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- Last Update: 15 May 2018, 3:18
Categories:General Market Commentary
Options Week downdraft ready to kick into gear?
(5/10) -- Real Options Week short squeeze top is in?
The week before Options Week has been the 'Real' options week for years IMO.
(5/6) -- Shrinking hourly volume on recent run up.
(5/2) -- The moment of truth at MA(200).
(5/1) -- Congestion at moving averages TBD.
(4/30) -- EWT nested 1-2 count 'Sell In May' top is in?
(4/19) -- Options Week top is in? -- Look Out Below?
(4/12) -- EWT nested 1-2 1-2 setup for severe downdraft?
(3/26) -- MA(200) support to hold?
(2/9) -- Real Options Week bottom forming? Lots of positive divergences forming IMO.
(2/2) -- The dam FINALLY breaks!
(1/29) -- EOM window dressing WAY outside of upper BB(409)!
(1/24) -- Most charts are looking top-ish IMO.
(1/23) -- NYSE Seismometer suggests recent run up is losing steam IMO. [Bottom p. 2]
(1/16/18) -- Time for a pause at BB(409)?
(12/18/17) -- BB(322) and BB(409) to limit upside for Santa Rally?
(11/28) -- Is a Santa Rally building up a head of steam?
(11/13) -- SLOITC series back and under construction. [middle p. 3]
(8/30) -- Up Up and Away to SPX 5000? A post-Harvey infrastructure-building rally could really take off here IMO.
(1/24/17) -- 'Trump Traction' to SPX 5000? [SPX monthly near bottom p. 1]
(12/6/16) -- Santa Rally is back on? Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
(2/16/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?
(2/18/15) -- June 2012 target of SPX 2100 reached. [middle p. 1]
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top at SPX 2100?
***** DISCLAIMER *****
These charts are for entertainment and educational purposes.
Do not rely on them to make investment decisions -- perform your own due diligence.
(8/29/06 -- Rev. 8/19/11) -- 'The Spy Left Out In The Cold' -- ('SLOITC').
BEYOND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Many authors here have excellent analysis of support and resistance levels.
Knowing WHERE price may turn is crucial indeed.
It is the goal here to move beyond that knowledge to know WHY price turns at those levels.
What are the forces driving the quick moves toward and away from support and resistance levels?
FEAR AND BREADTH !
(6/7/06) -- The Accumulation/Distribution and On Balance Volume lines track the intra-day volume patterns.
The NAADV/NADEC line tracks the Nasdaq advance/decline ratio.
The four other lines are smoothed ratios which invert the following indicators to mimic market action:
-- two breadth indicators (TRIN and TRINQ); and
-- two fear indicators (VIX and CPC).
To my eyes, there are clear moments in the charts below when price and the fear/breadth lines diverge markedly.
These times are pegged 'The SPY Left Out in the Cold' or 'SLOITC' for short.
Depending on the time frame in which one trades, these divergences can IMO be used to anticipate possible market turning points.
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