Analyzing India

Milan Vaishnav
About the author: , CMT, MSTA is an Independent Technical Research Analyst at his Research Firm, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services in Vadodara, India. With his experience in the Indian Capital Markets of over 15 years, he has been delivering premium India-focused Independent Technical Research and presently contributes on a daily basis to ET Markets and The Economic Times of India. He also authors India-focused "Daily / Weekly Market Outlook" - A Daily / Weekly Newsletter, currently in its 15th year of publication. Learn More

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Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Mild Pullbacks Likely But Broader Technical Setup Remains Weak; Volatility May Increase

by Milan Vaishnav

In our previous weekly note, we had mentioned the possibility of the markets not giving any runaway moves on the higher side. The week that went by remained on expected lines as the headline index resisted to one of its significant double top resistance areas, which lies in the 11840-11880 zones. In line with this analysis, the markets formed the weekly high around this point and then went into some corrective move. The NIFTY did not make any vital headway on either side and ended with a modest loss of 99.20 points (-0.84%) on a weekly basis. Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: No Runaway Surge Expected; Markets May Continue Exhibiting Negative Bias

by Milan Vaishnav

In yet another wide-ranging week, the NIFTY oscillated in a 400-point range, ending the week with a modest cut. In our previous weekly note, we had raised concerns about the NIFTY failing to confirm the attempted breakout. In line with the our analysis, the index did not show any intention to break above the critical resistance levels. After moving in a broad range, the NIFTY ended with a minor loss of 47.35 points (-0.40%) on a weekly note. The broader technical set-up does not paint a pretty picture for the markets going forward Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: With Breakout Not Getting Confirmed, Chasing Technical Pullbacks Should Be Avoided

by Milan Vaishnav

Throughout the previous week, the Indian equity markets remained less volatile than expected, but, at the same time, marked some important technical events. After trading in a 350-point range, the index hit its key resistance zones, retraced and ended the week with a modest loss. The RBI Credit Policy largely remained a non-event for the markets. The headline index NIFTY 50 ended with a net loss of 52.15 points (-0.44%) on a weekly note. The previous week also witnessed a few important technical events. The NIFTY marked its fresh incremental Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Markets May Face Broader Technical Headwinds; Volatility Likely To Resurface

by Milan Vaishnav

In yet another fairly eventful week, the Indian equity markets continued to digest the general elections fully, ending with a violent reaction to the portfolio allocation of the new set of cabinet ministers. After witnessing a 420-point trading range while marking incremental highs on a closing basis, the headline index NIFTY ended with net gains of 78.70 points (+0.66%) on the weekly note. The markets also ended the month while reacting to every possible event. The difference between the high and the low in the month of May was 932.85 Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Markets Set To See Wider Moves; Some Volatility May Resurface Again

by Milan Vaishnav

The Indian equity markets finished one their most eventful weeks as they faced the general election results. Though the move remained much on expected lines, the timing got little awry as the market finished the bulk of its reaction by rising after the exit polls rather than waiting for the election results. The election results saw both NIFTY and the Sensex testing their own historically high levels, followed by a retracement on account of profit-taking. Following an extensively wide-ranging trading week, the headline index NIFTY finally settled with net gains of 436.95 Read More 

Analyzing India

Special Weekly Note: Markets Set To Face A Volatile Week; Placed Differently Than In 2014

by Milan Vaishnav

The Indian equity markets witnessed one of their most volatile weeks in the recent past, oscillating back and forth in a relatively wider range before ending the week with a modest gain. After facing downward pressure in the initial days of the week, the NIFTY saw itself turning positive on the final trading day, ending with gains of 128.25 points (+1.14%). The 7-phase polling comes to an end this Sunday. Exit polls are scheduled to come out beginning Sunday evening and the results of the General Election are on May 23, 2019. Given this, the market is set to see Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Amid Feeble Attempts To Pullback, These Sectors May Relatively Out-perform

by Milan Vaishnav

After having failed to give any sustainable breakout above the 11760 levels, as well as having resisted to the lower trend line of the upward rising channel (which was breached on the downside in October 2018), the NIFTY finally gave up and ended the week with a cut. The Indian equity markets continued to correct throughout the week and ended negative on each working day. Having ended on a negative note for the eighth consecutive day, the NIFTY closed the week with a net loss of 433.35 points (-3.70%). We had mentioned in our previous weekly note that, despite attempts to Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: This Zone Is Set To Act As Stiff Resistance Area For The Coming Week

by Milan Vaishnav

In a truncated 3-day working week, the Indian equity markets headed nowhere and ended the week on a flat note once again. In our previous weekly note, we had mentioned the possibility of the NIFTY failing to break resistance at 11760. In the week that went by, though the markets remained generally volatile, the NIFTY did not make any fresh incremental high. The week ended on relatively flat note as the headline index settled with a net loss of 42.40 points (-0.36%) on a weekly basis. The NIFTY has yet to break above the 11760 mark, which is Read More 

Analyzing India

Are PSU Banks Likely to Outperform Private Banks? Answer Lies in the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG)

by Milan Vaishnav

We head in to a month that is set to be among the most volatile and eventful as the market faces one of the most important domestic events – General Election Results. The equity markets are currently hovering around their lifetime highs. On the one hand, they grapple with a not-so-favorable technical setup, showing persistent bearish divergence against its lead indicators. On the other hand, in the event of any favorable election outcome, we might see sporadic sharp up-moves happening. Amid this environment, an interesting rotation can be observed if we compare PSU Bank Index and Read More 

Analyzing India

Truncated Week May Offer Shallow But Volatile Moves; RRG Show These Sectors In Leading Quadrant

by Milan Vaishnav

The past week remained as flat as it can get. In our previous weekly note, we had expected the week to remain volatile and the level of 11760 continuing to pose stiff resistance to any up-moves. Hewing very close to expected lines, the Indian equity markets remained volatile, headed nowhere, continued to resist to the 11760 level and, finally, ended flat with meager gain of 1.85 points (+0.02%) on a weekly basis. We again face a truncated and short 3-day working week. There are two trading holidays; Monday on account of General Elections Voting in Mumbai and Wednesday because of Read More 

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