MarketWatchers LIVE

9/22 MarketWatchers Recap - Seasonality - - Sentiment

Erin Swenlin | 


Welcome to the recap of Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You can now watch the latest episode under the "Webinars" tab!

Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but the MWL Blog will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out the MarketWatchers LIVE ChartList for many of today's charts. Remember! You can now watch the latest episode under the "Webinars" tab!

Your comments, questions and suggestions are welcome. Our Twitter handle is @MktWatchersLIVE and/or #mktwatchers, email is and our Facebook page is up and running so "like" it at MarketWatchers LIVE. Don't forget to sign up for notifications at the end of this blog entry by filling in your email address. 

What Happened Today?


Talking Technically: On Friday Tom and Erin focus on interesting earnings news, upgrades/downgrades, etc. Tom reviewed the Russell 2000 to remark on the rally surge this week. Large cap indexes are looking weak. Computer hardware is also looking weak given the decline in AAPL. Tom reviewed CarMax (KMX) which came in above top and bottom for earnings. 

Erin looked at four downgrades: TIF, EXEL, RMBS and X. The interesting chart that could provide some opportunity off the decline today would be 


Seasonality Discussion: Tom pointed out from his blog that this week shows that this is the one week where we generally see all five days averaging with declines in the SPX. For more information, you'll want to check out Tom's blog from this morning. He thinks that it is rooted in money managers dumping stocks at that end of the third quarter that aren't performing well.


Earnings Spotlight - John Hopkins: The "Chart of the Week" as far as the earnings spotlight would be G-III Apparel Group (GIII). John's comments: "Stock was added to the Watch List yesterday at an initial price of $28.24 with a second entry on any pullback to $27.50 with a price target of $30.75 and a stop of any CLOSE below $27.20."


Ten in Ten Before One: In this regular segment, Tom reviews ten charts in ten minutes with Erin's comments and comments from the Twitter "peanut gallery" peppered in there. Send in your symbol requests via Twitter (@mktwatcherslive) before the show and we'll try and add them. Symbols reviewed today: BWXT, LMT, EUFN, MOMO, XRT, ILMN, HBHC, JNPR, INCY and SNY.  You'll find all of the charts in the MarketWatchers LIVE ChartList, located at the top of the MarketWatchers blog homepage.


Sentiment Update: Erin noted that sentiment continues to be split among individual investors and active money managers. Looking at the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment, we see that there are far more bulls than bears right now. Remembering that sentiment is contrarian, this would be bearish for the market.

However, the National Association of Active Investment Managers shows a steady pullback of exposure to equities. If money managers are bearish with sentiment being contrarian, that is bullish for the market.

The tiebreaker is the Rydex Ratio chart which shows in the thumbnail that money is rotating into the bear funds. Bearish money = bullish market.


Mailbag Segment: Each show Erin and Tom answer questions received via Twitter, Facebook and Email. Tom revisited the Biotech sector and discussed that money is beginning to rotate into Energy and likely more Biotech. He believes that earnings in the Energy stocks are and will be beating top and bottom line.  Erin discussed the inverse VIX on her ultra-short-term indicators chart and explained how she considers very low readings as overbought for the market. Expectation in the very short term would be a day or two of decline after an upside penetration of the inverse VIX Bollinger Bands. Tom and Erin agreed that low VIX readings are overall good for the market in the longer term, as longer-term rallies are built up as investors feel less 'afraid'.


It's a Wrap! In closing Erin discussed the Twitter viewer poll from Monday to see if viewers (and Tom and Erin) were correct in the market close for the week. The majority finish lower for the week and they likely will be mostly correct with the SPX closing lower at 0.04% for the week as of publishing. Look for our weekly sentiment polls at @mktwatcherslive on Twitter. This week, Tom and Erin are in disagreement. Erin believes the market will finish lower next week, while Tom believes it will finish higher. What do you think? Our viewer poll will be open on Twitter until showtime on Monday at noon EST.


Looking Forward:

Tune in on Monday at 12:00p - 1:30p EST on 9/25 for Monday Set-Ups. Tom and Erin will discuss which charts look hot or not for the upcoming week.

The regular segments, Ten in Ten to One and Mailbag are also on tap for Monday, where we look at your recent questions and symbol requests.

Don't miss it!!

Erin Swenlin
About the author: helped create and manage the website alongside her father, Carl Swenlin. Together, Erin and Carl launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009. She hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.
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