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Market Breadth Analysis
Market commentary is provided in the first chart and a summary of recent MTI signals can be found in the second chart. The charts that follow are for each of the individual indicators that make up the Composite.
History of Composite signals
42% - 2% + 3.5% + 8% - 1.1% + 5.8% + 34% +3.1% = 119%
Breadth Indicator: Measures the performance of the Value Line Index relative to the S&P 500.
Developed by the late, great Marty Zweig: A buy signal is generated when the index rises at least four percent from a previous value. A sell signal is generated when the index falls at least four percent. For example, a buy signal would be generated if the weekly close of the Value Line rose from 200 to 208 (a four percent rise). If the index subsequently rallied to 250 and then dropped below 240 (a four percent drop), a sell signal would be generated.
Breadth Indicator: Measures the percentage of stocks above their 20-day mov avg
12/15/2016 -- Ever since the bottom in February each rally in stocks has witnessed the % of stocks above the 20-day mov avg climb above 65 -- a bullish configuration. This indicates strong breadth and, according to how I use this indicator, a sell signal is not possible until there's a negative divergence such that this indicator peaks below 65.
Breadth Indicator: Measures the percentage of stocks above their 50 day mov avg.
12/14/2016 -- The indicator has crossed above 80% (green horizontal line). The indicates a very strong rally and suggests any correction will likely be minor and eventually lead to higher prices.
Sentiment Indicator: This index tracks the National Association of Active Investment Manager (NAAIM) percentage allocation to equities.
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