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More Bad News Ahead for CBS?

by Arthur Hill

The chart for CBS Corp (CBS) is already bad news and the news could get even worse.  First and foremost, the long-term trend is clearly down as the stock hit a 52-week low in early November and remains below the falling 200-day SMA. The stock also broke below the May-June lows during the move to new lows.  The shaded area around 60 marks a resistance zone that could give way to a reversal. First, the broken support zone turns into a resistance zone. Second, notice that the November-January rebound retraced 50-61.8% of the prior decline. Third, the falling 200-day SMA is in Read More 

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NCLH Cruises towards New Highs

by Arthur Hill

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) broke out of a long consolidation and looks poised to hit new highs soon. The long-term trend is up as the stock surged to new highs with a 50+ percent advance from November 2016 to August 2017. Also note that the PPO(50,200,0) is positive, which means the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA.  The stock moved into a trading range after the August high and formed a long triangle. This pattern represents a consolidation, or rest, within the bigger uptrend. After testing support in the 52-53 area from October to December, the stock broke out with an advance Read More 

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Disney (DIS) Buy Tickets Or Leave The Park?

by Greg Schnell

As Disney (DIS) approaches meaningful resistance, it is a good time to evaluate if the run in Disney looks in trouble here. In other words, should we be buying the toy story or moving to the monorail heading for the parking lot? As price started to accelerate in November, the SCTR is giving us a clue that something is changing in Disney stock. After being mired in the basement with an SCTR of 10, the SCTR rallied up to 65. Now it has pulled back again. This suggests that the stock is weak, but one of my favorite multi point setup signals on the SCTR is: a Read More 

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Shopify (SHOP) Extends Above Consolidation

by Greg Schnell

Shopify (SHOP) made new 52 week highs today in the mid-cap area of the market. This is a company that owns software to build websites for selling merchandise through. In early 2017 it made a tremendous move higher and levelled off for 6 months. Now it looks like it is moving higher again. The SHOP chart looks strong and steady as long as it can hold above $117 which was its previous high.  I published a Commodities Countdown video recording covering off some of the major moves in the currencies and commodities. You can follow this link to Read More 

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The Mother of All Reversals is Building in the Bond Market

by Arthur Hill

The 10-year Treasury Yield peaked near 16% in 1982 and fell as a secular bear market took hold for over 30 years. After stabilizing the last few years, the 10-year Yield traced out a large bullish reversal pattern and confirmation would end the secular bear market.  Note that the 10-yr T-Yield ($UST10Y) is a mirror image of the spot price for the 10-year Treasury Note. Thus, a bullish reversal pattern in the 10-year Yield translates into a bearish reversal pattern for the 10-year Treasury Note (i.e. Treasury Bonds). The chart shows a massive Double Bottom taking shape as the 10-year Read More 

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The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sets Up For An Important Test

by Greg Schnell

The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is at a critical level. This sets up for an important test to break out or fail in the next few weeks. Today, the GDX ETF surged after opening lower. Looking at the chart demonstrates why the next move is so important.  The SCTR has moved up from below 10 back in December, and has since idled between 30 and 50. The price action continues to hover near the line at $24.68. I selected that level as that was the last level to exceed on a breakout. In September we had a failed breakout.  While the volume has levelled Read More 

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H&R Block Tests its Breakout Zone

by Arthur Hill

The chart for H&R Block (HRB) shows two corrective patterns, one confirmed and one working. First, HRB retraced around 61.8% of the February-August advance and formed A big wedge. The wedge pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections after a sharp advance. HRB broke out with a surge above 27 in early December and this indicates that the bigger trend is up.  A smaller wedge formed over the last few weeks as the stock again retraced around 61.8% of the prior advance. Also notice that broken resistance turns into support in the 26 area. The Read More 

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Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Jumps Up To The Winning Table

by Greg Schnell

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) made a beautiful breakout on high volume Thursday. It has continually tested this $13.50 level since July 2017. Today, the chips were all placed on Caesar's side of the table. The volume surged to 25 million shares.  The SCTR looks to be surging back into the top 25% area. The Relative strength compared to the $SPX made one month highs. The chart will probably add momentum if it can start to break out to new 12 month highs in relative strength. Arthur Hill mentioned MGM the other day. Wynn has been performing as well. It helps when the whole industry group Read More 

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PayChex Looks to Hit Payday with Momentum Breakout

by Arthur Hill

PayChex (PAYX), which has nothing to do with Chex cereal, ended its correction with a three-day surge and wedge breakout. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up as the stock broke out in early October and hit a 52-week high in December. The stock was quite extended after 30% advance and then took a breather with the wedge pullback.  A small wedge after a sharp advance is a correction and this makes it a bullish continuation pattern. Notice how the stock bounced off the rising 50-day SMA last week and continued with the wedge breakout this week Read More 

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Collegium Pharma (COLL) Pushes New 2 Year Highs

by Greg Schnell

Collegium Pharma (COLL) is pressing two year highs after IPO'ing three years ago. The stock has built a nice base and looks like it is ready to turn higher.  While this stock has come a long way since November, the current level suggests a major change in trend for the stock. A break above $21 would indicate a stronger stock breaking above resistance. If the stock can't hold above above $19, it would mark more consolidation. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA Read More 

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Expedia (EXPE): Perfect Opportunity Or Bad Weather Ahead?

by Greg Schnell

Expedia is at a huge point of reckoning here. Will this be a perfect opportunity or bad weather ahead? First of all, this $130 level was huge resistance before. When Expedia broke through, it soared to the upside. Recently, the stock had a terrible week losing 20%. But we saw this back in 2013. The stock soared from a beaten down status for the next four years. Digging deeper, we are also approaching gap resistance at $130 from the bottom. This $130 level is a good level to shoot against. If EXPE gets above, you can hold it long. If it can't stay above $130, is would be better Read More 

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Oracle (ORCL) Needs To Double Dribble

by Greg Schnell

Oracle stock (ORCL) has been languishing lately, but the stock showed up this week on one of my weekly scans. When I started to look more deeply, I noticed that signals on the Full Stochastics panel usually need to double bounce or double dribble. It starts to bounce up then rolls over and takes roughly three months to make the second tradable low. The crossing of the 20 line to the upside is something I like to scan for. Notice every year the best low was about three months after the first signal.  The PPO looks like it is resetting as well. The Read More 

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Ready to Roll the Dice with MGM?

by Arthur Hill

MGM Resorts (MGM) is gearing up for a resistance challenge and the speculator in me expects a breakout. First and foremost, MGM is in a long-term uptrend with the September 7th spike marking a 52-week high. The 50-day EMA is also above the 200-day EMA and price is well above the rising 200-day EMA.  The stock surged some 15% from mid October to late November with a move to the resistance zone. A triangle consolidation then unfolded and a consolidation after an advance is typically a bullish continuation pattern. A break above the early January highs would be bullish and signal a Read More 

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Roll Out The Barrels And TAP It

by Greg Schnell

As the market absorbs the early days of 2018, there is a huge movement underlying the market. The bonds are breaking down, the $USD has completed a base and is starting to rise, and commodities like Gold and Silver are starting to soften. The stock TAP looks like it is changing too. The chart of Molson Coors (TAP) has also been rising up after being in a year long downtrend. It is approaching resistance now so it is starting to get very interested as a base breakout.  While the chart has not decisively broken out, it has all the makings of a new breakout. The move this week Read More 

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Will Price Follow Volume for Broadcom?

by Arthur Hill

Broadcom (AVGO) fell on hards time in December with a decline to the breakout zone, but this zone ultimately held and it looks like the uptrend is ready to resume. First and foremost, AVGO is in a long-term uptrend after the big breakout in October and the 52-week highs in November. This long-term uptrend means I am focused on bullish setups and pullbacks within the uptrend.  The December pullback looks like a classic correction because the stock bounced right where it should. Notice that broken resistance turned into support and the stock held the throwback to this breakout zone Read More 

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Symantec (SYMC) Looks Well Supported Heading Into 2018

by Greg Schnell

Symantec (SYMC) spent 18 months rising off the lows of 2016. But since February of 2017, it has continually tested, found support at and held $28.00. This week the stock pushed off that level one more time. There are good reasons to look at a trade here. The relative strength of SYMC has been beaten down as shown by the SCTR ranking. However, this week it closed at 2 month highs with the SCTR moving out of the bottom quadrant and now sits at 25.8. While that's promising, it still points to a pretty weak stock. I find two particularly interesting places on the SCTR rankings. One is stocks Read More 

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BlackBerry (BB, BB.TO) Back To The Future!

by Greg Schnell

Blackberry (BB, BB.TO) looks like it is Back To The Future. The stock has been associated with a massive fall from grace in the wake of the Apple iPhone. But a couple of things have happened since those days. Blackberry built some serious tech infrastructure at the Waterloo university campus and started some exploratory ideas much like Google. Under John Chen's leadership, this company is starting to get some legs.  Technically, the RSI gave us a new bull market signal in May of 2017. The stock has consolidated since then and broke out of a Read More 

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FAANG Starts the Year with a Baang

by Arthur Hill

The five FAANG stocks, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet), started the year strong as three moved back above their 50-day SMAs on Tuesday. Alphabet and Amazon were already above their 50-day SMAs so this means all five are back above these key moving averages. The chart below shows all five with the patterns at work. First note that all five are in long-term uptrends because they recorded 52-week highs in the third quarter and are above their rising 200-day SMAs. The top window shows FB breaking out of a triangle consolidation. We can then see AAPL bouncing near Read More 

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Is Square (SQ) Setting Up A Move Off The Triangle?

by Greg Schnell

Square had a fabulous 2017. It ended the year with a bit of a pullback, but it might just be a nice opportunity. Square has formed a nice triangle right at a nice support level from early November. All of the payment system stocks had a good year last year. With the pickup in retail through the holiday season, this may just be the calm before the storm. I'd let someone else own it if it hits a stop just below $34. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA Read More