AlphaDow Model Portfolio: 20% SPY; 10% GLD; 30% Cash; 20% IWO; and 20% ACWX

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Sean Gallagher

Our SWAN Formula (sleep well at night) has been keeping people on the right side of the major trend since 1997.

17 Nov: AlphaGold re-confirms existing buy signal by turning 3 for 3.
14 Nov: AlphaBond has just signalled a new long order for bonds. Use BND, TLT or JNK.

Our model portfolio with corresponding Chart #'s:

1. 20% SPY (and/or 2. HXT.TO)
3. 10% GLD
4. 30% BND or TLT
5. 20% IWO
6. 20% ACWX

Each position is managed by a unique system, namely 1. and 2. AlphaDow, 3. AlphaGold, 4. AlphaBond, 5. ValueMentum and 6. Dual Momentum respectively.

The Call For The Week of Dec 11th:

The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to a 17 year low at 4.1% giving a boost to stocks and keeping bond yields steady ahead of the next Fed rate hike. Gold has taken it on the chin as crypto assets like Bitcoin continue to rise parabolically. Stay invested and wait for opportunities to add new capital to stocks.


AlphaDow is a 100% mechanical Inter-Market Strategy consisting of FIVE systems: 3 trend following, 1 breadth and 1 based on interest rates.

Add up the numbers in the dots in each indicator pane. A BULLISH state first occurs when the count reaches 5 out of 5. Can be used as a 'regime filter' to signal when the odds are in your favour of going long your favourite stocks or as a system to go long SPY or move to cash/bonds (AGG).

Our systems turned:

BULLISH on the U.S. stock market (SPY) on 3rd March '16 (5 out of 5).
BULLISH on HXT.TO as of the 18th May '16 (5th June '15 was BEAR signal).
BULLISH on GLD as of 12th April '17
BULLISH on Bonds as of 14th Nov '17
BULLISH on IWO as of October 29th
BULLISH on ACWX as of June 1st

1. AlphaDow -- Five points possible. 5=BUY 2=SELL. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1):

1. $SPX is trending up (trend is up)
2. Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)
3. $TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)
4. Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive Utilities lead)
5. Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold with less volatility.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

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