SPY - tools for swing trading a cap-weighted index

Steven Berry

The 6 pages of charts below display cumulative Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values

Common Stock Only indicators for the NYSE are calculated using approx.1800 common stocks
which are operating companies within the NYSE Composite Index (funds are excluded)
CSO indicators often present a more accurate internal picture for the NYSE Composite Index
The NYSE All Issues indicators are calculated using all issues traded on the NYSE

The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market

( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )

the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence

The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero

* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum downside risk

Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.

Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power

106 - NASDAQ 100 & McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index & A-D line

4/20

the April price low vs. March low represents a higher low pattern, bullish while it lasts

PMO continues to decline since March 1st, bearish while downtrend continues
PMO remains above its neutral zero line, which is potentially bullish

* McSum achieves a new March/April low this week,
downtrend by the McSum is evidence of internal weakness

107 - S&P 500 & McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index & A-D line

5/22

new A-D line high is bullish for SPX price aciton while its uptrend continues

5/18

* ongoing in April & May is the moderately serious caution for the bullish case
while this specific condition continues:
the McClellan Summation index for the S&P 500 has been
unable to surpass its 'ledge resistance' from the late March period

this technical attribute has high reliability for confirming future bullish price
action once a lasting McSum advance above the March 'ledge resistance' occurs
... it is prudent to be a skeptic

4/20

the April low vs. March low represents a higher low pattern, bullish while it lasts
$2322.25 March low remains below as the un-tested low

SPY $232.81 = 15wsma / bullish while above & bearish if closing below
* Note all of March & April price action resides above the rising 15-week sma,
& the April low resides above it

4/19
PMO today achieves lowest level since mid-November, a bearish event while
PMO continues to decline
* PMO confirms the bearish case only when a lasting hold below its neutral zero line

* McSum prints a new March/April low today approaching its neutral zero line
few McSum improvement days in March/April, which is bearish
the continued downtrend by the McSum represents bearish confirmation while it continues

1/27/17 - negative divergence since the 1st half 2016 by the lower highs pattern of the $BPSPX vs. the SPY price action higher highs pattern is telling
if a technician accepts resolution of such divergences requires patience for the powerful outcome to become evident in the price action
Much is said about interpreting the chart trend of Bullish Percents index in Thomas J. Dorsey's book on Point and Figure charts

* daily chart within the context of $BPSPX:$VXO ratio and the $VXO -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX%3A%24VXO&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p48157210897&a=230553765

108 - S&P 100 & McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index & A-D line

4/19/17 - the April re-test of the March price low has held, bullish while double-bottom continues to hold

PMO today achieves lowest level since mid-November, a bearish event
PMO now approaching zero means future direction requires vigilance

McSum prints a new March/April low today, and resides slightly below its neutral zero line,
which requires high vigilance for the eventual McSum outcome
few McSum improvement days in March/April, which is bearish
the continued downtrend by the McSum represents bearish confirmation while it continues

** Advance-Decline line displays lower highs & lower lows since March 1st, potentially
intermediate-term bearish for $OEX only while this chart pattern continues

RSP:SPY ratio -

This technical deserves a great deal of day to day vigilance, because it has high reliability
in the tool set of caution flags when price action is NOT being supported by
the direction of this internal.
The ratio reflects the degree of wide or narrow directional participation
by the 500 components of the S&P 500 capitalization-weighted index

Art Hill has written at StockCharts extensively over the years about the correct interpretation method for the daily RSP:SPY ratio

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44383815563&a=401635439

1. the June/Oct 2016 RSP:SPY ratio's double-bottom structure is important for context, and reminds us to watch the ratio's October 2016 daily close low, if tested from above in 2017/2018

2. the ratio's April 2016 decline low merits our attention

3. chart showing S&P 500 new highs - new lows % sharpens the narrowing or widening measurement of actual participation by the 500 symbols

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=SPY&c=breadth_new_highs_lows_avg_d

109 - S&P 400 Mid-Cap & McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index & A-D line

4/21 - the McSum April high represents a failure to surpass the McSum 'ledge resistance' region from mid-March.
Be skeptical of any future McSum advance actually having staying power
until the McSum advance surpasses & holds above its ledge resistance

PMO continues to hover near its neutral zero line,
which needs to change if price action is to have a lasting direction

110 - S&P 600 Small-Cap & McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index & A-D line

4/18/17 -11 consecutive days below the 50-day sma, bearish

PMO remains slightly below its zero line since mid-March, which represents
bearish confirmation while below the zero line
* PMO is located near the mid-November levels since mid-January, which is
potentially bearish that PMO bounces have not overtaken higher levels

4/11/17 - the McSum April high, so far, represents a failure to surpass the McSum zero line, bearish confirmation
Vigilance is required for the eventual zero line outcome

Few McSum improvement days in all of March/April, which is bearish

McSum note for future reference in the weeks ahead: Located at even higher McSum levels and above the McSum zero line
is the important potential horizontal resistance region located at the February McSum turn back up level
Be skeptical of any future McSum advance actually having staying power
until the McSum advance surpasses & holds above its important potential resistance level

111 - DJIA with McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index & A-D line

4/19 - index component, IBM, held the $159.84 monthly horizontal support today
for test #1 from above by the post-earnings release price decline

AAPL today is testing $141.05 horizontal support, the 20-day support level
$140.06 = 40-day horizontal support level, not yet re-tested in recent days

4/18/17 - day #4 closing below the 50-day sma, bearish

PMO today achieves lowest level since mid-November, a bearish event
PMO remains slightly above its zero line, bearish confirmation only when below the zero line

4/13/17 - McSum prints a new December through April low today, bearish confirmation event
few McSum improvement days in March/April, which is bearish
the continued downtrend by the McSum represents bearish confirmation while it continues

112 - Wilshire 5000 index

4/19 - bear kiss of the 50-day sma at today's high



4/18/17 - day #4 closing below the 50-day sma, bearish



PMO today achieves lowest level since mid-November, a bearish event

PMO remains slightly above its zero line, bearish confirmation occurs

only when holding below the zero line

121 - XLK Technology

4/18/17 - day #7 that daily closes remain below the 21-day sma,
which is near-term bearish

50-day sma support remains unbroken for the second consecutive daily close
PMO today achieves lowest level since mid-December, a bearish downtrend continues for the PMO

PMO remains above its zero line, bearish confirmation occurs
only when holding below the zero line

122 - XLF Financial

10/3

alert: it is timely & prudent now to compare the 15-year chart history of the daily/weekly BB width
* pros & cons of this current BB expansion must be respected

9/19

PMO zero line and signal line crossover vigilance in the future is a must,
upside follow through by price action depends on the future PMO configuration steadily improving

5/17
today's re-test of $____ prior price low = the must hold below level,
for more decline potential

4/14

day #3 the lower BB was tested from above & bounced
day #3 the $___ March 27th pullback price low was re-tested,

intermediate-term bearish for US equities only when XLF price actually remains below the March low
ongoing bearish evidence for XLF is the XLF to SPY
ratio declining to new multi-month low, now at the early November levels

daily PMO resides below its zero line since late March, and continues to even lower levels which is bearish confirmation while the decline continues

PMO on 4/13 slightly violated the June/July 2016 PMO lows, & a future lasting hold below these prior lows will represent an important bearish confirmation

4/10/17 - Be objective, and act cautiously about believing in any high probability for a future price advance to the upside UNLESS the %b's clearly negate the current lower highs pattern over recent weeks by actually closing some future day in close proximity to the %b 1.0 line
1/26/17 - it is important bearish evidence that XLF today achieves a new record price high on lower momentum

123 - XLV Health Care

4/18/17 - day #1 price failed to hold the 50-day sma support, bearish only while holding below the 50-day

the daily PMO continues to decline to lower levels since mid-March, and
remains above its neutral zero line

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