StockCharts.comStockCharts.comExpert market commentary from StockCharts.comtag:stockcharts.com,2009:masterblog2024-03-18T23:48:40ZHow Would YOU Rank the Magnificent 7 Stocks?David Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-18:post-273622024-03-18T23:48:40Z2024-03-18T23:48:40Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/18/4a572f10-b033-4cad-bdef-bc9f7c630cf0.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave recaps the continued leadership rotation from growth to value, with SMCI breaking below $1000 and GOOGL dropping a shooting star candle on Monday's session. He walks through a process to compare and contrast the Magnificent 7 stocks, defining a clear "line in the sand" he's following on each chart.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 18, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/HxNBGl2C5T0" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave recaps the continued leadership rotation from growth to value, with SMCI breaking below $1000 and GOOGL dropping a shooting star candle on Monday's session. He walks through a process to compare and contrast the Magnificent 7 stocks, defining a clear "line in the sand" he's following on each chart.This video originally premiered on March 18, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded...DP Trading Room: Use a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) Sort to Find Winners!Erin Swenlintag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-18:post-273602024-03-18T17:47:40Z2024-03-18T17:47:40Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/18/0a8725b5-1867-49e0-8ef4-2215e4b984f1.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 120px;"></p><p>Today Carl and Erin open the show with an example of how you can find stock and ETF relative strength using a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) sort. Many may not know but PMO readings can be compared to one another to determine relative strength.</p><p>Carl gives us a review of the Magnificent 7 and looks at the market in general covering everything from yields to the indexes. Erin takes us on trip through the sectors and finds new strength in Comm Services with weakness still visible in Technology.</p><p>They finish the show with your symbol requests.</p><p>00:48 PMO Sorting</p><p>03:47 Magnificent 7 Review</p><p>07:42 Market Analysis</p><p>22:50 Questions Answered</p><p>27:30 Sector Overview</p><p>36:43 Symbol Requests</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Ykj6-o1WZn4" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><br></p><hr><h4><br></h4><h4><strong>Watch the latest episode of the <em>DecisionPoint</em><em>Trading Room</em> on DP's YouTube channel </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decisionpointcom" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a><strong target="_blank">!</strong></h4><p><br></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p target="_blank"><a href="https://decisionpoint.com/products.html" target="_blank"><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/10/29/46e3cccc-e3bf-4fba-8c66-1a2cb24ee9a1.jpg"></a></p><h2> Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!</h2><h2> Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!</h2><hr><blockquote><strong>Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin</strong></blockquote><hr><p><strong>(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com</strong></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.</em></strong></p><hr><p><strong><u>Helpful DecisionPoint Links:</u></strong></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=trend+model&id=chart_school:trading_strategies:decisionpoint_trend_model" target="_blank"><strong>Trend Models</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=pmo&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo" target="_blank"><strong>Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=obv&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv" target="_blank"><strong>On Balance Volume</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpsto" target="_blank"><strong>Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitbm" target="_blank"><strong>ITBM</strong></a><strong target="_blank"> and </strong><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitvm" target="_blank"><strong>ITVM</strong></a></p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=sctr&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank"><strong>SCTR Ranking</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2022/02/bear-market-rules-refresher-352.html" target="_blank">Bear Market Rules</a></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><br></p>Today Carl and Erin open the show with an example of how you can find stock and ETF relative strength using a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) sort. Many may not know but PMO readings can be compared to one another to determine relative strength.Carl gives us a review of the Magnificent 7 and looks at the market in general covering everything from yields to the indexes. Erin takes us on trip through the sectors and finds new strength in Comm Services with weakness still visible in Technology.They finish the show with your symbol requests.00:48 PMO Sorting03:47 Magnificent 7 Review07:42...Rates Look Set to Rise as TLT Resumes its DowntrendArthur Hilltag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-17:post-273582024-03-17T20:59:19Z2024-03-17T20:58:10Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/17/c4f9e6ab-4a15-48fb-a057-2b07cfdfa113.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 250px;">The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the downtrend in TLT translates into a resumption of the uptrend in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. </p><p>The chart below shows TLT hitting resistance-reversal zones twice: November 2021 and December 2023 (red shading). A key tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into future resistance and these resistance levels stem from broken supports. Notice how TLT broke down in early 2021 and then returned to broken support with the rising wedge (blue lines). See the end of this article for <a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe/" target="_blank">special offer from TrendInvestorPro.</a></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/17/98226c97-7b77-42d5-87a3-0e11df7f8383.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://schrts.co/IWvXZRbs')"></p><p>Another key tenet of technical analysis is that counter-trend advances retrace one to two thirds of the prior decline. In 2021, the counter-trend bounce retraced 50%. Think of this as two steps down and one step up. Downtrends prevail as long as the down legs are bigger than the counter-trend bounces. The rising wedge was a counter-trend advance. TLT broke down in early 2022 and fell into October 2023.</p><p>After hitting a new low in October 2023, TLT surged along with stocks in November and December. This surge also returned to broken support and broken support again turned into resistance (red shading). This advance also retraced around 61.8% of the prior decline. TLT is again failing at resistance as it fell back below its falling 40-week SMA this week. The next chart shows the 10-yr Treasury Yield turning back up and crossing above its 40-week SMA. A continuation higher targets a move towards 5.5%. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/17/1d2fa660-d824-471c-8ff6-f10cfe7bd1e9.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://schrts.co/QqTxwUfu')"></p><p><span target="_blank">TrendInvestorPro offers two services - and </span><a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe/" target="_blank">a limited time offer for both</a><span target="_blank">. </span>First, System Trader provides data-driven momentum strategies for Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks, and a mean-reversion strategy for Russell 1000 stocks. Second, Chart Trader reports and videos focus on stocks and ETFs with uptrends and tradeable patterns. Each week we cover the overall market environment and then feature highly curated trading ideas. <a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe/" target="_blank">Click here to learn more and get immediate access. </a></p>The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the downtrend in TLT translates into a resumption of the uptrend in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. The chart below shows TLT hitting resistance-reversal zones twice: November 2021 and December 2023 (red shading). A key tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into future resistance and these resistance levels stem from broken supports. Notice how TLT broke down in early 2021...Ignore The Naysayers, This Market Is On FIRE!!!Tom Bowleytag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-17:post-273572024-03-17T20:06:26Z2024-03-17T20:03:43Z<p>Happy St. Patrick's Day!</p><p>Last week was interesting for sure. Both February Core CPI (consumer price index) and February Core PPI (producer price index) came in above expectations. The headline PPI number <strong><em>doubled </em></strong>expectations. Despite that, the S&P 500 managed to close at an all-time high on Tuesday, the day the February CPI data was released.</p><p>This bull market remains extremely resilient and provides evidence of it nearly every day.</p><p>The vast majority of market analysts, in my opinion, expected that any weakness in the Magnificent 7 stocks would automatically be the end of this bull market. But they were wrong. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) is the only stock in the Magnificent 7 that has gained any significant ground over the past month. The weakening price action for growth stocks is typical during the 2nd half of calendar quarters (except for Q4). Growth stocks tend to take a back seat to value, especially compared to what happens during the 1st half of calendar quarters as we work our way through earnings season.</p><p>Let's look at the Magnificent 7 stocks to gain a better feel of what's been transpiring there:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/17/b956b2cf-9211-4cd3-8310-7075e6b230fa.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p58949279863&a=1632589453')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>For each stock, the pink line represents price action, while the black line represents the 10-day rate of change (ROC). Over the past couple weeks, there's been price deterioration in a few of these names, and especially on Tesla (TSLA), which has dropped a staggering 19% over this period.</p><p>The good news, however, is that during this more "risk off" kind of market, money is not leaving the stock market. Instead, it's helping to fuel a HUGE rally in other areas of the stock market, mostly value-oriented areas. This represents widening participation in this secular bull market advance, a key ingredient of bull market sustainability.</p><p>Earlier today, I created what could become a regular YouTube weekend video, "EB Weekly Market Recap" (see below). If you listen to it, please provide some feedback - either directly to us at "support@earningsbeats.com" or below the YouTube video in the comments section. Thanks!</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kvFzaR9ItY&t=511s" target="_blank">EB Weekly Market Recap Video</a></p><p>Happy trading!</p><p>Tom</p>Happy St. Patrick's Day!Last week was interesting for sure. Both February Core CPI (consumer price index) and February Core PPI (producer price index) came in above expectations. The headline PPI number doubled expectations. Despite that, the S&P 500 managed to close at an all-time high on Tuesday, the day the February CPI data was released.This bull market remains extremely resilient and provides evidence of it nearly every day.The vast majority of market analysts, in my opinion, expected that any weakness in the Magnificent 7 stocks would automatically be the end of this bull market...GREAT News: This Bull Market is Expanding!Tom Bowleytag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-16:post-273562024-03-16T18:04:39Z2024-03-16T18:04:39Z<p>We have seen just about everything we've needed to see to confirm this powerful secular bull market advance since the beginning of 2023. There was really only one thing missing and it's not missing any longer. I'll get to that in a minute.</p><p>But let's look at the most aggressive sector in the stock market and let's evaluate the growth vs. value trade that has characterized and driven a tremendous move higher in U.S. equities.</p><p><strong>Technology (XLK):</strong></p><p>Semiconductors ($DJUSSC) have been the lifeblood of technology's leadership and technology represents nearly 30% of the S&P 500 now - thanks in large part to the huge advance in technology shares. After a remarkable 200% advance in semiconductors over 15 months, we've seen the DJUSSC cool off a bit, which began with the bearish engulfing candle I pointed out one week ago:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/ba02fa28-72fd-4448-b918-8515136bb8ff.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSSC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p48240903561&a=1625700401')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>From the high on Friday, March 8th to the low on Friday, March 15th, the DJUSSC lost approximately 10%. That had an obvious impact on technology stocks in general, which lagged most sectors last week.</p><p>The very ugly bearish engulfing candle, together with the HUGE volume, is not to be ignored. It "could" represent a major top in this group for awhile, which isn't a bad thing. We shouldn't expect the DJUSSC to triple every 15 months, that's not sustainable. But if it pauses in the near-term, it's likely to have a significant effect as many of its component stocks are represented in both the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX). The group is much more heavily represented in the $NDX. Semiconductors represents nearly 22.86% and 9.76% of the $NDX and $SPX, respectively. While there's plenty of growth stocks in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100 is much more heavily impacted by growth stocks. That's why I like to follow the $NDX:$SPX ratio. It's a "growth vs. value" ratio that provides us one look at the risk environment that we're in. When the ratio goes up, we can typically conclude that the market environment is "risk on", which usually leads to higher stock prices. A falling ratio, however, can signal "risk off", which would mean more caution. Here's where we currently stand:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/104551ac-a64b-4f3e-8987-4ca3a5d65248.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX%3A%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p25641591526&a=1632203537')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>During the summer of 2023, the $NDX:$SPX ratio declined and this "risk off" signal resulted in a 10% correction as the benchmark S&P 500 followed suit to the downside. But look at the last 3 "risk off" readings in the $NDX:$SPX ratio. The S&P 500, for the most part, has kept gaining ground, especially over the past two months. What's changed?</p><p>Well, thanks for asking, because this was the missing ingredient in the secular bull market in 2024. Let me show you what's changed. It's called BULLISH ROTATION:</p><p><strong>XLI:$SPX</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/be861132-993a-4ee9-a06d-708885085a97.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI%3A%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p00331199644&a=1632204239')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>XLF:$SPX</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/2e85d812-a2bc-4726-a38e-584399542e7a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF%3A%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p66221184955&a=1632204755')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>XLE:$SPX</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/03992b1e-8f3f-4439-91df-c0bb2a5be061.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE%3A%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p82807839324&a=1632210683')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>XLB:$SPX</strong> </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/d0efe879-0602-421c-b0eb-8673c4909164.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLB%3A%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p48933796010&a=1632231649')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Over the summer months, when we turned "risk off", the proceeds from selling those aggressive sectors simply left the market, it didn't rotate to and create bullishness in other sectors in the market. You can see that by simply following all of those red directional lines for each of the 4 sectors shown above. This time is different and the above relative sector charts help us visualize the difference. </p><p>I believe technology will be fine in time, but a period of underperformance wouldn't be a bad thing at all. In fact, the rotation is creating tremendous opportunities in other areas of the market. You need to recognize this shift now, because it's increasing the likelihood that our current bull market run may only just be beginning.</p><p>In Monday morning's FREE EB Digest newsletter article, I'll be featuring a company (outside the technology sector) that recently broke out and looks poised for significantly higher price down the road as money has been pouring into its sector. You can <a href="https://www.earningsbeats.com/public/subscribe.cfm?ref=tp" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a> to sign up for this FREE newsletter with your name and email address. There's no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.</p><p>Take advantage of this rotation!</p><p>Happy trading!</p><p>Tom</p>We have seen just about everything we've needed to see to confirm this powerful secular bull market advance since the beginning of 2023. There was really only one thing missing and it's not missing any longer. I'll get to that in a minute.But let's look at the most aggressive sector in the stock market and let's evaluate the growth vs. value trade that has characterized and driven a tremendous move higher in U.S. equities.Technology (XLK):Semiconductors ($DJUSSC) have been the lifeblood of technology's leadership and technology represents nearly 30% of the S&P 500 now - thanks in large...Week Ahead: Technical Setup Stays Weak; NIFTY May See Corrective Pressure At Higher LevelsMilan Vaishnavtag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-16:post-273552024-03-16T15:51:00Z2024-03-16T15:51:00Z<p>After inching higher for six weeks with intermittent corrective bouts, Indian equities finally took a breather and succumbed to a corrective move as it ended the week on a negative note. In the previous weekly technical outlook, it was categorically mentioned that the markets remain prone to corrective retracement. In line with this analysis, the headline index Nifty 50 saw a meaningful technical retracement from higher levels. The trading range expanded on the expected lines with the index oscillating in a 620.-5 points range. While ending the week near its low point, the benchmark index closed with a net weekly loss of 470.20 points (-2.09%).<img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/f9b0174e-9ad3-4f69-9b32-3ca39458c20c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NIFTY&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p12302310978&a=475599006')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><blockquote>The technical setup does not paint a buoyant picture; given the previous week's price action, we can now consider the high of 22525 as an intermediate top for the markets unless taken out convincingly. Furthermore, there is also an emergence of a bearish divergence of the RSI on the weekly charts that may hint at the corrective mood of the markets persisting for some more time. The most important pattern support comes in the upper edge of the rising channel that the Nifty broke above, which also converges with the 20-week MA placed well below at 21264. The markets have a wider range to oscillate over the coming weeks.</blockquote><h4>The coming week may see a tepid start; the markets may show mild technical rebounds but may largely stay tentative. The levels of 22300 and 22410 may act as potential resistance points; the supports come in at 21900 and 21680 levels.</h4><p>The weekly RSI stands at 64.86; it has formed a fresh 14-period low which is bearish. It shows a bearish divergence of the RSI against the price. The weekly MACD stays positive but it sits on the verge of a negative crossover as evidenced by a sharply narrowing Histogram. </p><p>An occurrence of a large candle at the high point following a significant upmove also increases the possibility of the uptrend getting temporarily disrupted.</p><p>The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that the Nifty which had broken out from a rising channel when it crossed above 20800 levels is showing signs of fatigue. The levels of 22525 can now be regarded as a temporary top unless taken out convincingly; the big black candle at the top also hints at a temporary disruption of an upmove. The nearest pattern supports staying significantly below current levels.</p><p>All in all the coming week will see the markets wearing a defensive look; there are greater chances that it continues facing corrective pressure with each technical rebound that it may get. Defensive pockets like IT, Pharma, and FMCG may see some notable improvements in their relative strength, resulting in these groups either showing resilience or relative outperformance against the broader markets. It is recommended to approach the markets cautiously and curtail leveraged exposure. A cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.</p><hr><h2>Sector Analysis for the coming week</h2><p><em>In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.</em><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/16/8b1bf865-0e61-4cb4-8afb-f07abea35576.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show Nifty Commodities, Energy, and PSE sectors are inside the leading quadrant but they are slowing down in their momentum. Besides this, Nifty Pharma, PSU Bank, Infrastructure, IT, and Auto Indices are inside the leading quadrant as well. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets.</p><p>The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The broader Nifty MidCap 100 index is also inside the weakening quadrant.</p><p>The Nifty Media Sector Index is seen languishing inside the lagging quadrant along with FMCG Index. However, besides being inside the lagging quadrant, the Financial Services, Banknifty, and Services Sector Index are seen improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.</p><p>The Nifty Consumption Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant.</p><hr><p><strong><em>Important Note: </em></strong><em>RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. </em></p><hr><p><strong>Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA</strong></p><p> Consulting Technical Analyst</p><p> <a href="www.EquityResearch.asia" target="_blank"><strong>www.EquityResearch.asia</strong></a><strong> | </strong><a href="www.ChartWizard.ae" target="_blank"><strong>www.ChartWizard.ae</strong></a></p>After inching higher for six weeks with intermittent corrective bouts, Indian equities finally took a breather and succumbed to a corrective move as it ended the week on a negative note. In the previous weekly technical outlook, it was categorically mentioned that the markets remain prone to corrective retracement. In line with this analysis, the headline index Nifty 50 saw a meaningful technical retracement from higher levels. The trading range expanded on the expected lines with the index oscillating in a 620.-5 points range. While ending the week near its low point, the benchmark index...How To Profit From Bullish Gap-Down ReversalsMary Ellen McGonagletag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-16:post-273542024-03-16T02:51:05Z2024-03-16T02:51:05Z<p>The S&P 500 ended the week with a slight pullback that has this Index closing below its key 10-day simple moving average, but above its 21-day moving average. With the RSI and MACD in positive territory, the near-term uptrend in this Index remains in place. While last week's orderly price action is in line with four other nominal pullbacks we've seen so far this year, there's been plenty of turbulent price action beneath the surface, as investors have responded sharply to several high-profile companies after the release of their earnings reports.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/745deee2-4446-446b-938b-05ee4afa940f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p16503036779&a=1626199264')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Daily Chart of S&P 500 Index</span></p><p>For many who follow my work, you'll know that I'm quite bullish on gaps up in price after earnings, as they often lead to further upside after a period of consolidation to digest the large gain. A prime example would be Shake Shack (SHAK), which gapped up in price after the release of strong earnings in mid-February, which pushed the stock out of a base and into an uptrend. SHAK was a part of my <a href="https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report" target="_blank">MEM Suggested Holdings List </a>just prior to the release, and it remains on our buy list as it's in an uptrend.</p><p>Today, we're going to focus on stocks that gap down after earnings but then go on to reverse that gap down. These stocks will generally have more work to do before entering a new uptrend; however, shorter-term investors can take advantage of any reversal if using the proper intraday chart to guide your entry.</p><p>Let's take a look at Switzerland-based footwear company On Holding (ONON). The stock gapped down 18% on Tuesday after reporting earnings that were below estimates. As you can see on the daily chart below, investors came in on the dip so that it closed the day down 8%. The stock has continued to trade higher, and ONON is now in an uptrend.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/64919b79-ede6-41e5-b31c-d865ea032438.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ONON&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p51212641077&a=1631984474')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Daily Chart of On Holding (ONON)</span></p><p>As investors begin to buy the stock on the dip, shorter-term investors will want to keep a close eye on a 15 minute/intraday chart. Using the same indicators as on a daily chart, the first positive signal would be a close above the 5 and 13 simple moving averages. From here, you'll be on the lookout for confirmation of an uptrend by way of the RSI moving above 50 and into positive territory. For ONON, this took place in the $30 range. In order to stay with the trade, both signals would need to remain in place which, in this case, would have netted 10%.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/c724ca36-040d-4715-9b2d-06c7be0026a8.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ONON&p=15&b=5&g=0&i=p14665001910&a=1631986177')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Intraday/15-Minute Chart of On Holding (ONON)</span></p><p>As noted earlier, the broader markets are in an uptrend and, while constructive, the Technology sector is close to turning negative after several heavyweight areas came under selling pressure last week. For those who'd like insight into what's taking place within this leadership area of the markets, <a href="https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report" target="_blank">use this link here to take a four week trial </a>of my twice-weekly MEM Edge report at a nominal fee. You'll also receive information relating to rotation taking place elsewhere in the markets, as well as alerts to a reversal of the current market uptrend.</p><p>Warmly,</p><p>Mary Ellen McGonagle</p>The S&P 500 ended the week with a slight pullback that has this Index closing below its key 10-day simple moving average, but above its 21-day moving average. With the RSI and MACD in positive territory, the near-term uptrend in this Index remains in place. While last week's orderly price action is in line with four other nominal pullbacks we've seen so far this year, there's been plenty of turbulent price action beneath the surface, as investors have responded sharply to several high-profile companies after the release of their earnings reports.Daily Chart of S&P 500...MEM TV: Risk-Off Signals Possible Downside AheadMary Ellen McGonagletag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-16:post-273532024-03-16T01:29:16Z2024-03-16T01:29:16Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/860417b9-3a0a-415c-8e2d-f6728ce50e89.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-mem-edge.html')"></p><p target="_blank">In this episode of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The MEM Edge</em><span target="_blank">, Mary Ellen reviews investors' responses to the rise in interest rates after inflation numbers come in higher than expected. She also shares how riskier areas of the market sold off while cyclicals came into favor. Earnings reports continue to dictate price action as well, and Mary Ellen examines names that impacted the markets.</span></p><p target="_blank">This video originally premiered March 15, 2024. Click here or on the above image to watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-mem-edge.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>MEM Edge </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV.</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/MjK8z0d-M3E" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The MEM Edge </em>premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrTQoftiLdfZvWMmBcd5cW2Z" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p><p target="_blank">If you're looking for stocks to invest in, <a href="https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report/" target="_blank">be sure to check ou</a><a href="https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report/" target="_blank">t the MEM Edge Report!</a> This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.</p><p><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/08/07/f35324a2-d72b-40eb-9524-680243b361cc.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://www.simplertrading.com/join/report/')"></p>In this episode of StockCharts TV's The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews investors' responses to the rise in interest rates after inflation numbers come in higher than expected. She also shares how riskier areas of the market sold off while cyclicals came into favor. Earnings reports continue to dictate price action as well, and Mary Ellen examines names that impacted the markets.This video originally premiered March 15, 2024. Click here or on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV.New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on...Stop Trading In The WRONG DIRECTION With This Simple RuleGrayson Rozetag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-16:post-273522024-03-16T01:23:07Z2024-03-16T01:23:07Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/bdb03022-3857-409b-8de2-ec152909d4ac.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/in-focus.html')"></p><p target="_blank">On this week's edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">StockCharts in Focus</em><span target="_blank">, Grayson shares a little trick out of his own process to make sure he's trading in the right direction. If you find yourself buying a new stock only to watch it go down, down, down multiple days in a row, or you sell out of a position only to watch that thing go up, up, up; well, it's a good bet that you are trading in the wrong direction. Grayson shares how you can avoid this costly situation.</span></p><p target="_blank">This video originally premiered on March 15, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/in-focus.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>StockCharts in Focus </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV.</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/hDxbFfJRJ-o" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">You can view all previously recorded episodes of <em>StockCharts in Focus</em> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrSmtsKugnLYrnFTRlpyPDP6" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a>.</p><hr><p target="_blank"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/03/24/e1764364-62a4-4736-a232-e65b4e98f833.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p>On this week's edition of StockCharts TV's StockCharts in Focus, Grayson shares a little trick out of his own process to make sure he's trading in the right direction. If you find yourself buying a new stock only to watch it go down, down, down multiple days in a row, or you sell out of a position only to watch that thing go up, up, up; well, it's a good bet that you are trading in the wrong direction. Grayson shares how you can avoid this costly situation.This video originally premiered on March 15, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in...What's the Downside Risk for QQQ?David Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-15:post-273512024-03-15T23:02:08Z2024-03-15T23:02:08Z<p>The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is beginning to show further signs of deterioration, from bearish momentum divergences between price and RSI to weakening breadth using the Bullish Percent Index. How can we determine whether a pullback could turn into something more disastrous for stocks? Let's look at how the 50-day moving average, Chandelier exits, and Fibonacci retracements can help anticipate downside risk for the QQQ.</p><p>To kick things off, we need to acknowledge how the QQQ has a place of distinction on the growing list of charts showing bearish momentum divergences.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/6f80985e-9104-425d-9d6c-acd5d90901bb.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>This <a href="https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/checklist" target="_blank">classic sign of a bull market top</a><span target="_blank"> is when price continues to trend higher while the RSI (or some other momentum indicator) begins to slope downwards. Think of this pattern as a train running out of steam as it reaches the top of a hill. This weakened momentum usually occurs at the end of a bullish phase, when buyers are exhausted and there just isn't enough momentum left to push the markets much higher.</span></p><p>But it's not just about weakening momentum. Breadth conditions, which remain fairly constructive for the broader equity space, have really deteriorated in the past ten weeks.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/87deba77-4714-428c-a55e-3ba5c382dfb8.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here, we're showing the Bullish Percent Index for the Nasdaq 100. This is a market breadth indicator based on point & figure charts, and basically measures how many stocks in a specific index are currently showing a bullish point & figure signal.</p><p>Note how, in late December, this indicator was around 90%, meaning nine out of every ten Nasdaq 100 members were in a bullish point & figure phase. This week, we saw the indicator finished just below 50%. This shows that about 40% of the Nasdaq 100 members generated a sell signal on their point & figure charts in 2024.</p><p>What's very interesting about that particular development is that point & figure charts usually have to show quite a bit of price weakness to generate a sell signal. So names like TSLA, AAPL, and others are breaking down, which suggests that further upside for the QQQ would be limited until this breadth indicator improves.</p><hr><p><em>Are you prepared for further downside for the QQQ and leading growth names? The first item in my Market Top Checklist has already been triggered. Join me for </em><a href="https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/checklist" target="_blank"><em>my upcoming FREE webcast</em></a><em target="_blank"> on Tuesday, March 19th, where I'll share the other six items on the checklist and reflect on what signals we'll be watching for in the coming weeks. Sign up </em><a href="https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/checklist" target="_blank"><strong><em>HERE</em></strong></a><em target="_blank"> for this free event!</em></p><hr><p>So what if the Nasdaq 100 does continue lower? At what point can we confirm that a corrective phase has truly begun? I like to keep things simple, so, in terms of an initial trigger for a tactical pullback, I always start with the 50-day moving average.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/073c6d51-4298-4bbc-80ef-71ac56077f41.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The 50-day moving average currently sits about $6 below Friday's close, and also lines up pretty well with the February swing low around $425. So as long this level would hold, the short-term trend actually remains in good shape. A break below that 50-day moving average would tell me there is a much higher likelihood of further price deterioration.</p><p style="margin: 6pt 0in;">But the 50-day moving average, while a simple and straightforward situation, is perhaps not the most effective way to gauge a new downtrend phase. Alexander Elder popularized the <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:chandelier_exit" target="_blank">Chandelier Exit system</a><span target="_blank"> in his books, and it represents a more nuanced version of a trailing stop because it is based on </span><a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:average_true_range_atr" target="_blank">Average True Range (ATR)</a><span target="_blank">.</span></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/221a08b2-7473-4450-9ed5-3a0d5a0b3375.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Look back at the price peak in July 2023, and notice how the price remained above the Chandelier Exit through that price high. Soon after, the price violated the trailing stop to the downside, suggesting the uptrend phase was over and a corrective move had begun. Since the October 2023 low, the QQQ has consistently remained above the Chandelier Exit on pullbacks, as the price achieved higher highs and higher lows into March. After Friday's drop, the Nasdaq 100 remains just above this effective trailing stop indicator.</p><p style="margin: 6pt 0in;">So what if the Chandelier Exit is violated next week, and the QQQ begins to drop to a new swing low? What's next for the Nasdaq 100?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/5988522e-b43e-4437-91c8-90d6741d5c72.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Fibonacci Retracements can be so helpful in identifying assessing downside risk, because they measure how far the price may pull back in relationship to the most recent uptrend. Using the October 2023 low and the March 2024 high, that would give an initial downside target around $408. Further support could be at the 50% level ($395) and the 61.8% level ($382).</p><p>Note how well these levels line up with previous swing lows, especially the 61.8% retracement level. That last support level lines up with the swing low in December 2023, as well as the price peak in July 2023. I refer to that sort of level as a "pivot point" because it has served as both support and resistance, and these are often important levels to monitor.</p><p>A number of the mega-cap growth stocks, such as TSLA and AAPL, have broken down in recent weeks. But the latest patterns of bearish momentum divergences and declining breadth conditions tell us that there may be further downside in store for the Nasdaq 100. By keeping a watchful eye on trailing stops and potential support levels, we can perhaps navigate choppy market waters using the power of technical analysis.</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/mA7iHhs0JAM" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in;">RR#6,</p><p>Dave</p><p><strong>P.S.</strong> Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my <a href="https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse" target="_blank">free behavioral investing course</a><span target="_blank">!</span></p><hr><p style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;"><strong>David Keller, CMT</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 6pt;">Chief Market Strategist</p><p>StockCharts.com</p><hr><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: </em></strong><em>This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><em>The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></p>The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is beginning to show further signs of deterioration, from bearish momentum divergences between price and RSI to weakening breadth using the Bullish Percent Index. How can we determine whether a pullback could turn into something more disastrous for stocks? Let's look at how the 50-day moving average, Chandelier exits, and Fibonacci retracements can help anticipate downside risk for the QQQ.To kick things off, we need to acknowledge how the QQQ has a place of distinction on the growing list of charts showing bearish momentum divergences.This classic sign...Spot The Warning Signs of Bankruptcy!David Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-15:post-273492024-03-15T20:56:32Z2024-03-15T20:56:32Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/fbd1d503-7df6-4e4c-be2a-a43baf06bee8.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave presents an in-depth discussion on technical analysis patterns, market trends, and risk management. Explore how to spot bankruptcy risks, candlestick patterns, Dave's approach to QQQ, optimizing the Market Trend Model, RSI and MACD signals, "master risk on/off chart" analysis, scanning for strong performers, and charting timeframes.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 15, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/qBD7ljnw3h4" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave presents an in-depth discussion on technical analysis patterns, market trends, and risk management. Explore how to spot bankruptcy risks, candlestick patterns, Dave's approach to QQQ, optimizing the Market Trend Model, RSI and MACD signals, "master risk on/off chart" analysis, scanning for strong performers, and charting timeframes.This video originally premiered on March 15, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You...Decisive Long-Term Breakout for GoldCarl Swenlintag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-15:post-273482024-03-15T19:33:00Z2024-03-15T19:00:39Z<p>This month, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) broke out to new, all-time highs. That was a significant long-term move, which we will discuss when we get to the monthly chart.</p><p>Of more immediate interest is the fact that sentiment is still bearish, which bodes well for a continued advance. We gauge sentiment based upon whether closed-end fund Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is selling at a premium (bullish sentiment) or discount (bearish sentiment). Currently, PHYS is selling at a discount to NAV.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/7021c005-86d8-444b-8abf-60e18848b34f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p25196892659&a=806582784')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The weekly chart gives a better perspective of the significance of the breakout, which was decisive. The overhead resistance has held GLD back for more than three years, and has now become support.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/35f2a779-bb2a-4db0-9436-59b1dd6d57a8.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&i=p54196597135&a=1550507115')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>But the monthly chart shows that it has been a much longer wait than three years. Gold made all-time highs back in 2011, following which it declined nearly fifty percent. It finally recovered to new, all-time highs in 2020, but it has been stalled until this month. Practically speaking, gold investors have been waiting about 13 years for this encouraging move. The positive side is that gold has established a solid high-level base at around 2,000 to provide future support. Also note how bullish sentiment got (a premium of about +14%) during the parabolic advance on the left side of the chart.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/f2dcc9d7-b9fa-4b62-b3c5-6cf97620d85f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&i=p46611677074&a=701504271')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Investing in gold presents some difficulties that must be considered. <em><u>(Disclaimer: This is information, not a recommendation.)</u></em> If you buy physical gold, you have to have a safe place to store it. A safe deposit box can be accessed/frozen by the government, and an adequate safe is expensive, difficult to move, and entails some vulnerability. Some ETFs, like GLD, do not actually own physical gold. An alternative is iShares Gold Trust (IAU), which is a closed-end fund that owns physical gold. Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is similar to IAU, but it is a foreign entity based in Canada. Consider the implications of all options available.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/a709b718-ab5c-41bb-8458-12a3549a0be0.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IAU&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&i=p95087252578&a=1631445841')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> Gold's recent breakout was a long time coming and appears to have positive long-term implications. Also, the long period of consolidation has created an impressive base of long-term support.</p><hr><p><strong>Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/66qsogtAq_M" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></div><hr><h4><strong>Watch the latest episode of the <em>DecisionPointTrading Room</em> on DP's YouTube channel </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decisionpointcom" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a><strong target="_blank">!</strong></h4><hr style="width: 923px;"><p target="_blank"><a href="https://decisionpoint.com/products.html" target="_blank"><img src="https://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/10/29/46e3cccc-e3bf-4fba-8c66-1a2cb24ee9a1.jpg"></a></p><h2> Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!</h2><h2> Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!</h2><hr><blockquote><strong>Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. -- Carl Swenlin</strong></blockquote><hr><p><strong>(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com</strong></p><hr style="width: 923px;"><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></p><p><em>DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.</em></p><hr><p><strong><u>Helpful DecisionPoint Links:</u></strong></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=trend+model&id=chart_school:trading_strategies:decisionpoint_trend_model" target="_blank"><strong>Trend Models</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=pmo&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:dppmo" target="_blank"><strong>Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=obv&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_obv" target="_blank"><strong>On Balance Volume</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpsto" target="_blank"><strong>Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)</strong></a></p><p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitbm" target="_blank"><strong>ITBM</strong></a><strong target="_blank"> and </strong><a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators:dpitvm" target="_blank"><strong>ITVM</strong></a></p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=sctr&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank"><strong>SCTR Ranking</strong></a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2022/02/bear-market-rules-refresher-352.html" target="_blank">Bear Market Rules</a></p><hr>This month, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) broke out to new, all-time highs. That was a significant long-term move, which we will discuss when we get to the monthly chart.Of more immediate interest is the fact that sentiment is still bearish, which bodes well for a continued advance. We gauge sentiment based upon whether closed-end fund Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is selling at a premium (bullish sentiment) or discount (bearish sentiment). Currently, PHYS is selling at a discount to NAV.The weekly chart gives a better perspective of the significance of the breakout, which was decisive...Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Resumes its UptrendArthur Hilltag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-15:post-273462024-03-16T12:33:43Z2024-03-15T14:43:32Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/43cae9c0-d2a5-437f-a72f-9185c3c7ec70.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 249px;">The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) is showing strength here in March as it breaks back above its 40-week SMA. More importantly, the long-term trend is up and this week's breakout argues for a continuation of this uptrend. </p><p>The chart below shows XES with a big breakout surge in the fourth quarter of 2020. Even though this move reversed the long-term downtrend, the advance over the last three years is quite choppy. The green dashed lines show a rising channel with the 40-week SMA (red line) in the middle. XES crossed this moving average several times as it slowly zigzagged higher. Despite choppy trading, the long-term trend is clearly up on this chart. See the end of this article for <a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe/" target="_blank">special offer from TrendInvestorPro. </a></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/3f71d758-ed76-4392-88c9-d81215f3744a.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://schrts.co/cdhVvRiK')"></p><p>Short-term, I am seeing a breakout after a pullback. The red shadings show prior dips below the 40-week and each dip represented more of an opportunity than a threat. XES dipped below the 40-week SMA in December and remained below from early January to early March. The ETF turned up the last few weeks and surged above its 40-week SMA this week. This move reverses the downswing within the rising channel and argues for a continuation of the bigger uptrend. The upside target is around 110 and a closes below 81 would argue for a re-evaluation. </p><p>TrendInvestorPro offers two services - and <a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe/" target="_blank">a limited time offer for both</a>. First, System Trader provides data-driven momentum strategies for Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks, and a mean-reversion strategy for Russell 1000 stocks. Second, Chart Trader reports and videos focus on stocks and ETFs with uptrends and tradeable patterns. Each week we cover the overall market environment and then feature highly curated trading ideas. <a href="https://trendinvestorpro.com/subscribe/" target="_blank">Click here to learn more and get immediate access. </a></p><p>//////////////////////////////////////////////////</p>The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) is showing strength here in March as it breaks back above its 40-week SMA. More importantly, the long-term trend is up and this week's breakout argues for a continuation of this uptrend. The chart below shows XES with a big breakout surge in the fourth quarter of 2020. Even though this move reversed the long-term downtrend, the advance over the last three years is quite choppy. The green dashed lines show a rising channel with the 40-week SMA (red line) in the middle. XES crossed this moving average several times as it slowly zigzagged...Missed Out on Micron's 112% Surge? Here's Your Second Chance!Karl Montevirgentag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-15:post-273452024-03-15T18:12:49Z2024-03-15T12:50:39Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/9c4a9d0c-b90f-47b8-8c35-ed4d9598dea4.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit an all-time high of $101.85 last week, but it couldn't sustain or surpass it.</p><p>Leading up to its apex was a solid year-and-a-half of gains, returning 112% from September 2022 to the present. The latest narrative fueling the stock's bullish case is that MU has joined the AI party. Having already been selected by Nvidia (NVDA) to provide high-bandwidth memory (HBM) components for its next-gen AI chips, analysts note that this might extend to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).</p><p>An opportunity for future growth? Fundamentally speaking, yes. But does MU look a little toppy? Possibly. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/hpiC8bNk6kVPORz_TVObmxT2-HVaOy-rHv2tj72xmMxBYdPhO51NURkgHixQu8VPYhOyYYgdoPaI6j4hIjuLdDD4KuM4BRrS76yyN6FJE5v6caX_fceFmaBzc5nGbEzN6hVUFM0EMqoljgeDmTnHedg"></p><p><span class="image-caption">CHART 1. MONTHLY CHART OF MICRON TECHNOLOGY (MU). Note the shooting star, a harbinger for a pullback.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p>Overlaying the 60-month <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:moving_averages" target="_blank">simple moving average</a><span target="_blank"> (SMA) representing five years, you can see that prices have often bounced off this average price level. Prices have also reversed twice (in 2021 and 2022) from the resistance range that marked its most recent record high. As MU pulls back, how close might it get to its average five-year price before advancing again?</span></p><p>Also, note the <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=glossary_s#shooting_star" target="_blank">shooting star</a><span target="_blank">, which strongly indicates the likelihood of a bearish reversal (a 59% occurrence based on technical analyst Thomas Bulkowski's historical stats).</span></p><h2>Using a <em>Bearish</em> Technical Scan on a Strong Stock to Find a <em>Bullish</em> Signal</h2><p>On Wednesday, MU came up as a scan result for a bearish <strong>Parabolic SAR Sell Signals</strong> scan using the StockCharts scan engine. With an <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:sctr" target="_blank">SCTR score</a><span target="_blank"> above 78 (meaning, not super bullish but not bearish either) and a strong fundamental case as mentioned above, the bearish scan was an effective way to find a potentially strong "long" prospect in the midst of pulling back.</span></p><p>And that's what the chart revealed.</p><p><img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/XJ118k_Yw1Gl14S9l-30XilXdMW-9DGdKEics-Ktyj4Nb19qtjur8uR6BkWxKJxCZMDxMvX71VAAxPFkozlPqqcbFKfOWRgJk3xGsQB07xHLdhI-ilIZIajNFPTs7R8O_4ZvUaDgFRVIfotO1oZtWYg"></p><p><span class="image-caption">CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF MICRON TECHNOLOGY. Running a bearish scan on a fundamentally strong stock can sometimes help you identify prospects for a bullish position.</span><em><span class="image-caption">Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.</span></em></p><p>When MU's price broke below the <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:parabolic_sar" target="_blank">Parabolic SAR's</a><span target="_blank"> trailing stop, there was a clear bearish divergence between the price surge and the drop in buying pressure, as indicated by the </span><a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:chaikin_money_flow_cmf" target="_blank">Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)</a><span target="_blank">.</span></p><p target="_blank">Given MU's strong fundamental prospects, investors might be looking for entry points. In that case, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) have been plotted to anticipate potential reversals toward the upside. In addition to this, notice how the <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:stochastic_oscillator_fast_slow_and_full" target="_blank">Stochastic Oscillator's</a><span target="_blank"> reading coincides well with MU's cyclical movements.</span></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/15/65964197-bb22-48da-accd-0134ae7188e1.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: right; width: 550px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/')"></p><p>The idea is to look to both the Stochastic Oscillator and the SMAs to anticipate and identify a reversal that might serve as a long entry point. The reversal candlestick should be supported by substantial volume and momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator, whose cyclical fluctuations seem very much in sync with MU's swings, and the SMAs can both help you time a favorable entry.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>Having used a bearish scan (Parabolic SAR Sell Signals) to uncover a bullish opportunity, Micron Technology Inc (MU) presented itself as a potential trade prospect. Having reversed from its all-time high, the fundamental case for MU remains strong. The bearish scan initially suggested a sell, revealing the opposite—a buying opportunity amidst a pullback. This approach underscores the value of a nuanced analysis, where bearish technical signals in the context of solid fundamentals can identify opportune moments for strong trade. In the case of MU, you'll have to see if this thesis pans out as it dips further down.</p><hr><h3>How to Run a StockCharts Scan </h3><p>Finding the right stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to trade can be tricky. But with a little work, you can create a strategy identifying a few promising prospects.</p><p>Fortunately, it isn't too hard to learn how. Just stick to these steps:</p><ul><li>Select (or create) a few different scan criteria</li><li>Be sure to run these scans regularly</li><li>Analyze the stocks (or ETFs) that your scan has identified</li><li>Determine your overall trading setup (including your entry and exit criteria)</li></ul><p>The <a href="https://support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans" target="_blank">StockCharts Scan Engine</a><span target="_blank"> is helpful in narrowing down stocks and ETFs that match specific requirements. It comes with many ready-made scans that are a good starting point. As you get the hang of these scans, you can adjust them or create new ones that align with your trading goals.</span></p><p>For example, this article was prompted by a <strong>Parabolic SAR Sell Signals</strong> scan. As you can imagine, there are plenty more scans you can run. Try out the StockCharts <strong>Sample Scan Library (Charts & Tools > Sample Scan Library)</strong></p><hr><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><em>The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></p>Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit an all-time high of $101.85 last week, but it couldn't sustain or surpass it.Leading up to its apex was a solid year-and-a-half of gains, returning 112% from September 2022 to the present. The latest narrative fueling the stock's bullish case is that MU has joined the AI party. Having already been selected by Nvidia (NVDA) to provide high-bandwidth memory (HBM) components for its next-gen AI chips, analysts note that this might extend to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).An opportunity for future growth? Fundamentally speaking, yes. But does MU look a little...The Mighty Have Fallen! TSLA and NVDA On The RocksDavid Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-15:post-273442024-03-15T00:11:19Z2024-03-15T00:11:19Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/14/059f7183-02bc-40db-a09b-0aa3307eadee.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave tracks the day's weaker session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down slightly and the small cap S&P 600 down 1.6%. He covers energy stocks breaking higher on stronger crude oil prices, and shows how MSFT and GOOGL have diverged from weaker charts in the mega cap growth space such as TSLA, AAPL, and NVDA.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 14, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/_cCdc9f377s" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave tracks the day's weaker session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down slightly and the small cap S&P 600 down 1.6%. He covers energy stocks breaking higher on stronger crude oil prices, and shows how MSFT and GOOGL have diverged from weaker charts in the mega cap growth space such as TSLA, AAPL, and NVDA.This video originally premiered on March 14, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously...These Signals Will Improve Your Timing!Joe Rabiltag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-14:post-273422024-03-14T19:33:55Z2024-03-14T19:32:35Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/14/b1ab0c46-3540-4983-b673-146f6d51686c.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/stock-talk.html')"></p><p>On this week's edition of <em>Stock Talk with Joe Rabil</em>, Joe explains how to use the MACD crossover signal and the Pinch play signal. There are times when one is better than the other, and he uses several examples to show this distinction. He discusses how the low price entry is not always the best one. Joe then covers the stock requests that came through this week, including IBM, CNBS, and more.</p><p target="_blank">This video was originally published on March 14, 2024. <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/stock-talk.html" target="_blank"><strong>Click this link </strong></a><span target="_blank">to watch on StockCharts TV.</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/XwfeXUOaYh4" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank"><span target="_blank">Archived episodes of the show are available at </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrSj1miY1X_aHY6ow9EjvqC2" target="_blank"><strong>this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.</span></p>On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe explains how to use the MACD crossover signal and the Pinch play signal. There are times when one is better than the other, and he uses several examples to show this distinction. He discusses how the low price entry is not always the best one. Joe then covers the stock requests that came through this week, including IBM, CNBS, and more.This video was originally published on March 14, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to...Market Research and Analysis - Part 1: Why Technical Analysis?Greg Morristag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-14:post-273012024-03-14T19:00:00Z2024-03-14T19:00:00Z<p><strong><em>Note to the reader:</em></strong><em> This is the twelfth in </em><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/dancing/2023/12/the-hoax-of-modern-finance-par-950.html" target="_self"><em>a series of articles</em></a><em> I'm publishing here taken from my book, "Investing with the Trend." Hopefully, you will find this content useful. Market myths are generally perpetuated by repetition, misleading symbolic connections, and the complete ignorance of facts. The world of finance is full of such tendencies, and here, you'll see some examples. Please keep in mind that not all of these examples are totally misleading -- they are sometimes valid -- but have too many holes in them to be worthwhile as investment concepts. And not all are directly related to investing and finance. Enjoy! - Greg</em></p><hr><p>Technical analysis offers an unbiased truth about the markets. If one is going to follow and utilize a particular discipline, hopefully they have done a thorough investigation as to the benefits and pitfalls of that discipline.</p><p>Today I'll share a short story from the mid-1970s, a period of my life when I was a Navy fighter pilot, and, of course, knew everything. I had a few thousand dollars that I wanted to invest. I honestly can't recall my source for research, but I'm almost positive I didn't pay for any of it; probably a trip to the Public Library and probably the Value Line Investment Survey. This is a giant black ring binder with a single page dedicated to a single stock in the Value Line universe of about 1,700 issues. I know the research was quite thorough, and it probably took me a few months to even work up the nerve to actually speculate (I called it invest back then) in the market. I don't even recall the small brokerage firm I used, but I do remember that discount firms were being talked about, though none were in existence then (I think). There was no FNN (Financial News Network), CNBC, Fox Business, or Bloomberg television in those days.</p><p>My research efforts involved the typical fundamental review looking for stocks that met a host of different criteria, using ratios such as price to earnings, price to dividend, price to book, and so on. I do know that the price to sales ratio had not been created yet; I think it was developed by Ken Fisher in the 1970s and became widely used in the 1980s. So I bought two stocks in late 1972; I remember that one of them was UAL (United Airlines). Clearly my bias for aviation was part of the decision—a bias that this book is trying to teach is totally wrong.</p><p>For two months, they went straight up. I have to be honest, I thought I was truly brilliant. I was euphoric. Then, in early 1973, my brilliance turned to anxiety when the prices of both stocks started to decline. Fear of losing money was now dominating my thought process. Strangely, nothing entered my mind in regard to selling those stocks, or putting a stop loss order in (I doubt I even knew what that was then), I just knew I was right and was going to prove it. Well, as I recall, I held those two stocks until sometime in 1975. They had declined with the market and, by the end of 1974, were down 75 percent from where I bought them. I had no stops, I had no plan, I had no money management, I had nothing but an ego that kept me totally wrong for two years. The market started up in early 1975 and I was so happy to unload them for a few percentage points above their bottom, I swore I'd never gamble in the market again. However, I remember that it sure made me feel good to buy a stock, because the financial ratios were good. Fortunately, I quickly learned that feeling good has very little to do with making money in the markets.</p><p>It was then that I read a book, suggested by a good friend, called <em>The Art of Low Risk Investing</em>, by Michael Zahorchak. I had previously read a few other books on technical analysis, but none of them involved a process; they usually dealt with chart patterns, and so on. Zahorchak offered a complete and rational technical process to investing. The book has long been out of print, but I'm sure you can find it on eBay or somewhere. If you are having doubts about technical analysis, this book will correct that. I have never deviated from technical analysis since that experience in the mid-1970s; I believe it is the best way to help investors control their emotions during the investment process.</p><p>Figure 9.1 shows the NYSE Composite Index with my interpretation of the Zahorchak method overlaid. Whenever the Zahorchak method line is above zero (horizontal line), one should be invested in equities; when below zero, one should be invested in cash or cash equivalents. One could further fine-tune it by using various levels for different asset commitments to enhance the process. The Zahorchak method uses only weekly data, with moving averages of 5, 15, and 40 on the NYSE Composite Index and the NYSE Advance Decline Line for its signals. The same process is then applied to stocks for selection. A complete set of rules is given on how to make trades from that data.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/05/4934985c-f95a-40d6-8b1d-5bce1b7d50d2.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Now, within technical analysis, there are many varied approaches. Many of which I have tried, but was not successful. I like to say that I have a master's degree in what not to do, as those lessons came at a significant cost. As I have aged, I have slowly learned not to speak in absolutes about the market, as any approach that one can use to be successful is the right approach for that person. Just because I don't care for some approach does not mean that someone else cannot use it successfully.</p><p>There are different types of market analysis. The most widely used is fundamental analysis, which focuses on multiples or fundamental ratios. Almost 90 percent of these ratios use price, usually in the numerator or sometimes in the denominator. Price earnings ratio, price to sales, price to dividends, price to book ratio, and so on, are just a few of them.</p><p>Technical analysis, however, is the analysis of price. Price is what we buy. When you buy a stock, you are not buying the earnings, the products, the management, dividends; you are buying the stock at a market-generated price. Those other things might be why you buy it, but they are not what you are buying, you are buying the stock, not the company.</p><p>Trend determination is the trend of the price that we are analyzing. Trend analysis is a significant part of what this book is all about. Breadth analysis is a derivative of price movement; it is a critical contribution to technical analysis. Relative strength analysis is the analysis of one group relative to another; one example is the relationship between small-capitalization stocks and large-capitalization stocks. However, most importantly, technical analysis bridges the gap between doing the analysis and taking action—it is just the next step.</p><h3>What is Technical Analysis?</h3><p>Martin Pring says the art of technical analysis is to identify trend changes at an early stage and to maintain an investment position until the weight of the evidence indicates that the trend has reversed. Although there are other definitions, Pring's definition is the one I agree with. It is primarily used two ways: predictive and reactive. Most newsletter writers, television experts, and brokerage firm analysts use it to predict the market. The reactive mode means that it is used to measure what the market is doing, then just react to that information. The subject of this book is all about the latter. React, don't predict.</p><p>For additional reading on technical analysis, I strongly recommend <em>Technical Analysis</em>, by Charlie Kirkpatrick and Julie Dahlquist. It is the best single volume on technical analysis there is.</p><h3>I Use Technical Analysis Because...</h3><p>It is something we can believe in and rely on. It removes the destructive emotions of fear, hope, and greed.</p><blockquote>"Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process." — Benjamin Graham (the great value investor)</blockquote><p>It keeps our perceptions clear.</p><blockquote>"It ain't what you know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so." — Mark Twain</blockquote><p><em>And the absolute most important thing technical analysis does is it gives us discipline.</em></p><p>I want to share a story with you. I have been on a diet my entire adult life. Seriously! Last spring (as of this writing), my wife and I were driving in the north Georgia mountains one Sunday afternoon. I stopped at an old filling station for gas. It had the old-style pumps, so I had to go inside to pay for the gas. I see a candy bar near the register and buy it. As I 'm walking back to the car, I can see my wife giving me "that look." You know that look, don't you? I get in the car and she says, "You just don't have any discipline." I said, "That's not true, because you don't know how many of these I wanted."</p><p>I tell that story because discipline is not a knob or a lever that you can subjectively set each day. Discipline is something that must be instilled into your life and your work. I think everyone will agree that when it comes to investing, a disciplined approach is probably going to be a better approach. I'll take that one step further and say that a disciplined life is probably going to be a good life. Discipline is a critical element for success in the stock market and in life.</p><h3>The Challenge of Technical Analysis</h3><blockquote>"I know of no way of judging the future but by the past." — Patrick Henry</blockquote><p><em>Warning:</em> I share passionate opinions in this section. As of this writing, I am approaching 40 years of being actively involved in technical analysis; you can assume correctly that I have some strong opinions on things. To be perfectly honest, those opinions have changed from time to time, but I do want to share them here. Does this mean that I think I am correct and anything I question is wrong? Not at all, most of technical and, in particular, market analysis is arguable and controversial. I just focus on what works for me.</p><p>What is technical analysis? Books are filled with definitions and interpretations on technical analysis. A significant part of technical analysis is the art of studying the past, attempting to identify a pattern or event that seems to represent or reflect the market being studied, and then believing that it will work with some certainty in the foreseeable future.</p><p>My definition for technical analysis and my adherence to using it comes from a belief that everyone needs something to believe in or rely on. I believe in technical analysis because of its close relationship to the supply and demand of the market. Fundamental analysis, which is by far a more popular method of analysis, is generally flawed in that it does not address the issue of "when." When should I buy or when should I sell? Researching the hundreds of different fundamental ratios is the full-time job of thousands of securities analysts. However, think about this simple fact. Almost all fundamental ratios involve price. So why not analyze price? Most forms of technical analysis do just that.</p><p>Is technical analysis the same as market timing? Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. Market timing has received a bad rap, especially by those who believe it is a process by some who blindly follow some over-optimized mechanical system without utilizing money management or an asset commitment plan. In that regard, its bad rap is appropriate. The analysis of risk and reward is not market timing in the sense that many think of when using that often misused term. Determining when the market has too much risk is not market timing, but prudent and discretionary investment decision-making. Next time you hear a brokerage firm analyst mention that no one can time the market, or that technical analysis does not work, ask to see his record during the bear markets of 2000 to 2002 or 2007 to 2009. Heck, he probably wasn't a stockbroker then anyway. I hate it when I call salespeople stockbrokers. They are not stockbrokers, as that is what the company they work for is called; they are salespeople for a stockbroker. I feel better now.</p><p>I have a cassette tape that I received from Sedge Coppock, the founder of the San Antonio firm, Trendex. This was in 1983 when I was heading a group of technical analysts in Dallas and wanted him to come up and speak to us. He declined, but sent a tape, which was about 30 minutes in length, in which he said how inept most investors were at controlling their emotions and that even worse than that was when they sought advice from a stockbroker. Sedge did not hold stockbrokers in high regard. I was fortunate to attend the Market Technician's Association annual seminar in Naples, Florida in 1989 when Edwin Sedgwick Chittenden Coppock received their highest award, the MTA Annual Award. He passed away the next year.</p><p>Another challenge to technical analysis is that of whether it is an art or a science. I cannot believe anyone would seriously ask this, and suspect the question comes almost totally from the nonscientific or the innumerate among us. I do believe that scientists, engineers, and mathematically inclined investors migrate toward technical analysis over time because of its ability to look back in history and see how supply and demand played out. It is certainly a more analytical approach to market analysis.</p><p>Many claim that technical analysis is science. My response is that the person making the claim is neither a scientist nor an engineer, and clearly doesn't know the difference between art and science. Finance and economics are considered social sciences, which is a wide swath into the wrong direction. Neither are science, they are arts. You don't get a bachelor of science degree in them; you get a bachelor of arts degree.</p><p>Here's the difference between art and science. Science is when you can reliably repeat something within predefined parameters. For example, I know that at sea level, with the ambient temperature at 59 degrees Fahrenheit or 15 degrees Centigrade (59 - 32 = 27. 27 / 9 = 3. 3 x 5 = 15), and the atmospheric pressure is 29.92 inches or 1,013 millibars, that pure water H2O, in laboratory conditions, will boil at 212 degrees Fahrenheit or 100 degrees Centigrade. I'll bet a large sum of money on it. I can't think of anything in finance, economics, or technical analysis in which I would do that.</p><p>Those who get excited and experience a warm feeling about the overused adjectives of quality, strong, healthy, and so on, when Wall Street talks about investing in specific companies, are surely the ones who think technical analysis is witchcraft. Years ago, I used to be entertained by watching <em>Wall Street Week</em>, and was humored by the fundamental analysts who would talk endlessly about how they liked to pick good quality companies and hold onto them. They then quickly point out the Ibbotson study that shows that equities have performed at about a 9-plus percent annual rate for the past 100 years. Hogwash! While the study is true, it is totally irrelevant as one does not have a 100-year investment horizon, and is therefore not applicable to humans. Most investors have a good 20-year period in which to make their serious investments. There were many 20-year periods in the past 100 years that resulted in negative or inadequate returns. The most egregious example is if you had bought in 1929, you did not break even until 1954; 25 years later. And guess what, getting even is not what investing is all about.</p><p>A good detective will tell you that some of the least reliable information comes from eyewitnesses. When people observe an event, it seems their background, education, and other influences unrelated to the observed event, color their perception of what occurred. Most will also be influenced by what they hear from others. This is also amplified by a number of individual studies done by behavior psychologists. In a nutshell, they all agree that groups of people will tend to amplify the consensus view rather than challenge it. A group's ability to focus on common knowledge and uncover anything new is commonplace. Plus the fact that if someone in the group is acknowledged as an expert, their opinion can totally dominate the thinking for the group and can lead to what is known as the <em>herd</em> mentality. Talk radio is a perfect example of this.</p><blockquote>"The riskiest moment is when you are right. That's when you're in the most trouble, because you tend to overstay the good decisions." — Peter Bernstein </blockquote><p>I don't want to turn this into a science book, but I am adamant about correcting the proliferation of bad or incorrect information that exists in the financial markets and by showing you similar misconceptions that you may have believed before is the best way to get your attention. In a previous chapter, there was a discussion about believable misinformation; if you found that you believed one or more of those misconceptions, then how many market-related ones do you also believe?</p><p>Technical analysis will let you deal with reality and keep you from falling victim every time the financial news offers their expert opinion on why the markets did today what they did. I remember when the Indonesian earthquake tidal waves killed thousands of people, but you could not begin to know how many during the initial broadcasts. Most news sources were stating guesses anywhere from 15,000 to well over 150,000. Many news sources cannot even keep the number consistent within their own articles. Do you think they can also tell you why the markets did what they did on a daily basis? Stick to technical analysis; it will increase your understanding of the markets, if only by the fact that you are uncovering information about market behavior.</p><p>Here are some comments on technical analysis that I read more than 35 years ago in <em>The Commodities Futures Game</em> by Richard Teweles, and believe to be just as valid today. Almost all methods of technical analysis generate useful information, which, if used for nothing more than uncovering and organizing facts about market behavior will increase the investor's understanding of the markets. The investor is made painfully aware that technical competence does not ensure competent investing. Speculators who lose money do so not always because of bad analysis, but because of the inability to transform their analysis into sound practice. Bridging the gap between analysis and action requires overcoming the threat of greed, hope, and fear.</p><p>Technical analysis is the art of analysis that will keep your emotions from being a part of your investment decision making. While not infallible, it certainly gives you the tools to assist in overcoming the human traits of ignorance and bliss. Ignorance is an intellectual state and appears to be chronic in many people as regards to the stock market. Bliss is an emotional state and it characterizes many investors as long as the market is going up. Deluded by emotions, one cannot begin to be successful in the investing arena without some means of controlling greed, fear, and hope. This is what I think technical analysis does best.</p><hr><p><em>Thanks for reading this far. I intend to publish one article in this series every week. Can't wait? The book is for sale </em><a href="https://store.stockcharts.com/products/investing-with-the-trend?_pos=2&_sid=4556a7133&_ss=r" target="_blank"><em>here</em></a></p>Note to the reader: This is the twelfth in a series of articles I'm publishing here taken from my book, "Investing with the Trend." Hopefully, you will find this content useful. Market myths are generally perpetuated by repetition, misleading symbolic connections, and the complete ignorance of facts. The world of finance is full of such tendencies, and here, you'll see some examples. Please keep in mind that not all of these examples are totally misleading -- they are sometimes valid -- but have too many holes in them to be worthwhile as investment concepts. And not all are directly...Key Support Levels Broken, BUT Breadth is Bullish!David Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-14:post-273392024-03-14T00:13:02Z2024-03-14T00:13:02Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/13/506ec448-2d72-40ca-9471-0f0fe38decee.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave focuses on the resilient strength in market breadth indicators, suggesting a leadership rotation continues as growth stocks like AAPL and TSLA fail to hold key support. He highlights stocks making new three-month highs, including FCX, SCCO, and WSM.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 13, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/i6yrw4mlmYU" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave focuses on the resilient strength in market breadth indicators, suggesting a leadership rotation continues as growth stocks like AAPL and TSLA fail to hold key support. He highlights stocks making new three-month highs, including FCX, SCCO, and WSM.This video originally premiered on March 13, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.Is Coinbase Stock About to Crater? Here's One Way to Exploit ItKarl Montevirgentag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-12:post-273362024-03-12T22:46:52Z2024-03-12T22:46:52Z<p>With an astounding SCTR score of 99.6, Coinbase (COIN) is soaring to the sun, but its wings of momentum appear to be melting.</p><p>Despite hitting a two-year high (and Bitcoin hitting an all-time high), the entire crypto marketspace is in a foggy haze of confusion, stemming from the Federal Reserve's March 11 Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) expiration (which can affect liquidity and affect various markets including Bitcoin), and the upcoming Bitcoin halving mid-April. COIN's potential bearish setup is clear. As an aside, it also came up as part of a bearish Filled Black Candles scan using StockCharts' scan engine.</p><p>So, if you're looking to maul a few hopeful bulls in the near-term, here's your potential kill box.</p><p><img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/kBfZKI7kPpwZngvnzUeCwgRcuKj6VokAXLuKBvdpCU_xyKHHMpRzvlbdlwIV9J6qi0Qjkj9KpqhYqz03IS6hjU7EAkGqzKopOCktLbcbhY8dIwoWHc-Y4OHg4SJ3FRyf-WJ5CxEsGE7svBk6kKO9sH8" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF COINBASE.</span></p><p>The <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi" target="_blank">Relative Strength Index (RSI)</a><span target="_blank"> locates COIN's price, well within "overbought" territory. But if you look at the </span><a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:chaikin_money_flow_cmf" target="_blank">Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)</a><span target="_blank"> reading, not only do you see a dramatic divergence between buying pressure and soaring prices, but the CMF is now below the zero line, hinting that </span><em target="_blank">sellers are potentially taking over. </em>Yet if you look at the current candle, you see a <em>strong rejection off the session lows</em>, meaning that a lot of buyers jumped in to create the "pin bar" that we now see (see blue circle highlighting the wick).</p><p>So, what do you think might happen once price falls below the pin bars low?</p><h2>One Possible Way to Trade This</h2><p>There are likely several stop losses right below the wick at $242.09 (see black dotted line). If prices fall below this level, it's likely to trigger a cascade of sell orders (stop losses).</p><ul><li>If you're looking to take advantage of this bear run, you might set a sell stop order to go short at $242.05.</li><li>You might think of placing a stop loss (buy to cover) at $271.70 (just five cents above the most recent swing high).</li><li>Your first target would be anywhere in the range between the middle <a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:bollinger_bands" target="_blank">Bollinger Band</a><span target="_blank"> and the resistance line at approximately $188.00.</span></li><li>Your second target would be at the support line located at $166.00, the last major swing low.</li></ul><p>Bear in mind that this is not a long-term trade but a short-term bearish opportunity. It has no bearing on any fundamental case—bullish or bearish—surrounding COIN's longer term prospects.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>Despite its stellar SCTR score of 99.6 and seemingly unstoppable ascent, Coinbase (COIN) may be flying too high, risking a dramatic fall. For those who smell a bearish opportunity, this potential descent offers a clear setup for entry and exits. Be careful! Going short the market can assume unlimited. Hence, the stop loss is a few cents above the highest high.</p><h2>How to Run a StockCharts Scan</h2><p>Finding the right stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to trade can be tricky. But, with a little work, you can create a strategy that identifies a few promising prospects.</p><p>Fortunately, it isn't too hard to learn how. Just stick to these steps:</p><ul><li>Select (or create) a few different scan criteria</li><li>Be sure to run these scans regularly</li><li>Analyze the stocks (or ETFs) that your scan has identified</li><li>Determine your overall trading setup (including your entry and exit criteria)</li></ul><p>The <a href="https://support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans" target="_blank">StockCharts Scan Engine</a><span target="_blank"> is useful for narrowing down stocks and ETFs that match certain requirements. It comes with a bunch of ready-made scans that are a good starting point. As you get the hang of these scans, you can adjust them or create new ones that align with your trading goals.</span></p><p>For example, this article was prompted by a Runaway Gap Ups scan. As you can imagine, there are plenty more scans you can run. Try out the StockCharts Sample Scan Library (Charts & Tools > Sample Scan Library).</p><hr><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><em>The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.</em></p>With an astounding SCTR score of 99.6, Coinbase (COIN) is soaring to the sun, but its wings of momentum appear to be melting.Despite hitting a two-year high (and Bitcoin hitting an all-time high), the entire crypto marketspace is in a foggy haze of confusion, stemming from the Federal Reserve's March 11 Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) expiration (which can affect liquidity and affect various markets including Bitcoin), and the upcoming Bitcoin halving mid-April. COIN's potential bearish setup is clear. As an aside, it also came up as part of a bearish Filled Black Candles scan using...What Loss?! NVIDIA and ORACLE Rip HigherDavid Kellertag:stockcharts.com,2024-03-12:post-273352024-03-12T22:29:19Z2024-03-12T22:29:19Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/03/12/09391114-ddcd-4370-9f50-7bd4eb41d641.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html')"></p><p>In this edition of <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv" target="_blank"><strong>StockCharts TV</strong></a><span target="_blank">'s </span><em target="_blank">The Final Bar</em><span target="_blank">, Dave breaks down today's market action direct from New York, tracking technology shares including NVDA and ORCL regaining lost ground after last Friday's losses. In a segment called Crypto Corner, he outlines two ways to apply the technical analysis toolkit to Bitcoin, using price projection tools along with trend-following indicators like moving averages.</span></p><p>This video originally premiered on March 12, 2024. Watch on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/the-final-bar.html" target="_blank"><strong>our dedicated <em>Final Bar </em>page</strong></a><span target="_blank"> on StockCharts TV!</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/I3OnxuFok1k" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p target="_blank">New episodes of <em>The Final Bar </em>premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO" target="_blank"><strong>at this link</strong></a><span target="_blank">.</span></p>In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave breaks down today's market action direct from New York, tracking technology shares including NVDA and ORCL regaining lost ground after last Friday's losses. In a segment called Crypto Corner, he outlines two ways to apply the technical analysis toolkit to Bitcoin, using price projection tools along with trend-following indicators like moving averages.This video originally premiered on March 12, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every...