Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin

16Feb18 - See Charts 0000 and 0001- Recovery appears to have some strength but I'm not convinced we are entirely out of the woods.
14Feb18 - Possible Recovery beginning. Process likely to be slow and uncertain. Updated Sector Charts 0100 to 0500 and Leveraged ETFs (3000 to 3999)
13Feb18 - Market looks Less Bearish which is encouraging. Updated USA ETFs (1000 to 1999)
12Feb18 - Updated International ETFs (2000 to 2999) and Metals, Oil and Gas, Bonds, and Innovation (4000 to 4999)
08Feb18 - The Charts are the most Bearish they have been in quite some time. In many cases support levels have been penetrated as if they don't exist.

19Jan18 - Hyperbolic: Well Over Top of 2 Year Trend Channel- See Chart 0320

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Road to a BUY: Bear->Less Bearish->Higher/Up->Rising->Strong->Turning Up->Bull.

Road to a SELL: Bull->Less Bullish->Lower/Down->Falling->Weak->Turning Down->Bear.

Always err on the side of caution. Live to fight another day!
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Table of Contents:
Chart 0000 ETF Rating Summary
Chart 0001 Market Commentary
Chart 0002 Market Strength Summary
Chart 0003 Rating Methodology
Charts 0100 to 0999 US Sectors, Indexes, and Market Strength
Charts 1000 to 1999: USA ETFs
Charts 2000 to 2999: International ETFs
Charts 3000 to 3999: Leveraged ETFs
Charts 4000 to 4999: Metals, Oil and Gas, Bonds, and Innovation

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Market Strength (Charts 0500 to 0620) as of 16Feb18: Bullish Recovery

Monthly (LONG TERM): February 2018- Chart 0300: Monthly Trend Less Bullish
Weekly (MEDIUM TERM): 16Feb18 - Chart 0305: Weekly Trend Slightly Less Bullish
Daily (SHORT TERM): 15Feb18 - Chart 0000: Rating Summary as of 15Feb18: Bull/Turning Up (78), Neutral (60), and Bear/Turning Down (12)

0415 - Oil & Gas - West Texas Crude Oil ($WTIC) 20 Year Quarterly- Rising- Neutral (0) February 2018

0415 - Oil & Gas - West Texas Crude Oil ($WTIC) 20 Year Quarterly

0475 - S&P 500 ($SPX) LONG TERM- Set & Forget (Well Almost) EMA(13,34) => BUY- February 2018

0475 - S&P 500 ($SPX) - Set and Forget (Almost) Investment Plan

14Feb17 - Buy signal in place

08Jul16 - No Buy signal yet but slowly improving picture

0480 - USA - Dow Industrial Average ($INDU) MEDIUM TERM- Lower- Neutral (0) 16Feb18

0480 - USA - Dow Industrial Average ($INDU) 2 Years Weekly-

0485 - Financials (XLF) MEDIUM TERM- Buy-Sell-Hold Strategy- EMA(13,34): Bullish- 16Feb18

0485 - Financial Sector (XLF) 13 Yrs Wkly- Simple Buy-Sell-Hold Strategy-

0490 - S&P 500, Mid Caps, Small Caps, Transports ==> Rising- 16Feb18

0490 - Transports, Mid Caps, Small Caps, vs S&P 500- 30 Days 2 Hours-

07Jul17 - The Transports are diverging from the Large Caps, the Mid Caps, and the Small Caps.

14Mar17 - The Large caps (the S&P 500) are diverging from the Mid Caps, Small Caps, and the Transports.

06Jan17 - S&P 500 and Transports are diverging.

22Jul16 - Transports and Small Caps are about in line with the S&P 500.

0500 - Weekly Volatility ($VIX) MEDIUM TERM: Above Average: Bearish- 16Feb18

0500 - Weekly Volatility Index ($VIX)- 3 Yrs Weekly-

0510 - Volatility ($VIX) INTRADAY: Down ==> Stocks Up- 16Feb18

0510- Intraday Volatility Index ($VIX) 1 Month 1 Hour


Thanks very much for your continued Support!

0520 - % of NYSE Stocks > 50 Day MA- SHORT TERM- 16.97 to 39.07 Rising- 16Feb18

0520 - % of NYSE Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average-
This indicator registers the percentage of NYSE Stocks that are currently above their 50 Day Moving Average.


A drop well below 40% usually marks Bottoms but it can also be a sign of a more serious market pullback. By contrast a very high reading can be a sign of a market top.

From Michael:
Great charts! I enjoy them very much, thank you.

Thanks for your support!

0530 - % of S&P 500 Stocks > 50 Day MA- MEDIUM TERM: 18.20 to 48.00 Strong Rise 16Feb18

0530 - % of S&P 500 Stocks above their 50 Day Moving Average



0540 - SPX Vol. Momentum Osc. (!ITVMSPX) MEDIUM TERM: -41.35 to 13.15 Much Higher- 16Feb18

0540 - S&P 500 Volume Momentum Oscillator (!ITVMSPX) 3 Yrs Weekly

Note: Volume momentum swings usually persist for weeks.

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