DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin #2: SPX Adds Short-Term Trend Model SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The OEX added a ST Trend Model SELL signal yesterday, and today the SPX will join with its own ST Trend Model SELL signal. These signals are generated on 5/20-EMA crossovers. When it is a positive crossover, it is a BUY signal. When it is a negative crossover, the signal can be either a SELL or Neutral. To determine which bearish signal to use, note the placement of the crossover. If it occurred above the 50-EMA it is a ST Trend Model Neutral signal. If it occurred below the 50-EMA (like today's signal), it is a SELL signal. Even if price had Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: OEX First to Log Short-Term SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The whipsaw Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal generating on the OEX Friday below its 50-EMA was the culprit for today's ST Trend Model SELL signal. Remember that ST Trend Model signals are generated by 5/20-EMA crossovers in relation to the 50-EMA. A positive crossover is always a BUY signal. However, if a negative 5/20-EMA crossover occurs, there are two signals that can be generated, Neutral and SELL. If the negative crossover occurs below the 50-EMA, it is a SELL signal; otherwise, it is a Neutral signal. Today deep decline brought Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Break or Fake?

by Carl Swenlin

Last week SPY was below the cyclical bull market rising trend line. This week there was a post-election pop on Wednesday that caused SPY to recapture that rising trend line. Will that breakout hold, or is it a fakeout? There are two features on the daily chart that say to me that the latter is the case. First, the OBV line has formed a negative divergence, and, second, the VIX has topped at the top Bollinger Band, an event that in the last year has usually signaled a price top. At this point I'll be looking for a second trend line failure and lower prices. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Momentum Shift - New PMO BUY Signals on DP Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

Lots of new BUY signals are appearing on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards in the short-term timeframe. This is good news for bulls, but I don't think they can breathe easy just yet. This rally reminds me of the last big rally we had in October that was not fueled by heavy volume. That rally failed. Today volume on the SPX was just under average. I would expect a day that finally released pent up bullish energy would have produced at least above average volume. Pundits are saying that the 'scared' money hasn't re-entered and that is why volume was low today. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: Dow and SPX Log New BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow and SPX both triggered PMO BUY signals after the close yesterday. In addition, the Dow printed a ST Trend Model BUY signal. I will be writing a more comprehensive blog this evening on these signal changes that occurred on the close yesterday. I just wanted to give everyone the heads up before tonight. I would also like to note that after the close today, the NDX and OEX should also log PMO BUY Signals. Read tonight's DP Alert for details. The PMO BUY signals are triggered when the PMO crossed above its signal line. The ST Trend Model BUY signal is Read More 

DecisionPoint

AAPL: Another Parabolic Breakdown

by Carl Swenlin

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is nothing if not repetitive. AAPL experiences frenzied, parabolic advances that are followed by equally dramatic corrections. This has happened no less than three times in the last 11 years with an average correction of -48%. Now it appears to be happening again, as price has recently broken down through the most recent parabolic arc. To me the most obvious downside target is about 127, a decline of about -45%. As a technical target it looks reasonable, and it falls in line with the magnitude of previous corrections. Caveat: This is a Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP weekly Wrap: Not a Good BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

In the Weekly Wrap I have been saying that a short-term buy of SPY should not be considered until the daily PMO turns up. As it happens, the PMO turned up on Thursday, but I must confess that I wasn't thrilled. When the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) turns up, we should view it as a possible short-term BUY signal; however, there are plenty of caveats to that statement. For one thing, we want to see the PMO make a smooth bottom after a nice, smooth decline. I have highlighted two of what I consider to be the best looking PMO bottoms on the chart. The problem with the most recent one is Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Monthly Charts Go "Final"

by Erin Swenlin

It's been some time since I've written about the monthly charts. Carl usually is the lucky one to cover them given the end of the month often hits on a Friday when he writes the Weekly Wrap. I thought today I'd cover the monthly charts for the DP Scoreboard indexes as well as a look at the SP400 ETF (IJH) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). I'll finish it off with the monthly charts of the "Big Four", Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds. Watch tomorrow's MarketWatchers LIVE show at 12:00p EST where I'll be talking through all of these charts with more detail. You might also be able to catch the Read More 

DecisionPoint

"DecisionPoint" Sector CandleGlance - Finding PMO Clues - XLF, XLB and XLV

by Erin Swenlin

I'm going to show you one of the ways you can use a "DecisionPoint" CandleGlance ChartStyle to immediately see, on one page, the health of all market sectors. I have written about how to use CandleGlance for sifting scans and how to set-up a "DecisionPoint" CandleGlance ChartStyle. Let's combine some of that knowledge and use DP CandleGlance to evaluate the sectors. There are a few ways to find the Sector CandleGlance. First, from the homepage, click on the Sector Summary the Control Center on the left: Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Bull Market Trend Line Broken

by Carl Swenlin

I normally don't show an in-progress monthly chart because a monthly chart isn't final until the end of the month, but this week's market action was so severe, I thought that a 'big picture' view would be most helpful. The cyclical bull market rising trend line drawn from the 2016 low was decisively violated this week with a breakdown of over -5%. A 'decisive' break (-3% or greater) carries with it the assumption that lower prices will follow. This assumption is reinforced by the fact that the monthly PMO has topped and crossed down through the signal line (EOM pending). Read More 

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