Weekly Stock Charts

Jonathan Parsons Rank: 52 Followers: 17 Votes: 1 Years Member: 13 Last Update: 26 June 2016, 19:45 Categories: Chart Patterns
Trend Analysis
Volume Analysis

June 26th 4:44P Update: It's a good thing that they closed the markets on Friday or the selling would have continued! Ha! OK, let's recap first. Last Friday, we had an inside type day on the SPY's and Q's, so the highest probability is an expansion after the contraction and that's what we got. Right out of the gate, we get a big gap up to sell (because you know we're not going to the moon ahead of Brexit). Beautiful. I ditched my XIV @ 29 and RSP @ 80.89 and I was happy to sell at those prices. Then we faded the rest of the day. Usually when that happens, we'll dip the next day to shake out the overly aggressive buyers....and that's what happened. Boom! Dip at the open on Tuesday, I bought IYR and DVY (small) early on Tuesday - both went ex-dividend, too. We then proceeded to churn the rest of the week before running up on Thursday. Ditched DVY @ 84.55 and held IYR into the news. Brexit news was a 50/50 play, so it's best to be heavy in cash or hedged. I was heavy in cash - probably should have been more hedged. Oh well. Vote was 52% in favor of Exit and down she goes! OK, now what? First, look at stuff that's going up.....risk-off is getting some flows: TLT's, GDX, GLD, VXX, etc. Defensive plays like REITs, Utes, Telecoms, etc. all held up well. The next tier down would be stuff like DVY, SPLV, XLP - still defensive but more multinationals. After that, you have more aggressive plays like small-caps and even XIV (which will bottom at some point). What's next? These kind of major events can take a few *weeks* to play out. That's not the end of the world - although it might feel that way. We went out on the lows + there's probably more selling to come. Best case scenario is we have an inside type day. More likely is we run stops at Friday's low and then see if we can rally. For my part, I plan to do some more buying (small) in ultra-conservative stuff (REITs, Utes, Telecoms) if we get whacked again on Monday as those ETFs were barely phased at all

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