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Categories:Elliott Wave Analysis
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Gold and Equities have a long-standing inverse relationship. When stocks CRASH, Gold and Silver will skyrocket in a Bear Market Rally far more vigorous than any Market driven by Greed - this one fueled by Safe Haven shelter. On the left y-axis you see the price of Spot Gold, since the start of the long Bull Market, Supercycle Wave (III) ended in 2000. The Fed has forestalled the inevitable, only to magnify the vanishing of Trillions in a flash, to withdraw Bull Market excess, multiplied by Fed manipulation. As always, the higher markets climb, the harder they must fall by Newton's law. The longer they accelerate, the more time they have to destroy capital in a Flash Crash.
Notice how close the high in Shanghai came to our long-term estimate of 3490
Like Gold, the Euro is inversely related to US equities. The start of the B-wave, Bear Market Rally in the Euro converges with the same for GOLD....the Euro is backed by far more gold than the US Dollar. QE in the European Union is 2 years old, relatively new compared with US Monetary Easing since 1998 under Greenspan ... in the intermediate term, stimulus appears to do the trick for those with a short time horizon, such as politicians...The Euro is the optimal safe haven for low-risk capital. Yet despite the low risk characteristics, the returns will beat just about any equity position. You don't really believe Ben Bernanke reversed the Bear Market, do you?
Former Safe Havens, Rather than the undervalued price of money formerly set by the Fed, higher interest rates will instead be forced by the Market, in a surge shown by the dashed green arrow at 125. Where it retraces the bearish Diag II. From enduring undervaluation comes a dramatic reversal to Spike higher rates, and a huge Capital loss for those expecting a Safe Haven...?
Former Safe Haven T-Bonds are now certificates of Guaranteed Confiscation. By forcing corporate pensions to prop-up the equities market, artificially-low interest rates have undermined corporate Pensions. Rather than catch-up with their underfunded liabilities, the Crash will obliterate most pensions. The few left standing will be raided for working capital. Instead of the comfortable retirements expected, assuming hand-to-mouth social security survives, most retirees will be forced to live like students again. Stimulus debases the currency, to skyrocket the national debt, leading to insolvency. Up to now, the US Federal Government has been largely financed with foreign borrowed money from Chinese and Japanese savings. Once the dollar collapse becomes recognized as inevitable, an enormous flow of funds out of the Dollar will force Spiking interest rates, to result in insolvency to dwarf Greece. The price of Bonds must drop commensurate with the hike in interest rates demanded by investors to hold us DEBT, from current prices, a 57% capital loss is required to reach 65 on the Y-axis, to retrace the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, wave (iv) marked by the aqua bar
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