Weekly Stock Charts [Box Theory]

Jonathan Parsons Rank: 75 Followers: 11 Votes: 1 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 31 January 2015, 19:22 Categories: Chart Patterns
Trend Analysis
Volume Analysis

Jan 31st 2015 Update: How quickly things change! Last week was a tough one for me. I couldn't get a clear read on the trend and had to scramble a bit to close out longs & grab some shorts. Ended the week with mostly cash & booked almost all my shorts. So far in January, the trend has been....'no trend'. I've made some adjustments to the $SPX charts on the front page because I've been mostly a trend follower since the bull market started. Now we seem to be sliding into a trendless phase. Last year was somewhat similar for the first few months of the year and I didn't adjust quickly enough - trying to learn from that & adjust. At some point, a strong trend will emerge (up or down) and we'll be in fat city again. OK, what's working? Bonds (any kind, any duration - as long as they are highly rated). Some gold miners (AU, GFI, PZG, for example). Oil had a big move on Friday, I'm watching to see if that was a 1 hit wonder or the start of something larger. Volatility is up (obviously). What's not working? Multinationals that blame currency effects for poor performance (large consumer staples, etc). Overall, the stock market looks sloppy to me - not bearish or bullish - just sloppy. Cumulative $TICK suggests that the current price trend (down) will fail, i.e., we bounce. Now if $TICK starts to roll, it could be 'look out below'. The most likely scenario to me is a break of the range (to run all the stops), snap back (to get everyone long again), and then more slop. The market (& algo's) love to prey on obvious stop levels. Stay flexible & nimble. or just stay in cash, take a break, go fishing. Better times (trends) are surely ahead. Good luck all.

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