SPY - tools for swing trading a cap-weighted index

Steven Berry

The 6 pages of charts below display cumulative Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values

Common Stock Only indicators for the NYSE are calculated using approx.1800 common stocks
which are operating companies within the NYSE Composite Index (funds are excluded)
CSO indicators often present a more accurate internal picture for the NYSE Composite Index
The NYSE All Issues indicators are calculated using all issues traded on the NYSE

The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market

( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )

the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence

The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero

* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum downside risk

Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.

Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power

906 - daily AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, JNJ w/ their 15,3 Bollinger Bands for 1 year

10/30
36.4% of the total 0.96% SPY price gain as of Oct 20 since the Oct 5th close by the top 25 % weighted stocks
in the S&P 500 index ... though a greater % portion
of the overall index % gain at Oct 27 since October 5 are explained by the
same 25 stocks ... the top 10 are the largest portion of this gain by the 25

Column headings for data set below:
index weighting factor -
% change since Oct. 5th close (Dividend Adjusted) -
Col G times Col H in % = the change measure of the Weighted Impact on SPY price since Oct 5

0.0364 0.55 0.02002
0.0274 3.74 0.102476
0.0187 2.18 0.040766
0.0177 0.21 0.003717
0.0172 6.91 0.118852
0.0164 1.03 0.016892
0.0159 1.33 0.021147
0.0158 2.49 0.039342
0.0135 2.02 0.02727
0.0134 1.88 0.025192
0.0120 3.98 0.04776
0.0111 -0.85 -0.009435
0.0101 -3.39 -0.034239
0.0101 0.05 0.000505
0.0098 -8.92 -0.087416
0.0098 1.17 0.011466
0.0093 -2.89 -0.026877
0.0091 0.71 0.006461
0.0090 4.85 0.04365
0.0090 -2.89 -0.02601
0.0089 1.23 0.010947
0.0087 -1.62 -0.014094
0.0086 2.28 0.019608
0.0080 1.89 0.01512
0.0079 -2.95 -0.023305
AAPL
MSFT
FB
AMZN
JNJ
BRK/B
XOM
JPM
GOOGL
GOOG
BAC
WFC
PG
CVX
T
PFE
GE
VZ
UNH
C
V
HD
INTC
KO
CMCSA

Total

907 - daily BRK/B, JPM, XOM, GOOGL, GOOG w/ their 15,3 Bollinger Bands for 1 year

911 - GM weekly - new record highs in October 2017 with new record levels for some indicators

10/24

it is clearly a high probability in the near term or intermediate term
for at least a small % decline by the GM price action from this month's
record high

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