erin Swenlin

On Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE program during the "DecisionPoint Report", I highlighted a divergence between the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs). I admitted that I hadn't seen a divergence lasting over a day or two. These are short-term indicators that generally travel in concert. The difference between them is that one is based on breadth (advances/declines) and the other on volume (advancing/declining volume). This divergence began last week and ended today. Seeing the divergence between the STO-B and STO-V with the volume indicator moving lower suggests that volume wasn't Read More 

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