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Sean Gallagher Just earned! - Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 23 Followers: 49 Votes: 37 Years Member: 5 Last Update: 17 June 2013, 8:54 Categories: General Market Commentary
Market Timing
Canadian Stocks

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The Call For The Week of June 17th:

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Aggressive traders can go to 100% stocks. Conservative investors should continue to use a 'buy the dips' strategy with up to 60% allocated to stocks.

Volatility was the name of game last week. VIX trading levels in the US hit record levels, amidst the concern about widening daily swings, while a further drop moved the TSX back into negative terrain for the year. Uncertainties about BOJ and especially Fed policy, Chinese growth anxieties and record levels of negative stock market guidance have all helped to dent earlier bullish sentiment. The recent ride has been a jarring one. However, there are reasons, given prospective developments on each front, why some patience could be a more rewarding strategy in many cases, than a dash for the exits.

Conservative and Aggressive should both hold a base portfolio of these long term holds:

Symbol Criteria Close Recommendation $ Gain
SPY 1.0000 165.2200 Buy to Enter Long
EFA 3.0000 61.0200 Buy to Enter Long
IYR 3.0000 70.2100 Buy to Enter Long


Aggressive traders should also hold trading positions in these sector ETFs:

Symbol Criteria Close Recommendation
XLF 27.6854 19.9700 Buy to Enter Long
IYC 18.9967 103.4200 Buy to Enter Long

Less

1. AlphaDow -- When to be in stocks, when to be in cash. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true ( 1):

$SPX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold by 300 %.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

2. AlphaDow Canada -- Dow Theory for Canadians -- send feedback for strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true ( 1):

$TSX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

67% winning trades since 2000 (2/3) beats buy and hold by 87%.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

3. AlphaGold -- 1 chart 3 Indicators for Gold (GLD). BUY when all three are on 1

Bullish when (+1 point for each) all three systems are +1:

US Dollar Index < 12 Week EMA

Dow Jones Industrial Average > 48 Week EMA

Oil > 12wk EMA

Buy Gold (GLD) if score is 3. Sell if less than 2.

14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold's Next Move 2006

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

4. EFA - Both portfolios hold 10-15% positions

5. IYR Both portfolios hold 10-15% positions.

6. SPY Both portfolios hold 10-15% positions

8. ITA - Aggressive Traders hold 15% position

9. XLF - Aggressive traders hold 15% position

9b. XLI - Aggressive Traders hold 15% position

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