The Big Picture -- The Big Churn 1997-2021 (Est. 30 August, Earth Year 002,001)

Peter Robinson

(12/4 -- 1043 EST) -- Still looking top-ish IMO.

(11/30) -- Another short squeeze to end the month. Santa Rally to continue or 'Look Out Below?'
(11/28) -- Classic short squeeze into the close IMO.
Ditto -- End-of-month window dressing rolling over?
Or is a Santa Rally building up a head of steam?
(11/19) -- MA(20) support to hold?
(11/13) -- SLOITC series back and under construction. [middle p. 3]
(11/2) -- Low volume bounce off MA(20).

(8/30) -- Up Up and Away to SPX 5000? A post-Harvey infrastructure-building rally could really take off here IMO.
(5/18) -- 'Look Out Above?' -- Ready for an Options Week short squeeze into tomorrow's weekly close?
(4/2) -- Trump Infrastructure Rally? Another push up through MA(20) and we are off to the races to new highs?
(1/24/17) -- 'Trump Traction' to SPX 5000? [SPX monthly near bottom p. 1]

(12/19/16) -- BB(322) and BB(409) to define the trading range until the end of the year, on low volume?
(12/6) -- Santa Rally is back on? Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
(6/11) -- A Rising Tide Floats All Vessels -- NYSE and NYHL continue to be strong. [pp. 3-4] -- DAX too. [p. 5]
(5/5) -- EMA(50) and EMA(150) Whipsaw signals continue. [middle p. 3]
(2/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?
(2/9) -- Election year cycle now kicking into gear at the green median line? [bottom p. 1]
(1/25/16) -- Giant multiple head-and-shoulders in process back down to SPX 800 in Earth Year 002,023?

(2/18/15) -- June 2012 target of SPX 2100 reached. [middle p. 1]
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top at SPX 2100?


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SLOITC A12.198 -- SPY - 1 hour -- Nov. 2012 close up 14 JUNE 2013

SLOITC A12.23 -- SPY - 30 min Line (thin), 700

(8/29/06 -- Rev. 8/19/11) -- 'The Spy Left Out In The Cold' -- ('SLOITC').

BEYOND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE



Many authors here have excellent analysis of support and resistance levels.

Knowing WHERE price may turn is crucial indeed.

It is the goal here to move beyond that knowledge to know WHY price turns at those levels.

What are the forces driving the quick moves toward and away from support and resistance levels?



FEAR AND BREADTH !



(6/7/06) -- The Accumulation/Distribution and On Balance Volume lines track the intra-day volume patterns.

The NAADV/NADEC line tracks the Nasdaq advance/decline ratio.

The four other lines are smoothed ratios which invert the following indicators to mimic market action:

-- two breadth indicators (TRIN and TRINQ); and

-- two fear indicators (VIX and CPC).



To my eyes, there are clear moments in the charts below when price and the fear/breadth lines diverge markedly.

These times are pegged 'The SPY Left Out in the Cold' or 'SLOITC' for short.

Depending on the time frame in which one trades, these divergences can IMO be used to anticipate possible market turning points.

SLOITC A12.24 -- SPY - 15 min A/D, OBV, TRINQ

SLOITC A12.27 -- SPY - 5 min A/D OBV ETC

SLOITC A12.29 -- SPY - 1 min Line (thin), 700

SLOITC A12.31 -- SPY - 1 min Line (thin), 700

ZZ8.33 -- $DAX - Daily -- 1996 to present

ZZ8.35 -- $DAX - Daily Solid Line (thin), 1024

ZZ9.3 -- A1.01.3 -- $SPX - Monthly 2000 top

ZZ9.31 -- B174.91 -- Anatomy of a Top (2000-2001) -- SPY - Weekly

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