DP Bulletin: Dollar (UUP) ITTM SELL Signal - ITTM Neutral Signals for XLU and RYU


The Dollar (UUP) continues to form a bearish head and shoulders pattern in textbook fashion. The decline continues and consequently, there was a negative 20/50-EMA crossover BELOW the 200-EMA which constitutes an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) SELL signal. For the Utilities SPDR (XLU) and Utilities Equal-Weight (RYU), new ITTM Neutral signals executed on a 20/50-EMA negative crossover ABOVE the 200-EMA which is why it is a Neutral signal and not a SELL signal.

Nothing bullish on this chart. I expect the Dollar to continue to decline and test September lows.

I warned everyone last week that there was an issue with the Utilities sector. The doom and gloom arrived, although I didn't expect the free fall correction that occurred this week. The PMO SELL signal came in nice and early, as did the ST Trend Model Neutral signal (5/20-EMA negative crossover above the 50-EMA).

The bearish head and shoulders executed with gusto as price dropped like a rock. It appears to have found an area of support. However, today price gapped below the 200-EMA. We haven't seen price below the 200-EMA in well over a year. I don't think utilities are a great place to try to find a bottom or catch that falling knife. The PMO has reached oversold territory, so there's a chance we'll see utilities rally, but a death drop like this doesn't smell like an exhaustion, more likely an initiation to lower prices.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)


SCTR Ranking


Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Happy Charting!
- Erin

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Erin Swenlin
About the author: helped create and manage the website alongside her father, Carl Swenlin. Together, Erin and Carl launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009. She hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at, and is also a Member of the CMT Association. Learn More
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