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StockCharts.com's Weekly Summary of Market Trends, Signals and Changes

10 November 2001

Hello Fellow Chart Watchers!

With the market near or at a short term top, now's a great time to survey what others out there are thinking. There's lots of fresh new faces in our Public Charts lists area right now. Let's take a quick tour though some of the more popular contributors and see what they are saying:

Raghee Horner - By combining traditional chart pattern analysis (triangles, pennants, gaps) with Fibonacci, MACD and StochRSI signals, Raghee short-term approach has quickly gained a loyal following here. After looking at the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, Raghee presents a well annotated collection of charts that span the entire market spectrum - from IBM to OVER. Here's a great example of Raghee's work:

Wahteng Ho - Both long- and short-term views are available in Wahteng Ho's "Market Watch." The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are features in monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly charts. Large candlesticks are used to spot common chart patterns - PPO, RSI and CMF indicators confirm the analysis:

Ana Maria Gallo - The "Grand Dame" of StockCharts, Ana's list has been voted "Most Popular" every month so far. If you like Andrew's Pitchforks, Williams %R, and gap analysis, "amg Market Studies and Commentary" is definitely for you!

Arnaud Michel - "Market" is the succinct name for Arnaud's heavily annotated chart studies. L-o-n-g intraday studies are the unique drawing card here. 30-40 days of hourly data as well as 8-10 days of 5-minute bars are featured.

There are many, many more great charts like these posted every day in our free Public Charts area. I encourage you to visit all of the lists there on a regular basis. Even if you disagree with the list's author, studying other people's charts will only improve your analysis abilities in the long run. And don't forget to vote for your favorite each day! - Chip




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Site News
  • A Good Week for StockCharts
    Thanks to everyone who sent words of encouragement to us last week. They make all of our hard work seem more worthwhile and make it easier to ignore the vocal opinions of the rude minority. Unlike last week, site stability has returned (knock on wood). We even set a new traffic record on Thursday with nary a problem!


  • The "Ultimate" Improvement
    For the first time in months, we've been able to add another indicator to our SharpCharts toolkit - Larry William's Ultimate Oscillator. You can learn all about it by reading our new ChartSchool article here. Enjoy!


  • NYSE Bullish Percent Progress
    We've also managed to clear up another mystery that has been plaguing us for weeks - why are our NYSE Bullish Percent numbers are so different from those published by DWA. We are multiplying the amount of data that goes into these calculations by a factor of 10 in search of greater accuracy. Look for our corrected data to be posted later this week. As always, it will be available for free and updated every evening.


  • P&F Favorites Progress Update
    It seems that P&F people can sometime be impatient. We continue to make good progress on incorporating our new graphical P&F charts into the website and hope to have P&F Favorites available soon. First, we'll replace our text-based charts with the new graphical version (previewed here), then we'll integrate them with the Extra! Favorites lists, finally we'll add support for annotations. Stay tuned...
    Note: Pestering us with questions asking when _exactly_ things will be ready only slows us down. Remember, good things come to those who wait...


Arthur Hill's TDTrader

StockCharts.com is thrilled to announce the return of Arthur Hill's commentary to our newsletter. Old-timers know Arthur as the author of much of our ChartSchool area. His new website contains his in-depth market analysis updated daily. Here we present an excerpt of his commentary for the weekend.


Up until early summer, gold stocks were one of the top performing groups. Even though the PHLX Gold/Silver/Copper Index ($XAU) advance from 41.61 to 66.54 seemed impressive, it now appears to be just a reaction rally within a larger bear market. Prior to 66.54, the last major reaction high formed at 99.72. The move to 66.54 retraced 62% of the prior decline (99.72 to 41.61) and ended with a dark cloud formation on the weekly charts (red arrow). The ensuing summer decline was sharp, but the index managed to hold above its Nov-00 trendline until last month.

Despite a war against terrorism, gold stocks broke a key support level on 9-Oct that projects a move to the mid 40s. I interpreted the 6-month pattern as a measured-bear-move. The first decline was from 66.54 to 51.30. The index then formed an ascending price channel (magenta trendlines) that retraced 62% of the prior advance. This price channel looks like a large flag and the October support break suggests a continuation of the prior decline. Based on the first move down, we can expect another 15.5 points from the reaction high at 50.44.

A closer look at the daily chart reveals an important resistance level and potential reversal last week. The support break at 56.5 (blue arrow) turned into resistance after a 62% retracement. After moving above 54.75 (black arrow), the index formed a harami and then a doji. These candlesticks sometimes foreshadow a reversal, but require confirmation. The move above 56 on Wednesday seemed to negate these candlesticks, but the subsequent long black candlestick and close below 54 confirms a bearish reversal. Based on the weekly and daily charts, my expectations are for XAU to trade lower over the next few weeks and months. A move above 57 would call for a re-evaluation of this bearish prognosis.


If you want more of Arthur's intuitive commentary, check out his website: TDTrader.com - Site includes: Market Commentary, Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies. Take your TA to the next level!



The Rhodes Report

It is quite clear the Nasdaq Composite rally has caught many off guard, and many are commenting that this current rally has gone too far too fast. These are very dangerous words, for they imply that they know more than the market - but exhibiting prudence through the move higher is far more important. While we believe the rally may be losing short-term momentum, the longer-term technical picture continues to be constructive as the 14-week stochastic continues to move higher. To wit, it has not yet reached the 70 level upon which the May 2001 rally faltered. Thus, we could see short-term weakness followed by a longer-term move into overhead resistance at 2,300.


For Richard's latest award-winning commentary, check out his website: TheRhodesReport.com - Highly recommended!



John Murphy's Market Watch
OIL SERVICE BOUNCE MAY HURT BONDS

OSX BOUNCING... A combination of a deeply oversold condition in oil prices -- and an upcoming OPEC meeting next week with increasing talk of sharp production cutbacks -- are combining to attract some money back into the beaten-down oil stocks. The strongest group in the oil patch is the PHLX Oil Service (OSX) Index. A few weeks back, we showed the OSX rising over its 50-day moving average -- which is usually sign of a short - to intermediate - term bottom. After pulling back, the OSX has bounced off that support line and is rising again. There's not nearly enough evidence to call this a major bottom. But those traders with a shorter time horizon may find this group appealing. The Relative Strength line along the bottom also shows new leadership by the OSX.

OSX LEADERS... The following three charts show some of the oil service leaders over the past week -- in alphabetical order. Baker Hughes has already broken a major down trendline and is back over its 200-day moving average. NBR and NE are well below their 200-day lines, but have bounced nicely off their 50-day averages. NBR has already cleared its July peak. NE still has to get through similar resistance near 34.





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Take care,
   Chip




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