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- Last Update: 23 May 2018, 10:57
General Market Commentary
* 20th April ValueMentum moves to cash
AlphaDow is a 100% mechanical Inter-Market Strategy consisting of FIVE systems: 3 trend following, 1 breadth and 1 based on interest rates.
Add up the numbers in the dots in each indicator pane. A BULLISH state first occurs when the count reaches 5 out of 5. Can be used as a 'regime filter' to signal when the odds are in your favour of going long your favourite stocks or as a system to go long SPY or move to cash/bonds (AGG).
The Call For The Week of May 21st:
Steady as she goes for the stock market last week while bonds took a hit as inflation fears pushed interest rates higher. Gold suffered a weekly decline, however, oil reached a seven year high. Our mechanical model remains on a bullish signal and as such we admonish you to ignore the noise and remain committed to stocks.
Send feedback for details on our systems or to receive our ETF Focus List. Our SWAN Formula (sleep well at night) has been keeping people on the right side of the major trend since 1997.
Model portfolio with corresponding Chart #'s:
1. 20% SPY or 2. 20% HXT.TO (for Canadians)
3. 10% GLD
4. 30% cash (allocation for BND and/or TLT).
5. 20% cash (allocated for IWO)
6. 20% ACWX
Each position is managed by a unique system, namely 1. and 2. AlphaDow, 3. AlphaBond, 4. AlphaGold, 5. ValueMentum and 6. Dual Momentum respectively.
Our systems turned BULLISH on the U.S. stock market in May of 2015.
Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1) for each condition:
1. $SPX is above 65wk MA
2. Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)
3. $TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)
4. Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive Utilities lead)
5. Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)
Average holding period 392.3 days. 0.58 round trip trades per year. Longest drawdown duration 50 months vs. 73 for buy & hold.
64% winning trades since 1980. Beats buy and hold with less volatility (0.53 MAR Ratio).
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.
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