The Big Picture -- The Big Churn 1997-2021 (Est. 30 August, Earth Year 002,001)

Peter Robinson

(2/21 -- 0707 EST) -- Rolling over? [new first chart]

(2/19) -- Shooting Star-ish doji is a top at MA(50) and MA(20)?
(2/15) -- Volume withering.
(2/14) -- MA(50) now resistance -- CPI up inflation market down?
(2/9 -- 1057 EST) -- Real Options Week bottom forming? Lots of positive divergences forming IMO.
The week before Options Week has been the 'Real' options week for years IMO.
(2/8) -- MA(100) support to hold?
(2/7) -- MA(50) now resistance?
(2/2) -- The dam FINALLY breaks!

(1/29) -- EOM window dressing WAY outside of upper BB(409)!
(1/24) -- Most charts are looking top-ish IMO. Another false alarm?
(1/23) -- NYSE Seismometer suggests recent run up is losing steam IMO. [Bottom p. 2]
(1/16/18) -- Time for a pause at BB(409)?

(12/18/17) -- BB(322) and BB(409) to limit upside for Santa Rally?
(11/28) -- Classic short squeeze into the close IMO.
Or is a Santa Rally building up a head of steam?
(11/13) -- SLOITC series back and under construction. [middle p. 3]
(8/30) -- Up Up and Away to SPX 5000? A post-Harvey infrastructure-building rally could really take off here IMO.
(1/24/17) -- 'Trump Traction' to SPX 5000? [SPX monthly near bottom p. 1]

(12/6/16) -- Santa Rally is back on? Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
(2/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?

(2/18/15) -- June 2012 target of SPX 2100 reached. [middle p. 1]
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top at SPX 2100?


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SLOITC A12.11 -- SPY - Daily Line 2012-2018 A/D OBV ETC 14 NOV 2017

SLOITC A12.17 -- SPY - 60 min A/D OBV ETC

SLOITC A12.183 SPY 2007 CLOSE UP - 60 min Line (thin), 700

SLOITC A12.185 SPY 2011 CLOSE UP - 60 min Line (thin), 700

SLOITC A12.19 -- SPY - 60 min 2009 to present

SLOITC A12.195 -- 2011/12 SPY - 60 min Line (thin), 700

SLOITC A12.196 -- SPY - 60 min -- SLOITC Close-up 2012 2012

SLOITC A12.198 -- SPY - 1 hour -- Nov. 2012 close up 14 JUNE 2013

SLOITC A12.23 -- SPY - 30 min Line (thin), 700

(8/29/06 -- Rev. 8/19/11) -- 'The Spy Left Out In The Cold' -- ('SLOITC').

BEYOND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE



Many authors here have excellent analysis of support and resistance levels.

Knowing WHERE price may turn is crucial indeed.

It is the goal here to move beyond that knowledge to know WHY price turns at those levels.

What are the forces driving the quick moves toward and away from support and resistance levels?



FEAR AND BREADTH !



(6/7/06) -- The Accumulation/Distribution and On Balance Volume lines track the intra-day volume patterns.

The NAADV/NADEC line tracks the Nasdaq advance/decline ratio.

The four other lines are smoothed ratios which invert the following indicators to mimic market action:

-- two breadth indicators (TRIN and TRINQ); and

-- two fear indicators (VIX and CPC).



To my eyes, there are clear moments in the charts below when price and the fear/breadth lines diverge markedly.

These times are pegged 'The SPY Left Out in the Cold' or 'SLOITC' for short.

Depending on the time frame in which one trades, these divergences can IMO be used to anticipate possible market turning points.

SLOITC A12.24 -- SPY - 15 min A/D, OBV, TRINQ

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