SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%.
Today’s volume jumped nearly 50% compared to the previous several days, suggesting short-term exhaustion and a bearish sign. SPY gapped up and, with today’s short-term volume exhaustion, a short-term pullback is possible to test open gap. If the market does pull back and the gap is tested on lighter volume (most likely, the test will be on lighter volume) and the TICK and TRIN reach near panic levels, that could produce a bullish setup.
The FOMC meeting started today and ends tomorrow. All indicators don’t work all the time; having said that, the TICK has worked well in the short-term this time around. The bottom window is the 5-minute cumulative TICK; it rises and falls with the market. It turned up yesterday and is still in an uptrend; it remains short-term bullish. The top window is the 100-period 5-minute chart of the TICK. Readings above “0” are bullish and today’s close came in at +30.16. Tomorrow is the final day of the FOMC meeting, producing uncertainty in the market direction. Volume did expand nearly 50% from the previous day's, which usually leads to short-term exhaustion and a short-term bearish sign. We don’t have a good setup here, but the market could test today’s gap up opening. Staying neutral for now. Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06.
Above is the monthly Gold market going back to late 2006. On the left side of the chart above is the “Price by Volume” indicator, which shows what prices has the most volume (going back to late 2006); in the case of GLD, the prices are from 120 to 130 levels. Once above the 130 level, GLD should find support near 130 (current close is 127.09). GLD appears to be drawing a Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern. This potential Head-and-Shoulders pattern has the neckline around 130, which is where the top of the “Price by Volume” levels lies. For a confirmed break of this area, a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) is needed, which may come sooner rather than later. I might add that there could be a “False Whipsaw” to get weak hands to fold before this strong move up gets underway. We have red boxes where GLD was up four months in a row, which happens in uptrends. The most recent four months up were from October 2018 to January 2019, giving support for an uptrend in GLD. The top window is the monthly RSI for GLD. A market is considered to be in an uptrend when RSI is above 50. The timeframe on this chart is the monthlies and the RSI is above 50, suggesting a longer-term move is in progress. GLD is setting at a price (130 neckline and Price by Volume level) where volatility should increase (where whipsaw first before SOS or just SOS). Look for price volatility to increase in the coming weeks. In a bull market, Gold stocks outperform gold and GDX should therefore outperform gold. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.
Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.
