Weekly Stock Charts

Jonathan Parsons Rank: 68 Followers: 13 Votes: 1 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 29 August 2015, 10:09 Categories: Chart Patterns
Trend Analysis
Volume Analysis

Aug 21st 5:30P Update: Wow! What a week!!! Everyone is asking, 'is this a buy?' Not for me. Will we get a bounce at some point? Absolutely. But you don't buy vicious slices through S2 that close below VWAP. The risk is that it gaps down even more on Monday (same set-up as Thursday into Friday). If we had some stabilization towards the close, some sign of short covering, some sign of bulls buying....anything, really.....you could start buying with a stop. We didn't get any of that. So, you would be buying on hope that it goes up....and hope is a 4-letter word. The weekly $SPX chart went negative for the first time since 2011! Yes, Virginia, the last bear cross was August 2011. That's probably not a bad model of what to expect (2011). We didn't reach the absolute low for ~2 months in 2011. And it took until the end of the year to get back to bull mode on the weekly. Short-term, besides being viciously oversold, elevated $VIX, etc. - the only minor positive is the small caps didn't get smoked as bad as you might think. That's very mildly bullish, but you need more than that to make a trade. What else showed some RS? Homebuilders ($ITB) - watch for a bounce here (and small caps) first. Most bounces will be short set-ups until the weekly trend changes. Many charts were broken this week and it will take some time to repair. Bottomline, if you've got fast fingers, watch for a bounce in small caps + homebuilders, expect the first rally attempt to fail (and then look to short); longer-term trend has turned bearish....usually this is a good time to raise cash + wait for better days ahead for new longs. I'm going on vacation for a few days.

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