DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Bulletin: Dow First to Lose Its PMO BUY Signal - Will Others Follow?

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards nearly made it to "all green" as the NDX was the first to manage a PMO crossover on the weekly chart and the others seemed sure to follow until this recent pullback. To make matters worse, the Dow which had just managed a PMO BUY signal on its daily chart two weeks ago, lost it.  The new PMO BUY signal was triggered when the daily PMO crossed below its signal line. There's plenty to dislike about this chart. While NDX and Small-Caps enjoy new all-time highs, the Dow has floundered. Trading was below the 50-EMA the entire day and the OBV is beginning Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Market Still Strong

by Carl Swenlin

The bearish rising wedge formation we had been watching resolved upward last week, though not by a decisive margin. This week price reached, then retreated from horizontal resistance, forming a top which created a new rising wedge formation. In spite of the modest pullback early Friday, price was virtually unchanged by the close. Again, let me remind you that the very high SPX volume on Friday was associated with options expiration occurring near the end of the quarter. If there is any message there, it is buried under that avalanche. The Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Bearish Indicators - Gold Decouples from Dollar

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain bullish, except for intermediate-term PMO SELL signals. Those should be replaced by BUY signals soon as all four indexes have rising PMOs. In fact, the NDX already has the PMO positive crossover on its weekly chart, it just has to remain by the close on Friday when the chart goes final. The market is stalling at resistance and our short-term indicators are confirming that we may have to wait a few more trading days for the breakout. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week Read More 

DecisionPoint

Real Estate Sector SPDR (XLRE) Shows LT New Bullish Bias

by Erin Swenlin

I have alerts set on my ChartList of sector SPDRs that alert me to Trend Model and PMO signal changes (Check our Support area for directions on how to set these). Today the alarm triggered when the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) had a Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. An LT Trend Model BUY signal is a 50-EMA positive crossover the 200-EMA. These signals don't happen often, so I try to keep my readers updated as soon as they arrive. This sector has enjoyed a great rally and rising trend. Consequently, the LT Trend Model BUY signal was triggered. As part of the DecisionPoint Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Market Approaching Overhead Resistance

by Carl Swenlin

Rising wedge formations normally resolve downward, but sometimes they don't. While I was expecting the normal bearish resolution of the current rising wedge, the market wasn't having it, and it pressed higher for a breakout on Wednesday. There has been no follow through yet, but price has managed to hold above the top of the wedge. There are significant lines of resistance just ahead, and OBV is not confirming the new price highs. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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DP Alert: Indicators Bullish, But Beware Very Short-Term Buying Exhaustion

by Erin Swenlin

So far this week, we had only two signal changes. The Dow moved from ST Trend Model Neutral and ST PMO SELL back to BUY signals after only a few days. The only area of concern for these Scoreboards is the IT PMO SELL signals which are found on the weekly chart. The good news is that on all four, the weekly PMOs are rising. And, in the case of the NDX, there is a pending IT PMO BUY signal. If that weekly PMO crossover on the NDX remains after the close on Friday, we will be clearing at least one of the IT PMO SELL signals. The Read More 

DecisionPoint

Dow Whipsaws Back to Short-Term BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

After yesterday's strong rally, the Dow managed to drop its bearish signals and collect two BUY signals in the short term. Today, the Dow was down slightly, but it didn't affect these signals which remained after the close. The indicators for the Dow are looking healthy now so I suspect these BUY signals will remain intact. The Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal was triggered when the 5-EMA crossed above the 20-EMA. Yesterday's strong rally brought price well above both of those EMAs, so much so that unless price drops below the 20-EMA, that BUY signal will remain. The PMO has a very Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: A Pullback Is Still Likely

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: ". . . the market seems to be set up for a pullback or correction.  . . .  Recent declines have been very short-lived, so I can't make a case for anything too serious." What we got on the first trading day of this week was a sharp -1.5% intraday pullback, and that was it. We had been watching a flag formation (the ghost of which I left on the chart), but Tuesday's decline and subsequent advance created a higher low in the advance from the May low. The result is a bearish rising wedge, which is now a dominant formation on the chart, and the likely resolution of Read More 

DecisionPoint

Monthly Charts Go Final - Long-Term Outlook

by Erin Swenlin

With today's close, all of the monthly charts have 'gone final'. This means that any signals that appear on monthly charts are the final signals for the month. While we don't have any new monthly/long-term signals, it is always instructional to look at these going into the next month. Below are the current DP Scoreboards. As noted, the monthly (long-term) PMOs remain on BUY signals; however, not all headings are positive. The Long-Term Trend Model signals are derived from the daily chart using the 50/200-EMA crossovers so there is no need to wait for those signals to "go final" Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin #1: Dow Bearish with PMO SELL Signal and STTM Neutral Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Clearly I spoke too soon about having no DP Scoreboard signal changes this week. Today the Dow triggered both a PMO SELL signal and a Short-Term Trend Model Neutral signal.  I'd prepare for some whipsaw. I've annotated a very small double-top that executed with Tuesday's decline. It also fulfilled the pattern, dropping the height of the pattern. I suspect this support will hold and whipsaw both signals back to "Buys". If I'm wrong, I still believe the 200-EMA will hold. Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal Read More 

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