Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin

21Feb18 - Fed minutes spark fade, kill rally. Updated Charts 0100 to 0300 and USA ETFs (1000 to 1999).
20Feb18 - Recovery stalling ... Updated International ETFs (2000 to 2999), Leveraged ETFs (3000 to 3999), and Metals, Oil and Gas, Bonds, and Innovation (4000 to 4999).
16Feb18 - See Charts 0000 and 0001- Recovery appears to have some strength but I'm not convinced we are entirely out of the woods.
14Feb18 - Possible Recovery beginning. Process likely to be slow and uncertain.
13Feb18 - Market looks Less Bearish which is encouraging.

08Feb18 - The Charts are the most Bearish they have been in quite some time. In many cases support levels have been penetrated as if they don't exist.

19Jan18 - Hyperbolic: Well Over Top of 2 Year Trend Channel- See Chart 0320

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Road to a BUY: Bear->Less Bearish->Higher/Up->Rising->Strong->Turning Up->Bull.

Road to a SELL: Bull->Less Bullish->Lower/Down->Falling->Weak->Turning Down->Bear.

Always err on the side of caution. Live to fight another day!
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Table of Contents:

Chart 0000 ETF Rating Summary
Chart 0001 Market Commentary
Chart 0002 Market Strength Summary
Chart 0003 Rating Methodology
Charts 0100 to 0999 US Sectors, Indexes, and Market Strength
Charts 1000 to 1999: USA ETFs
Charts 2000 to 2999: International ETFs
Charts 3000 to 3999: Leveraged ETFs
Charts 4000 to 4999: Metals, Oil and Gas, Bonds, and Innovation

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Market Strength Summary (Chart 0002) of Charts 0500 to 0620 on 23Feb18: Relatively Bullish

Monthly (LONG TERM): February 2018- Chart 0300: Monthly Trend Less Bullish
Weekly (MEDIUM TERM): 23Feb18 - Chart 0305: Weekly Trend Slightly Less Bullish
Daily (SHORT TERM): 23Feb18 - Chart 0000: Rating Summary as of 22Feb18: Bull/Turning Up (15), Neutral (127), and Bear/Turning Down (8)

0305 - S&P 500 ($SPX) MEDIUM TERM- Lower- Neutral (0) 23Feb18

0305 - This (MEDIUM TERM (Weekly)) chart of the S&P 500 shows how it has performed for the last 3 years

23Feb18 - Weekly Less Bullish: 2 Plus, 2 Neutral, 1 Minus

(1) Neutral: RSI is at a Top
(2) Minus: MACD, PPO,TSI, and TRIX crossed Bearish
(3) Plus: AROON says Buyers edge out Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic falling from Overbought, ULT falling
(5) Plus: The 'LONG TERM' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)

ADX(14) and VTX(14) signal weaker Trend


16Feb18 - Weekly Slightly Less Bullish: 2 Plus, 2 Neutral, 1 Minus

(1) Neutral: RSI may be at a Top
(2) Minus: MACD, PPO,TSI, and TRIX crossing Bearish
(3) Plus: AROON says Buyers edge out Sellers
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastic falling from Overbought, ULT falling
(5) Plus: The 'LONG TERM' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)

ADX(14) and VTX(14) signal weakening Trend


09Feb18 - Weekly Less Bullish: 4 Plus, 1 Neutral, 0 Minus

(1) Neutral: RSI may be at a Top
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO,TSI, and TRIX are Bullish
(3) Plus: AROON says Buyers edge out Sellers
(4) Plus: Full Stochastic Overbought, ULT over 70
(5) Plus: The 'LONG TERM' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA)

ADX(14) and VTX(14) signal Up Trend


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RSI Green Arrow Rules:
Line rises from below 30 to above 30 => Green Arrow up
Line rises from below 50 to above 50 => Green Arrow up

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RSI Red Arrow Rules:
Line drops from above 70 to below 70 => Red Arrow Down
Line drops from above 50 to below 50 => Red Arrow down

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Thanks very much for your Support! Email if you have a question, comment, or suggestion.

0310 - S&P 500 ($SPX) VERY SHORT TERM- Flat- Neutral (0) 23Feb18

0310 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily

23Feb18 - Flat: 1 Plus, 3 Neutral, 0 Minus

(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Flat
(2) Neutral: Slow STO Flat
(3) Plus: On Balance Volume Rising
(4) Neutral: Medium Term Trend Neutral (EMA 13 Day parallel to EMA 34 Day)

ADX(7): Weaker SHORT TERM Trend,
ADX(14): Weaker MEDIUM TERM Trend
VTX: SHORT TERM Trend: Weak Bear


16Feb18 - Improving: 2 Plus, 1 Neutral, 1 Minus

(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) improving
(2) Plus: Slow STO rising from Oversold
(3) Plus: On Balance Volume Rising
(4) Minus: Medium Term Trend Bullish (EMA 13 Day under EMA 34 Day)

ADX(7): Weaker SHORT TERM Trend,
ADX(14): Weaker MEDIUM TERM Trend
VTX: SHORT TERM Trend: Bearish


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When the EMA 13 Day (Green line) is above the EMA 34 Day (Red line), the Medium Term direction of the market is Up.
For Medium Term investing the EMA 13 Day vs. the EMA 34 Day shows when the overall market is trending up and it is probably OK to stay invested.

When the Medium Term of the market is Up, I use the MACD and the Stochastics for Buy and Sell signals.
When the Medium Term of the market is Down, I'm on the sidelines!

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RSI Green Arrow Rules:
Line rises from below 30 to above 30 => Green Arrow up
Line rises from below 50 to above 50 => Green Arrow up

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RSI Red Arrow Rules:
Line drops from above 70 to below 70 => Red Arrow Down
Line drops from above 50 to below 50 => Red Arrow down

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Thanks very much for your Support! Email if you have a question, comment, or suggestion.

0315 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- Flat- Neutral (0) 23Feb18

0315 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Daily- SHORT TERM (Daily)

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RSI Green Arrow Rules:
Line rises from below 30 to above 30 => Green Arrow up
Line rises from below 50 to above 50 => Green Arrow up

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RSI Red Arrow Rules:
Line drops from above 70 to below 70 => Red Arrow Down
Line drops from above 50 to below 50 => Red Arrow down

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Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much for your Support! Email if you have a question, comment, or suggestion.

0320 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM-Within 2 Year Trend Channel- 23Feb18

0320 - Two year Daily Chart of the S&P 500 (Proxy for the market)

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RSI Green Arrow Rules:
Line rises from below 30 to above 30 => Green Arrow up
Line rises from below 50 to above 50 => Green Arrow up

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RSI Red Arrow Rules:
Line drops from above 70 to below 70 => Red Arrow Down
Line drops from above 50 to below 50 => Red Arrow down

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Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much for your Support! Email if you have a question, comment, or suggestion.

0325 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- 65 Day EMA: Neutral- 23Feb18

0335 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Daily- Elder Impulse System

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RSI Green Arrow Rules:
Line rises from below 30 to above 30 => Green Arrow up
Line rises from below 50 to above 50 => Green Arrow up

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RSI Red Arrow Rules:
Line drops from above 70 to below 70 => Red Arrow Down
Line drops from above 50 to below 50 => Red Arrow down

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0330 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- From 1984- 200 Day Moving Ave. February 2018

0330 - S&P 500 ($SPX) SHORT TERM- From 1984 to Present-

0335 - S&P 500 ($SPX) INTRADAY- Over CHANDLR: Bullish- 23Feb18

0335 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

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FYI: When the price is above the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) and the CHANDLR is rising, it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when the price is under the CHANDLR and the CHANDLR is falling, it suggests a Downtrend.

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0345 - S&P 500 ($SPX) LONG TERM (Monthly) MA 50 vs MA 200- Bull (4) February 2018

0345 - S&P 500 Large Caps Index ($SPX) - 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200

0350 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Years Monthly- PMO, MACD, Wm%R => Bullish (4) February 2018

0350 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Yrs Monthly-

17Mar17 - The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has turned Bullish and is no longer signaling a Long Term Bear Market.

29Jan16 - CAUTION: The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has been a reliable guide to Long Term market direction and it is presently signaling that a Long Term decline is underway.

0355 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Years Quarterly- Bullish (4) February 2018

0355 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) 30 Years Quarterly-

07Jul17 - Add another quarter: The S&P 500 has gone up for 7 consecutive quarters

17Mar17 - The S&P 500 has gone up for 6 consecutive quarters

04Mar16 - EXERCISE CAUTION: The current S&P 500 chart looks very much like how it looked leading up to Bear Markets of 2000 and 2008.

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