= 060 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Larry Stanczak Rank: 49 Followers: 12 Votes: 34 Years Member: 14 Last Update: 19 February 2018, 10:27 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bullish>2650; Intermediate Term Neutral<2800; Short Term Neutral<2775
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.


000 Commentary

2/16/2018 Levels to Be Aware of

2900/2904 ? Round Number; Monthly R1
2873 - All-Time Closing High (1/26/18); All-Time High (1/26/18)
2832 ? Weekly R2
2793/2800 ? Monthly PP; Round Number
2784 ? Weekly R1
2751/2754 ? 20 DMA (declining); Last Week High

2732 ? Last Week Close

2725 ? 50 DMA
2713 ? Monthly S1
2700/2703 - Round Number; Weekly PP
2682 ? Jan 2018 Low
2671/2674 ? 10 DMA (declining); 2017 Close
2649/2652 ? 100 DMA; Weekly S1
2622 ? Last Week Low
2600/2606 ? Round Number; Monthly S2; Dec 2017 Low
2585/2589 ? 10% Below $SPX High; 150 DMA
2571 ? Weekly S2
2557 ? Nov 2017 Low
2547 - 200 DMA (close 7.3% above)
2533 ? Reaction Low
2520/2523 - Oct 2017 Low; Weekly S3; Monthly S3
2500 ? Round Number
2469 - 38% Retracement of rally from Feb 2016 Low to $SPX High

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

Gold Miners (GDX) often lead Gold (GLD)

148 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

150 Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

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