Exceptional Bear - #1 Bear Market Timing - Focus on Volatility whip-saw

Eduardo Mirahyes Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 24 Followers: 30 Votes: 108 Years Member: 1 Last Update: 17 February 2018, 11:36 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Market Timing
ETFs

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Feb 15, 2018 In many charts you will see the Bullish Diag II in green to indicate the beginning of a long rally, just as the reciprocal long ETF shows the Bearish Diag II, the most Bearish of all patterns, nevertheless these pattersn are deceptive since they go to an extreme false breakdown. These confirm and reinforce the long plunge in ALL long equities and the meteoric rise in inverse ETFs

Feb 14, 2018 Time for a bounce in all the LONG stocks and ETFs just when so many wishy-washy bulls jumped the fence into the Bear Camp...New Write-up on Linked-in details the Swing trade of the Decade in Volatility. Copy & paste into your browser https://ebear-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/mirahyes_ebear_onmicrosoft_com/EXh26G8cNc5Pi5O0zi8EnwoBSq3P-WG6w0b4XCj8NJ1y2g?e=xD8qBB fill the page by clicking on magnifying glass at bottom of the page.....or log into LinkedIn or Twitter

Jan 30, 2018 For the post on LinkedIn and Twitter copy and past this link on your browser
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6364072920385486848

Jan 29, 2018 Followers picked off by hacking In addition to stealing votes hacker Damon Kalahele of 180, Elm Ct, Sunnyvale is back to stealing followers, as happened before one follower related she has stopped following without her knowledge, and she does not know how it happened, so much for Stockcharts non-existent security.

Jan 11, 2018 VOLATILITY, a ROARING BULL Market - Bullish Diag IIs of the Third wave are the most Bullish See UVXY 15 min fractals as an undeniable forecast of the Volatility spike and by inference, the CRASH dead ahead.

Jan 11, 2018 ALTHOUGH THE CHARTS ARE UPDATED DAILY A HACK PREVENTS ME OFTEN FROM SENDING NOTICE DUE TO HACKING THAT STATES THEY HAVE NOT BEEN UPDATED, votes continue to be stolen daily.

Nov 2, 2017 Do you sell those beautiful graphs or use them for real trading/investing?
Both, they are available by subscription with a 30

Less

$ a INDU - The Long New-Wave Elliott Channel3 since 1900

October 30, 2017 Here you see most of the critical annotations , however notice the Diag II that kicked off the 1929 Crash is conspicuously missing, each time I adjust the chart something ELSE goes missing during the saving process, to indicate the lacking Security at Stockcharts that the hacking occurs from inside the program
October 31, 2017 Above you see there remains a small segment of the price territory remaining to complete the overlap of the upper channel boundary ~2000-3000 Dow points

$ aa INDU - 1929 overthrow Supercycle Wave (II)

Jan 15, 2018 On the long, Map of the Market by Magnitude above, notice the aqua circle at the top right, shows the short distance between the current Dow price, and the min upside required to breach the upper parallel, just as in 1929, before a CRASH can occur. Most likely first a false breakdown, as we had in BREXIT, should allow us to sell shorts and re-position at a more advantageous level before the upper parallel is breached. We are at that juncture NOW.

Jan 9, 2018 For the Crash to occur, the upper parallel must be breached a second time, after the first in 2000, just as in 1929, after the first in 1906. However, a fractal of the larger a-b-(a); a-b-(b) pattern likely pulls back first, in an a false breakdown wave a, before continuing higher.
October 29, 2017 This is our copyrighted Map of the Market by Magnitude since 1900, Notice there are no 5th waves, each 5th ascends degree to the next higher 3rd wave, Above, you see Cycle Wave V , becomes Supercycle (III), likewise Supercycle (V) is replaced by Grand Supercycle [III].
October 31, 2017 Above you see there remains a small segment of the price territory remaining to complete the overlap of the upper channel boundary ~3000 Dow points

ALWAYS hacked, here is a link to how it should look. Copy & paste on your browser. https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive/share/fJMG7elKbDrdljx4EyYTZY9jmiQEuA2rd3qYWwaJ8om
It shows Elliott's theoretical Channel, Supercycle Waves (I)-(IV) in green, Cycle Waves I-IV in aqua, Primary Waves 1-4 in lime, and intermediate waves i-iv in avocado. As you see in the lower degree channels between 1956 - 1968, after each double grazing of the upper channel, the market value pendulum swiftly swings to the lower extreme of its value Channel. Wha

$ aa INDU - The Long, New-Wave Elliott Count 1980 to present

Feb 9, 2018 On the Map of the Market by Magnitude 1980-2018 magnification above, notice the aqua circle at the top right, shows the a-b reversal in process. From here the price territory must penetrate the upper channel boundary before the Crash can occur

$ aa S&P 500 30-min

Jan 24, 2018 Non confirmation of SPX & SVXY speaks volumes of the swing trading Opportunity here ( false breakout in SPX must reverse violently)

NOV 2 Annotations disappear when SAVED https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive/share/Deavq1GHd2v10hHzd0aMMcM8TTIoNZ0e7drhweB4CkJ
Sept 16 The dark purple a-b reversal in the 30-min above, and 2-hour chart below correspond to the same pullback required to complete wave iv of the Diag >, to overlap wave i & confirm the dramatic reversal upon completion of the red, bearish, Diag II . From there, another a-b reverses from Bear Market Rally to Bear Market Free-fall.

Sept 12 The analogous SVXY below shows a likely 10% higher high before reversal
Sept 3 This 30-min S&P Chart is in the final stages of a lower degree fractal bounce into a reversal, it echoes the larger structure in the S&P since the 2000 Bull Market Top. To complete the Diag > , the price must first drop to the dotted line, to overlap wave (i) followed by a reversal to at least the area of 2490. Afterwards, a smaller a-b is all that's required to initiate the Crash.
Aug 17 This 30-min S&P Chart depicts two lower degree fractals of the larger Bear Market pattern seen in the Monthly chart since 2000, when the Bear Market began. (view the entire history in the 5th chart below) The pink (v) wave transcends magnitude to wave iii of the larger Diag II. This fractal forecasts the Crash, with a plunge of at least 32x the magnitude seen here on the monthly Chart below, these are my original discoveries, they are not borrowed from any other charts, as one of my better clients observed, others change their counts after I post mine. This is the true count, and I have an 11 year history with Stockcharts, not one...a hacking scam in 2015 feigned my being BANNED from stockcharts for complaining of the stole

$ ab SVXY S&P analogue 2

$ abUVXY - 2-hr Hacked to stop updating from STOCKCHARTS SERVER fill the chart this is NOT!

Jan 24, 2018 - This chart HACKED from Stockcharts SERVER Note how hacker has changed the dates on the chart to end Jan 22 in the 2-hour chart above, however this corresponds with January 12 above , in a slight of hacking hand...

Oct 13 I purchased a supplemental 50% position in UVXY cost 16.66 Oct 13. 4 times over overbot is the extreme limit of any pattern in Elliott, and swiftly reverses from here

Sept 12 Bottom fishing for UVXY volatility at close yesterday's of 28.21 (intra-day low was 27.86)

Sept 3 The Bullish Diag II in UVXY Volatility is the inverse of the S&P 500 as well as the reciprocal of UVXY, SVXY. As UVXY Spikes, SVXY crashes, In the 2-hour SVXY above, you see that wave iv red is an upside, a-b-c correction, where the Diag > foreshadows a dramatic reversal after the upside to a minimum 86, and likely 88 to fill the gap in the chart, marked by the dotted green line. From there a lower degree, a-b reversal in purple, likely signals the beginning of the Crash of 2017...alternately one more Bullish, Diag II in series is possible
Aug 19 UVXY Volatility and SVXY inverse Volatility are analogous to the $VIX and the reciprocal S&P, a little leverage on UVXY makes it more fun, for those who trade at Interactive Brokers, TVIX replaces of UVXY, and its reciprocal XIV stands in for SVXY
Aug 18 Sell short UVXY limit 41.5 (high was 41.58) cover short limit 29.4

$ VIX - Daily 2

Nov 20 $VIX - NEW Chart - the VIX Daily
Aug 19 History repeats itself nowhere more often than in Market, for trading purposes, the $VIX is the reciprocal of the S&P

Aug 17 The $VIX, volatility index, which moves inversely to the S&P, was up 56% just a week ago, it has retraced most of the upside, leaving a paltry 14% gain. Most likely the remaining 14%, highlighted by the yellow wick in the last candle, will be given back, before the subsequent spike. That is just one example of why Bear Markets must be swing traded, if you are to hold on to your gains. When panic strikes, most investors resort to buying puts to offset portfolio losses... as the S&P Crashes, Wave 5 in the $VIX will Spike through the Roof. The current pattern is identical, but far more severe, than the lead-off from the 2007 low in the aqua inset Unlike wasting assets, the volatility ETFs are far preferable, since they have no time limit, so if you are wrong on the timing, you can always make a comeback on the next move.

$ VIX - Volatility Index Monthly on the Move to signal the SPIKE in Volatility as equities CRASH

Aug 19 History repeats itself nowhere more often than in Market, for trading purposes, the $VIX is the reciprocal of the S&P

Aug 17 The $VIX, volatility index, which moves inversely to the S&P, was up 56% just a week ago, it has retraced most of the upside, leaving a paltry 14% gain. Most likely the remaining 14%, highlighted by the yellow wick in the last candle, will be given back, before the subsequent spike. That is just one example of why Bear Markets must be swing traded, if you are to hold on to your gains. When panic strikes, most investors resort to buying puts to offset portfolio losses... as the S&P Crashes, Wave 5 in the $VIX will Spike through the Roof. The current pattern is identical, but far more severe, than the lead-off from the 2007 low in the aqua inset Unlike wasting assets, the volatility ETFs are far preferable, since they have no time limit, so if you are wrong on the timing, you can always make a comeback on the next move.

$1 S&P 500 Monthly since 1982 - Bullish until 2000, Bearish until valuations drop at least 62%

Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default of its foreign debt is inevitable. Just as the 1929 withdrawal of US gold reserves from Germany intensified bitter depression, a debased dollar will kill the US ability to borrow on international markets, to topple the American Empire

$1 The Euro priced in Dollars - the B-wave rally will likely exceed the 2008 top of $1.6/Euro.

Like Gold, the Euro is inversely related to US equities. The start of the B-wave, Bear Market Rally in the Euro converges with the same for GOLD....the Euro is backed by far more gold than the US Dollar. QE in the European Union is 2 years old, relatively new compared with US Monetary Easing since 1998 under Greenspan ... in the intermediate term, stimulus appears to do the trick for those with a short time horizon, such as politicians...The Euro is the optimal safe haven for low-risk capital. Yet despite the low risk characteristics, the returns will beat just about any equity position. You don't really believe Ben Bernanke reversed the Bear Market, do you?

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