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- Last Update: 11 July 2018, 20:27
Support / Resistance Lines
RANGE RESOURCES has been, until recently, the red headed stepchild of its peers. RRC has underperformed the group most of the year, although oil has rebounded to over $50/bbl. Range is weighted heavily toward natural gas production, so there is some correlation there.
There are four charts here looking at Range's price action, suggesting Aug and Sept 2017 may have been the bottom for this stock. the daily and weekly chart shows what looks like capitulation as volume has risen into the base that has formed. Two questions I am asking these charts to answer:
1) Have the sellers been washed out? ..and...
2) Will higher oil and gas prices, coupled with sector rotation driven by rising interest rates and improving economic activity drive investor demand and strong earnings for this oil and gas driller?
Either way, we will find out.... so without further ado, on with the analysis and updates!
2017-10-6 Update: RRC failed to break resistance near 21. However, higher highs and higher lows continue.
19.88-20.54/.65 has been a battle ground for RRC the last 4 days, immediately following very strong price action Monday Oct 2 when the stock moved upward more than 6% from the open.
Still looking for the Accumulation/Depreciation line to make new highs, breaking the existing resistance line.
It is worth noting that this past week, most days there is selling pressure throughout the day, but the majority of the volume occurs in the last 10 minutes of trading each day, and it seems to be buyers overwhelming sellers in that period. See 10-minute chart below.
2017-10-7 Update: As mentioned in yesterday's update, there is a notable pattern showing up in this last week's 10-minute chart below (#015) regarding the behavior of buyers and sellers. A battleground has formed between 19.90 and 20.54. Buyers have been showing up in ranks in the last 10 minutes of trading everyday, providing significant into the close with the exception of Thursday 10/5. Sellers won that fight. See 10-min chart below.
This 10-minute chart shows overwhelming buyer support the last 10 minutes of trading each day for the week of 10-2-2017-10-6-2017. 19.90-20.54 is a battleground.
207-10-7 Update: A theStreet.com article alerted me to a large short interest in RRC. This stock seems to get sold all day at low volume, and then at close buyers come in droves. See the A/D line. Hypothesis: short sellers are trying to hold their positions as a short squeeze would cost them dearly. If inevitable sector rotation and economic cycles kick in, the shorts may get pummeled. Hello breakout! Friday was a bad day for RRC; opened gap down on the 10-minute, recovered initially but then faltered. However, buyers held support strong at 19.90 and accumulated aggressively into the close on huge volume. The EMA envelope on the daily chart has turned steadily upward and price is pulling it higher. New highs on the A/D line on the daily chart would be bullish as would the MACD kissing and continuing upward. I think right now it is crucial that price does not drop below 19.25-19.50, preferably holding above 19.90 and making a new high around 21. RSI has room to run, a sell signal on the MACD is what we want to avoid here.
Will this reversal be confirmed with a P and F buy signal on a breakout?
2017-10-24: Bullish reversal was canceled on recent price action. We will see what the market reactions to RRC earnings that came in today after the bell.
2017-10-27: Bullish signal reversed, RRC traded well below the range we have been watching. No breakout this time around. There was however accumulation on Friday. RRC needs to trade above 18.80 before any more talks about a pending breakout resume.
2017-10-7: I am just now applying Stephen Stewart's Price Momentum Map Syntax https://stockcharts.com/public/1130973 to Charts on this list. It makes sense as breakouts show up in momentum stocks often. I am experimenting here with applying his model and 'Rules of Engagement' to analyze a potential bottom setting up for a trend reversal, which would need breakouts above prior resistance with higher highs and higher lows to confirm the new uptrend. I am beginning to love his indicators on a weekly chart. The indicators used in Stewart's Map Syntax are RSI, OBV, relative:$SPX and volume. I am beginning to conclude that his indicators give an earlier signal than using MACD and A/D, and volume confirms. If that theory holds true, then this RRC weekly chart suggests the early September bottom would have been a buy as a dip in the next week or two would be as well. Full Disclosure: The 'ROE' also require RSI near or above 70. However that would be a stretch here as RRC has been in a longtime downtrend. I am looking at the MACD and PPO as substitute indicators marking a bottom and the OBV is breaking out. I know bottom picking is dangerous, and this is not a momentum play a this time. I am accumulating this stock for intermediate term exposure in rotation into energy. So we will experiment here and see how the indicators work out.
2017-10-20: Bottom line is technicals have deteriorated and the week closed right at the 18.80ish level we have flagged as support for the recent trading range. Earnings post 10/24 after the bell.
Earnings Breakout 2017-9-27, Map Syntax Momentum called this 2017-9-11; PnF Triple Top Breakout even earlier on 2017-9-8
2017-10-9 Update: I initiated a position in MU this morning at market open via an OTM Dec 15 $45 2017 call. Underlying closed up 3.25%, the Dec 15 $45 call closed up 30%. While the DJIA, S&P 500and NASDAQ all closed flat, slightly down, Semiconductor companies NVIDIA and MICRON TECHNOLOGIES topped the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) list with the #1 and #2 spots and closed up 2.26% ad 3.25% respectively. If you are not familiar with SCTR Reports, I highly suggest familiarizing yourself with them here: https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:sctr
2017-10-10 Update: Micron continued to defy gravity today as it open gap up, filled the gap, and continued to new highs and our Dec 15 $45 call gained another +30% roughly. HOWEVER, MINUTES AFTER MARKET CLOSE MU ANNOUNCED AN OFFERING OF $1 BILLION NEW SHARES AND AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING MU WAS DOWN 5% IN ATER HOURS TRADING. We will see how this is digested into Friday. This is not good for our new OTM call that was ~+70% in 2 days. This is why profit taking is a good policy. Welcome to the jungle!
2017-10-12 Update: Micron is taking a breather with a close down 2.5%, likely a market reaction to the offering of $1B in new stock two days ago. All things considered, MU is holding up well and was in overbought territory. The upward trend is still in tact.
2017-10-16 Update: MU won't quit! Up almost 3% on the close, it appears a higher low is in place having cleared overbought condition in RSI and maintaining #2 SCTR ranking.
2017-10-24 Update: No doubt momentum has subsided as MU as been moving sideways and consolidating. Next move up or down will determine if something has changed, or if this is just a brief pause.
See Stephen Stewart's Public Chartlist https://stockcharts.com/public/1130973
2017-9-11 Action: Initiate Risk 2017-9-11
2017-10-13 Update: Micron's announcement of $1B new share offering earlier in the week has stifled upward momentum, however MU gained 1.84% for the week. Price is holding up well considering. Shares are clearing overbought signals, fundamentals remain strong at 5-6 times forward earnings.
2017-10-20: MU is having problems breaking 42 in the daily chart, this weekly chart shows continued demand for MU shares.
2017-10-27: Micron definitely lost some momentum this week, however most recent support held. Interestingly, a few analysts raised price targets this week. A break above or below recent range 40 and high of 42 will decide if we continue upward or a correction is in place.
This PnF chart lagged a Triple-Top-Breakout on 2017-9-8. Earlier than both Map Syntax model AND 9/27 Earnings Breakout
2017-10-2: UPSIDE BREAKOUT, SUPPORT HELD OCT 6
2017-10-12 Update: $DDX made a new high this week, bounced off of 9-day EMA today near the middle of 7-week upward price channel.
2017-10-16 Update: $DDX continues to find support @ 9 day EMA, well within upward trending price channel.
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