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Categories:Elliott Wave Analysis
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Sept 11 SPX 30-min 1bc New Chart clearly shows Bearish Diag II
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Sep 1 Long Gold Daily since mid-2016 Added
Aug 28 New Signals and adjustments are marked by 3 red asterisks
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Nov 20 $VIX - NEW Chart - the VIX Daily
Aug 19 History repeats itself nowhere more often than in Market, for trading purposes, the $VIX is the reciprocal of the S&P
Aug 17 The $VIX, volatility index, which moves inversely to the S&P, was up 56% just a week ago, it has retraced most of the upside, leaving a paltry 14% gain. Most likely the remaining 14%, highlighted by the yellow wick in the last candle, will be given back, before the subsequent spike. That is just one example of why Bear Markets must be swing traded, if you are to hold on to your gains. When panic strikes, most investors resort to buying puts to offset portfolio losses... as the S&P Crashes, Wave 5 in the $VIX will Spike through the Roof. The current pattern is identical, but far more severe, than the lead-off from the 2007 low in the aqua inset Unlike wasting assets, the volatility ETFs are far preferable, since they have no time limit, so if you are wrong on the timing, you can always make a comeback on the next move.
Since Gold in operating at Cycle Degree, 1/4 the magnitude of the S&P at Supercyle degree, it is best viewed in weekly increments. This chart compares Spot Gold to the Jr Miners, by the ETF JNUG. Like small-cap stocks, for Junior Miners hikes Gold price drop to the bottom line, they become highly profitable with a marginal price increase. The Major Gold producer's profits track Spot Gold, where price increases are eroded by higher overhead, however when the situation reverses at the end of the cycle, the Major Gold producers remain profitable even as the price of gold drops below the cost of extraction for the Juniors. The majors simply moth-ball the high cost mines, until the spot prices exceeds their unit costs. At the beginning of a Major Rally, Jr. Gold's price augment rapidly, only to fall off a cliff when they drop below a higher cost of extraction...same as small cap stocks which tend have difficulty obtaining enough capital... Small Cap Silver and Gold are beginning buoyant period similar to small cap equities beginning in 1982.... all this in spite of the death of equities proclaimed by Barron's on the cover in 1982
the nascent B-wave, Bear Market Rally in Silver will likely exceed the 2011 high , making for a buoyant 3-5 year RALLY in Silver, as equities crater.
The long chart of Natural Gas since 1990 shows the long Bull Market in Natural Gas prefaced by a 9 year bullish, Diag II, (green) the most bullish of all price patterns in a colossal beginning. Cycle Wave III should top at least 61.8% higher than Cycle Wave I, in the area of 22. The third wave stair-steps up in magnitude to arrive at Cycle Degree at the Tip, after Primary wave 4. Currently Cycle wave 2 will likely retrace the area of 1.5-2. The next long upside is wave 3, in the meantime, best remain short via the inverse or short Gas. Note how Cycle Wave II is clearly an A-B-C Bear Market typical of all corrections. Bear Markets are corrections at higher magnitudes, requiring at least a weekly chart to see the entirety on one page. Next a transition from bearish to bullish shown in purple under time in years on the x-axis - this 3-wave structure is an essential characteristic of the Wave Principle discovered by RN Elliott, Robert Prechter naively discarded it at the beginning of his career and incorrigibly refused to recant in arrogance. Elliott called this the A-B Base prior to a Bull run, however it occurs when reversing bullish to bearish, proportional to the degree of magnitude.
The Big Picture Monthly Crude Oil since 1997. is beginning Cycle Wave III Bull Market. Primary wave 2 could trough in an irregular bottom in the area of 22. The Crude Bull Market Topped Cycle Wave I in 2008, as stocks and the Dollar went into free-fall. Still inversely related to equities, Wave III should break through the roof, as equities go into free-fall. This time, we can expect a similarly lagging Rally in crude oil. Before OIL can take off, it must first stop-out many Buy & Hold fools. The likely low is in the range of $27. Once the dumb money gets stopped out, there are no sellers on the way up, fueling a Spike... For now, we hold INVERSE, or short Crude Oil, as the better option, going our way.
Gold and Equities have a long-standing inverse relationship. When stocks CRASH, Gold and Silver will skyrocket in a Bear Market Rally far more vigorous than any Market driven by Greed - this one fueled by Safe Haven shelter. On the left y-axis you see the price of Spot Gold, since the start of the long Bull Market, Supercycle Wave (III) ended in 2000. The Fed has forestalled the inevitable, only to magnify the vanishing of Trillions in a flash, to withdraw Bull Market excess, multiplied by Fed manipulation. As always, the higher markets climb, the harder they must fall by Newton's law. The longer they accelerate, the more time they have to destroy capital in a Flash Crash.
Notice how close the high in Shanghai came to our long-term estimate of 3490
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