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About this blog: is our free newsletter for individuals interested in technical trading and chart analysis. It is sent out twice a month via email. This blog contains early-access, preview versions of the articles that later appear in the official newsletter.

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ChartWatchers

Finding Leading Stocks in Strong Uptrends (Trend Following)

by Arthur Hill

Trend following strategies are built on the premise that trends persist and we can make money by simply following the trend until it ends. There will be losers along the way, but a few strong trends will more than make up for the losses. It sounds great in theory, but putting it into practice is, of course, another matter. The first step to trend following is finding strong uptrends. As far as stocks are concerned, we should also focus on leading stocks. Thus, we need an indicator that captures strong trends and upside leadership. Enter the humble Price Channel, also Read More 

ChartWatchers

Selling in China Unsettles Global Stocks This Morning on Tariff Threats -- But US Stock Indexes Are Recovering from Early Selling

by John Murphy

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, August 2nd at 1:43pm ET. TARIFF THREATS PUSH CHINESE MARKETS LOWER Threats of higher tariffs on Chinese imports, combined with Chinese threats of retaliation, put international markets on the defensive today. It started in Asia, spread to Europe, and caused a lower stock opening here. China took the biggest hit. The red line in Chart 1 shows the Deutsche X-Trackers CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) falling more than 2% today to the lowest close in more than a year. That helped pull Read More 

ChartWatchers

Fundamentals: Market Still Extremely Overvalued

by Carl Swenlin

What's a technical guy doing talking about fundamentals? Well, I believe that charts of fundamental data are as useful as price charts in helping us visualize fundamental context and trends. In the case of earnings, the following chart shows us where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line); fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). I have added three hash marks on the right side of the chart to show where the range will be at the end of this fiscal year based upon earnings estimates for 2018 Q4. Read More 

ChartWatchers

You're One Week Away From The Two Most Transformative Days Of 2018

by Grayson Roze

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Can you believe that we’re just ONE WEEK AWAY from ChartCon 2018? Our 5th online investing conference goes LIVE on the morning of August 1oth at 10:00am ET, and I can hardly contain my excitement. The presentations have been sent in, our bonus videos are ready to go, and the speakers start arriving in Seattle this weekend. In short, we're ready to bring you two of the most transformative, inspiring days you can imagine. Now that we’re only a few days away from the conference, our Support Team has been receiving plenty of Read More 

ChartWatchers

This New Behind-The-Scenes Video Perfectly Captures The ChartCon Spirit

by Grayson Roze

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! In case you missed it, we just released a special behind-the-scenes video that I want to make sure you see. I can hardly believe that ChartCon 2018 is now only TWO WEEKS AWAY, but watching this video really made it feel even more real. Last week, while filming bonus content for the conference, we had a chance to sit down with a few of our featured speakers and talk to them face-to-face about ChartCon. We asked what we thought were a few simple questions like, "What are you most excited for about ChartCon?", but the totally unscripted Read More 

ChartWatchers

Stubborn Weekly Momentum SELL Signals SPX and Dow

by Erin Swenlin

My expectation for week end was two new weekly PMO BUY signals. Instead we got only one. The SPX missed its weekly PMO BUY signal by hair or technically, by two one-hundredths of a point. The OEX managed to squeak its out and the Dow is finally seeing a possible weekly PMO bottom. The NDX is just sitting back and waiting for everyone to catch up. It's been on a weekly PMO BUY signal since mid-June. The OEX is attempting a breakout above resistance from the February/March top. It managed to hurdle the 2nd quarter top last week but pulled back slightly to close just Read More 

ChartWatchers

The Big Start To Earnings Comes Out Flat

by Greg Schnell

The US earnings season is in full bloom with major corporate earnings announcements flowing. The earnings have come out just fine, but it seems investors had already figured that out. This week the market is flat with a doji candle. What brings this doji to my attention is that it showed up while we were trying to make a convincing break above 2800.  There has been a lot of talk about the FANG leadership and the heavy weighting they have on the index. The bottom line is the NASDAQ 100 ended the week with a slight negative which is hardly the resounding Read More 

ChartWatchers

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Is Still Testing Overhead Resistance

by John Murphy

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, July 19th at 1:46pm ET. The monthly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) forming a major bottoming pattern that started six years ago (2012). Its monthly MACD lines (bottom box) are at the most positive reading in ten years. That favors an eventual upside breakout. [A decisive upside breakout would also break a falling trendline going back more than three decades]. Since May, however, the TNX has been pulling back. The chart below shows one of the reasons why. The Read More 

ChartWatchers

Two Key Sectors Move from Laggards to Leaders

by Arthur Hill

The Financials SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) weighed on the broader market the first six months of the year, but perked up in July and started to show some upside leadership. The PerfChart below shows the percentage change for the ten sector SPDRs from December 29th to June 29th, the first six months of 2018. Only three sectors stand out: the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (red), the Technology SPDR (green) and the Energy SPDR (black). The rest were either fractionally higher or down. Notice that the Financials SPDR (blue) and Industrials SPDR (magenta) were down 3.97% and 4.58% Read More 

ChartWatchers

Fresh Trading Opportunities as Earnings Season Shifts into High Gear

by John Hopkins

Traders have been waiting patiently for Q2 earnings season to begin and now they need to wait no longer. Already we've heard from some of the largest banks in the world and on Tuesday we heard from EBAY, who came up short and then Thursday from one of the largest Market Cap tech companies, Microsoft, who exceeded expectations.   To me the market is at its finest when companies that come up short of expectations are punished while those that meet/beat expectations are rewarded, which is the way it should be. We can see this in the two charts Read More 

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