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Latest Posts

HON Climbs With An Earnings Pop On High Volume

by Greg Schnell

Honeywell (HON) had a nice earnings report that popped the stock after a shallow pullback.  This price move generated signals on various indicators. The SCTR surged above 75 and the Relative Strength surged to new 9 month highs. The price action made a new intraday high and broke out from a shallow downtrend. The volume climb was significant with 10 Million shares in 2 days. For...  Read More

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap 4/21/2017 -- Correction Over?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote, "The first necessary signal that the correction is over would be for the daily PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) to turn up."  That happened on Thursday, but there was no follow through on Friday due to, I believe, it being options expiration day, which tends to dampen volatility and keep prices steady. The slight decline caused the PMO to turn down again, but the  Read More

Vive la Volatilite (Or, Let Them Eat Risk-Off Cookies!)

by Tushar Chande

The market chose to fret about French elections this week, because a string of recent elections have led to unexpected outcomes, even though US exposure to the French economy is quite small.  Earnings season helped risk-on sectors gain this week, and risk-off groups waned.  However, trader anxiety, doused early in the week, flared up again after the terrorist incident on Champs...  Read More

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Video - Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Is the Correction Over?

by Arthur Hill

-----   Video Link   -----   Art's Charts ChartList (updated 22-Apr)   -----      This video is a companion to the  Read More

Tensile Trading ChartPack Update (Q1 - 2017) Enhancements, Updates and the Latest Fidelity Buys and Sells

by Gatis Roze

Anywhere you see excellence and mastery happening, you'll discover the same set of recurring universal truths.  Great athletes achieve excellence and make it look effortless. Great investors make market mastery seem natural and make profits look easy. I love the line "I worked all my life to become an overnight success."  For me, this embodies the foundation of excellence and the...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Small-caps Perk Up and Sector Balance is Bullish

by Arthur Hill

.... Weekly Market Review & Outlook  .... Economically Sensitive Groups Take the Lead .... Small-caps Get a Breadth Thrust .... New Highs Hit 4-week High .... IJR and MDY Lead Bounce .... More Consolidation than Correction for SPY .... QQQ Continues to Lead .... Ranking the Sectors for the Four Day Surge .... Sector SPDRs Still Tilting Bullish .... EW Consumer Discretionary Sector  Read More

Thursday's Rally Recipe Filled With Bullish Ingredients

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, April 20, 2017 We've yet to see the breakouts in our major indices that we're looking for, but yesterday's rally was quite bullish with leadership coming from the small cap Russell 2000 ($RUT, +1.24%), financials (XLF, +1.69%) and industrials (XLI, +1.21%).  All three of those led the huge rally back in November and December - on an absolute and...  Read More

DP Alert: New ST Trend Model BUY for NDX - Gold Pulls Back

by Erin Heim

Today the Nasdaq 100 triggered a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal. This replaces a Neutral signal from exactly one week ago. In the thumbnail of the chart below the  Read More

Dycom Breaks Cup Resistance With Strong Volume

by Tom Bowley

Our major indices have been consolidating for many weeks and that's enabled many individual stocks to consolidate in bullish continuation patterns.  Dycom Industries (DY) is one such stock as it formed a long-term cup from early-August to late-February before printing a handle throughout March.  The right side of the cup showed very heavy volume before volume tailed off as the...  Read More

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MONEY IS ROTATING INTO THE EUROZONE WHICH IS OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. -- BRITISH STOCKS ARE LAGGING BEHIND

by John Murphy

EUROZONE STOCKS ARE ATTRACTING GLOBAL FUNDS ... Part of the reason that U.S. stocks haven't been doing so well during 2017 is that global funds are moving into other parts of the world. Especially to Europe. More specifically, the eurozone. The reason is simple. U.S. stocks are considered to be more expensive, while eurozone stocks are viewed as a better bargain. The following charts...  Read More

Gold Stalls, Miners Underperform, Caution Once Again!

by Greg Schnell

Gold is at a major inflection point on the chart. Technicians of all persuasions will be checking out this chart. However, there are multiple technical views of the same chart. The RSI on the following chart suggests Gold is back in a bear market. The RSI is at the top level (~60) for a bear market rally. The MACD right at zero doesn't give us any clues. Secondly, a more...  Read More

Rally In Semiconductors Looking Suspicious

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, April 19, 2017 The U.S. equity market enjoyed strong early gains on Wednesday only to see them mostly evaporate throughout the balance of the session.  The Dow Jones lagged badly all day as one of its components - IBM (-4.92%) - disappointed Wall Street with its latest quarterly results.  Weakness in energy (XLE, -1.47%) contributed to...  Read More

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Some Markets And Key Ratios Are At The Brink, But At The Brink Of What?

by Martin Pring

Bond yields sending a deflationary message Intermarket signals from equities are close to deflationary signals So are similar measures for bonds More on confidence relationships Wednesday's close saw a lot of key ratios and some markets resting on key trendlines and moving averages. Since these benchmarks represent potential support, that could mean a bounce, followed by a reversal of recent...  Read More

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Measuring the Risk Appetite with Beta, Volatility and Ratios - GDX Underperforms GLD

by Arthur Hill

.... High-Beta/Low-Vol Ratio Reflects Risk Environment .... Risk Ratios Stabilize within Downtrends .... Stock:Bond Ratio Turns Down .... High Yield Bond SPDR Could be Vulnerable .... Internet, Software and Cloud-Computing Hold Up .... Gold Miners ETF Underperforms Gold ....  High-Beta/Low-Vol Ratio Reflects Risk Environment There are a number of ways to measure the risk appetite in the...  Read More

04/19 MarketWatchers LIVE Show Recap

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but we will try to incorporate a few charts that you found the most...  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-04-20

by Greg Schnell

Here is this weeks Commodities Countdown Video Recording. On the recording I worked through Breadth, Currencies, Bonds, Commodities including Gold and Oil, Foreign markets, and some unique charts. Lots of information on Intermarket Analysis. Commodities Countdown With Greg Schnell 2017-04-20 from  Read More

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Shows Promise

by Erin Heim

During today's MarketWatchers LIVE show (12:00p - 1:30p EST MWF), Tom will review and annotate ten charts in ten minutes at ten minutes to one. We call it the "Ten in Ten to One". One of the first charts he reviewed was Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) which we both agreed looked pretty good right now. You'll find my analysis below...  Read More

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ENERGY SHARES LEAD MARKET LOWER AS CRUDE OIL DROPS TO TWO-WEEK LOW -- TWO ENERGY ETFS FALL TO NEW 2017 LOW

by John Murphy

CLIMB IN GASOLINE SUPPLIES HURTS CRUDE... A surprising jump in gasoline supplies caused heavy selling in the price of crude oil and gasoline. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) falling nearly 4% today to the lowest level in two weeks. The USO also fell back below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. And it do on rising volume. Gasoline fell 3%. That helped...  Read More

Etrade Corrects into Fibonacci Cluster

by Arthur Hill

It has been a rough year for small-caps because the Russell 2000 iShares is up just 1.34% year-to-date and severely trailing the S&P 500 SPDR, which is up around 5.5%. Chartists looking for clues of a small-cap revival may want to watch E-Trade Financial (ETFC) and the other discount brokers (SCHW and AMTD). I will focus on ETFC today because it is currently correcting within an uptrend. An...  Read More

Industrial Suppliers Have Had A Rough Week

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, April 18, 2017 The Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Suppliers Index ($DJUSDS) tumbled more than 6% on Tuesday as the group absorbed its second earnings shock in the past week.  W.W. Grainger (GWW) came up short of its earnings expectations, then lowered guidance and traders punished the stock as GWW fell more than 11%.  This drop followed a...  Read More

Utilities (XLU) moving into leading quadrant, what are the strongest (and the weakest) stocks for this sector?

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the stocks that, together, make up the Utilities sector index (XLU). The keen observer may notice that there is one stock, NRG, positioned in the "gutter" of the chart. This is done on purpose as NRG is so far out to the right of the graph that it compresses all other stocks if I would include it, properly positioned, on the RRG. I  Read More

DP Alert: Indicators Turn South - UUP New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Heim

A look at the DecisionPoint Scoreboards reminds us that the short term is weak. Don't be fooled by the IT PMO BUY signals on the boards right now, I happen to know we have negative crossovers showing up on the weekly charts for three of these indexes. It's not surprising that our indicators are in line with the current scores. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is  Read More

Aflac (AFL) Quacks Out A New High - Members Dashboard Tip

by Greg Schnell

Some commercials are more memorable than others. As soon as we are reminded of the word Aflac, we immediately think of the white duck in a bizarre situation screaming AFLAC ! Without question, the commercials work for brand recognition. However, today the Aflac stock broke out to a new 52-week high from a nice consolidation.  This chart has lots of similarity to the Japanese Yen chart.  Read More

The Big AAPL

by Bruce Fraser

Wyckoffians are always on the search for Causes being built. A trend will end and a Cause will start. A Cause will end and a trend will start. The Wyckoff Method is centered around the interpretation of these conditions and the appropriate tactics. The Composite Operator (C.O.) is our 'fictitious' large investor who builds size positions in these campaign stocks. The C.O. Accumulation of these...  Read More

The Canadian Technician Video Recording 2017-04-18

by Greg Schnell

Here is a link to this week's video recording.  The Canadian Technician Video Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-04-18 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA    Read More

Financials And Transports Lead U.S. Rally

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, April 17, 2017 If you're in the bullish camp, you have to be breathing a sigh of relief following yesterday's action.  It was only one day, but after the bulls' grip on the market really seemed to be slipping at the end of last week, we saw all four of the aggressive areas of the market perform well on Monday, leading a very nice rally that  Read More

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Conflicting Bollinger Band Signals for SPY and QQQ - Stocks to Watch

by Arthur Hill

.... SPY Remains with Bearish Bollinger Band Signal .... QQQ Counters with Bullish Band Signal .... GOOGL Springs to Life - Plus FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT .... A Year of Frustration for IJR .... Airlines Remain Strong Overall  .... Stocks: CTRL, FEYE, SQ, TDC, MDT and MRK ....  The major stock indices are downright boring right now and this is reflected in the BandWidth indicator. The  Read More

Possible Selling Exhaustion Lining Up on Breadth and VIX Indicators

by Erin Heim

Tom Bowley and I host the MarketWatchers LIVE webcast M/W/F 12:00p - 1:30p EST. During Monday's second market update, I like to review the DecisionPoint indicators to look at indicator expectations for the week. The chart that really stood out to me was the ultra-short-term indicator chart.  First, this timeframe...  Read More

Fear Index Drops To Lower Gear

by Tushar Chande

The $VIX index closed below its prior two lows today.  It's 7-day RSI has dropped below 70.  In the past this has generally turned into an important reversal in the VIX index.  Today, key market indexes and sub-sectors, such as the NYSE composite and XLF held support and bonds (and gold) reversed.  A typical unwinding of the defensive selling ahead of the long weekend, a...  Read More

04/17 MarketWatchers LIVE Show Recap

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but we will try to incorporate a few charts that you found the most interesting during the show (or that we found most...  Read More

Industrials SPDR Becomes Oversold and Finds Support

by Arthur Hill

The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is at an interesting juncture because the long-term trend is up and it is testing the January breakout. After hitting a 52-week high in February, the ETF fell back to the breakout zone in the 63.50 area and firmed with a long white candlestick four weeks ago. Broken resistance is turning into support as StochRSI becomes short-term oversold. Look for a breakout at 66  Read More

10 Year Treasury Breaks Down, Signals Potential Economic Weakness Ahead

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, April 13, 2017 The big news on Thursday - at least technically - was the breakdown in the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) to its lowest close since early November.  Most traders have been expecting continuing economic strength based on wisdom from the Federal Reserve.  However, price action is beginning to tell a different story as money moves...  Read More

Filtering the Noise II

by Greg Morris

The first article of Filtering the Noise dealt with smoothing the data with moving averages.  Here I want to discuss a really popular concept popularized by an indicator called Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD.  MACD is a concept using two exponential averages developed by Gerald Appel...  Read More

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Bull Market Correction Looks Likely To Continue

by Martin Pring

Recent technical deterioration Bonds and the recent false upside breakout Gold's false breakout also turned out to be "false" The long-term indicators for the equity market continue to look positive, as the major averages are comfortably above their key moving averages. Pretty well all measures of long-term smoothed momentum also remain in an uptrend. That may change, of course, but the  Read More

Investment Grade Corporates Outperform Junk Bonds

by John Murphy

The green bars in the chart below show the iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond iShares (LQD) trading at a new five-month high after clearing its 200-day average. The red bars, however, show the iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond iShares (HYG) backing off from its early March high. The fact that investment grade bonds are rising, while junk bonds are weakening...  Read More

Bank Profits Soar But Bank Stocks Sour

by Tom Bowley

At the time of the last ChartWatchers article, I didn't really see a whole lot to be nervous about.  However, the bullish picture certainly is getting a bit murkier based on developments since then.  After a very strong ADP employment report on April 5th, most everyone was expecting a solid nonfarm payrolls report two days later.  That never materialized, though, as the consensus...  Read More

A Brief History of Post-Election Rallies (Or, could the "Trump Rally" go even higher?)

by Tushar Chande

As dark clouds gather over the investment horizon this Easter weekend, the post-election rally in the US stock market (the "Trump Rally") seems to have faded just a bit.  Is the rally over? Or, can the recent history of US stock returns during the first year of a new presidential four-year term give us some useful guidance?  We explore this question, in the hope we will find an Easter...  Read More

Earnings Take Center Stage

by John Hopkins

It's that time of the year, a time when all attention is turned to the bottom line of corporate America. It happens every quarter and it always has a major impact on the direction of the market. And the bottom line almost always trumps everything else. Of course there are other factors that impact the market including economic reports, geopolitical developments, Federal Reserve policies, as...  Read More

Wal-Mart (WMT) Hints At New 52 Week Highs - Search Tip

by Greg Schnell

Wal-Mart (WMT) started ringing all kinds of alarm bells this week. Let's look at the chart, and then in the educational segment, I'll show some of the technical signals that Wal-Mart is marking. Wal-Mart's SCTR has been rising recently. The price is trying to break out to new 52-week highs. This makes Wal-Mart interesting. The relative strength trend line broke in late February. The daily...  Read More

How to Track ETF Tracking Errors - Examples for USO and GLD

by Arthur Hill

Most of us are aware of the tracking error between oil and the US Oil Fund. There is indeed a tracking error, but a few charts reveal that this tracking error is subject to fluctuations and can even remain stable for extended periods. Today I will show how to measure tracking errors between ETFs and the underlying asset. Gold and oil will be used for examples, but these techniques can be  Read More