Commodities Countdown

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018).

Latest Posts

Commodities Countdown

Gold and Silver 2018-04-13 Video

by Greg Schnell

Gold and Silver have been perking up lately. More importantly the miners have been moving faster than the metals.  I am posting this blog on Tuesday and the precious metals stocks are flying even though Gold is unchanged on the day.  When the mining stocks outperform the metals, this is usually an excellent time to be invested in the industry. Here is a chart of the miners compared to the metal. The huge breakout continues. This suggests to me that Gold is finally going to break above the 5 year base. Last week it briefly broke Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Wiggle Lower 2018-04-05 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities did not make any major moves this week. But the setup in the US Dollar is particularly interesting. This is the first push above the base. Over the next week it will be very important to watch for the follow through. Gold was particularly weak this week, but the gold stocks moved higher today even when Gold pulled back. Keep your antenna watching the action in Gold. Notice the volume soars on up days and goes very quiet on down days. That is a bullish scenario. Gold moved down 0.5 % today. Below is the Gold miner ETF GDX. It closed Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Dollar Swing 2018-03-29 Video

by Greg Schnell

Bullish Percent Indexes are at strong buy levels Crude unchanged Natural Gas gets set for April Dollar spins back to the top of the 11 week range Currencies are vulnerable to major trend changes now Global Indexes give monthly sell signals The five Bullish Percent indexes in the videos give some great clues.    With a wild ride this week, investors are trying to solve the riddle of when the lows are in. In this weeks video, I cover off a couple of clues why this is probably a very successful entry Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Vicious Reversal In The US Dollar

by Greg Schnell

The US Dollar continues to be a tricky market to follow.  On Monday, the US Dollar gapped below support and the PPO trend line looked to be resistance. I like to use weekly charts for my indicators for long term direction as the daily indicators swing too much to indicate long term trend. For those that have been following the sideways trading range in the dollar, the weekly chart has been working us back and forth. But on Monday, everything looked lower. The full stochastics indicator continued to go lower after turning down the week before. The chart below shows Monday's Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Precious Metals Stocks Avoid The Cliff

by Greg Schnell

A wild ride for the indexes Thursday created all sorts of issues for technicians. Failed breakouts, double tops, trend lines snapping, and a myriad of other technical terms. It was a big day with relentless selling into the close.  Hard to find bright spots in a messy slide, but there were a few. One of the areas of the market I am intrigued by is the precious metals industry group. This is an unloved, unpolished, area of the market. Silver had one piece of information this week, that moves it into the so unloved camp, there is no one on the other side. Commodity buyers like offside Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Indexes Are Tricky Here

by Greg Schnell

Last week the Russell 2000 gave off some very important clues that the markets were ready to break. While sometimes they rally from these levels, the actual setup can make technicians more aware of the keen balance the market is currently in. While no one needs to be too quick to call a market top or a bear market, a technician can at least be aware when the setup is there for more downside. Some of those conditions could be Net New Highs which I use a lot. Arthur Hill's work uses Advance-Decline lines a lot. I also use Bullish Percent Indexes and the percent of stocks above the 200 Daily Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Are Slipping 2018-03-15 Video

by Greg Schnell

  Indexes and breadth video Currencies and bonds video Commodities  video The market suffered a tough down day to start the week. While this may feel like an isolated one-off incident, the momentum indicators were kicking up plenty of divergences on the weekly chart. Shown below is a daily chart including Monday's close. The MACD is rolling over near the zero level so this is particularly concerning. On a weekly chart, the market does not look as bad for the $SPX yet. The Full Stochastic indicator is Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Currencies Hit Massive Trend Lines 2018-03-15 Video

by Greg Schnell

For the currencies, the $USD has wound sideways for 9 weeks. However, it is a change from downtrend to sideways that is creating pressure on the $USD chart. This chart does not include Monday. The real question is if the Dollar pushes higher here, it will turn the momentum to the upside. If the PPO breaks this downtrend line, I would be more concerned that the dollar is not going to continue the bear market run. Currently there is positive divergence on the chart which also suggests a higher dollar.  There is a lot of information on the Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Looking At The Energy Setup 2018-03-10 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities were flat this week, but some of the charts are reaching levels that investors should be stalking new entries. In commodities, I look for commodity related trades that are setting up technically. While the US Dollar can't make up its mind on direction, there may be hope for another run in energy related stocks. It is still early, but there is a compelling chart in my chartlist that has identified the coming low as a great place to look for long positions. I have shown this chart occasionally over the last year, but we are starting to see another set up opportunity in the Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Finding Strong Stocks With Industry Chartlists

by Greg Schnell

Another week where the commodities can't get rolling. Steel was in the news all week with the tariff announcement but the industry group was down 1.5%. Aluminum was part of the tariffs, and was up 4.2%. Gold forgot to rally again.  Coal continues to smoulder with some warm ash, up 2.5%. Perhaps thats on the back of more steel and aluminum processing under the tariffs. Oil and oil services are up 1.3 to 1.5%. Well, that's a little lift, it is not enough to reverse a lot of the technical damage.  The Renewables had a great week up 4%. Read More 

Subscribe to Commodities Countdown to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!