DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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Dow's Weakness and DP Indicators Suggest Gloomy Short Term

by Erin Swenlin

It was only yesterday that I added a new BUY signal to the Dow's Scoreboard and today, it's already gone. The Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers. The Dow's 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA while it was above the 50-EMA--that constitutes a Neutral signal. Had the crossover occurred below the 50-EMA, it would have been an STTM SELL signal. The Scoreboards clearly show Today intraday low tested the rising bottoms trendline that forms the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. These patterns are continuation patterns so the expectation is a break Read More 

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DP Bulletin: OEX & Dow Get New Buy Signals

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the OEX managed to get both a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal and a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. At the time the Dow was the only Scoreboard to not have ST buy signals. Today that changed with a new STTM Buy signal for the Dow. The PMO missed a positive crossover on the Dow by less than one hundredth of a point. So expect to see it tomorrow. In the case of the OEX, I like the new rising trend channel that is forming. The Dow isn't too bad with a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Double Bottoms Abound

by Carl Swenlin

Friday was an exceptionally positive day, as prices advanced on good news regarding North Korea and jobs. Here are charts of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the 10 major sectors. The recurring theme we see is the double bottom. One exception is Utilities (XLU), which hasn't quite made the turn off the second bottom, and Technology (XLK), which actually formed a more aggressive "V" bottom. In addition, XLK has advanced to new, all-time highs this week. All the PMOs have bottomed, and most are above their signal lines. In general it looks as if we have witnessed a successful retest of the February Read More 

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SPX Scoreboard Adds Buy Signals - Is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

Let's get that title question answered right nowNo, I don't think the correction is over. Yes, today we got both a ST Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal and an ST Trend Model BUY signal. The chart still has problems. We had Tushar Chande on MarketWatchers LIVE today (go watch the recording!) and he made a case for a retest of the February low or the set-up of a double-bottom. He noted that many of his fellow bloggers, like Tom and I, have pointed out evidence to bolster that position. It was a bit easier to take that position when the SPX, Dow and OEX Scoreboards were only Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Mixed Messages Warrant Caution

by Erin Swenlin

It's days like today that I find it frustrating to write (probably why this is posted late). It's not really writers' block, but the many mixed messages or lack of messages I'm getting on the charts right now. I could probably make a bullish and bearish case quite easily on most of these charts, but rather than that, I'll give you what the dispassionate indicators are saying. The DP Scoreboards are mixed as well, but clearly leaning neutral to bearish for all but the NDX. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update Read More 

DecisionPoint

Rydex Ratio Turns Down - Bullish Sentiment = Bearish Implications

by Erin Swenlin

I decided to take a look at the Rydex Ratio today to see what the daily assets might be telling us as far as "actual money" sentiment. Here's a refresher for those new to the Rydex Ratio and sentiment readings in general. First, sentiment tells us if market participants are feeling bullish or bearish. The sentiment polls measure those "feelings" by simply asking those polled whether they are bullish or bearish on the market. The Rydex Assets chart shows the reality of what investors are actually doing with their money. Many times it will not sync with the polls. Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Breakout Fakeout and Broken Wedge

by Carl Swenlin

At last Friday's close we were faced with SPY pushing at the top of a bullish flag formation (not annotated). On Monday there was a strong breakout that proved to be a fakeout. On Tuesday price topped and fell back to the top of the flag, and at this point a new formation, a bearish rising wedge, emerged. It is bearish because the rising trend lines on rising wedges are usually too steep to maintain, and the wedge usually resolves downward. The breakdown took place on Wednesday, and the decline continued into Thursday. Friday's intraday reversal hints at a continued bounce next week Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: Scoreboards Lose BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

After deep declines today, the DP Scoreboards lost most of their short-term BUY signals. Rising wedges had appeared on the daily charts and today's decline confirmed it. The expectation is a breakdown from the wedge. The NDX is showing the most relative strength as it continues to cling to its short-term BUY signals. It's beginning to look like we will see a double-bottom rather than a "V" bottom. Be sure to read tomorrow's Weekly Wrap by Carl Swenlin, he'll go more in depth on the short- to intermediate-term market conditions. The strongest Read More 

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Monthly Chart Review of Major Indexes, Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds - Good, Bad & Ugly

by Erin Swenlin

The market has closed on the final day of February. This means that DecisionPoint monthly indicators have "gone final" which is the perfect time to review those signals and take a long-term view of the markets and the DecisionPoint "Big Four"- $USD, $GOLD, $WTIC & $USB. For a live review, tune in to MarketWatchers LIVE tomorrow 12:00p - 1:30p EST. First take a look at the DecisionPoint Scoreboards below. The configuration is decidedly bullish and not what you'd expect to see at the beginning of a bear market. The Dow is holding out. I Read More 

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DP Bulletin: SPX and OEX New BUY Signals - Beware Outside Reversal Days

by Erin Swenlin

Two items I need to call your attention to. First, the PMOs crossed their signal lines on the SPX and OEX to trigger ST PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) BUY signals. The Dow's PMO is stubbornly staying below its signal line, but that should disappear tomorrow given it's only two hundredths of a point away. That brings up item number two. I noticed clear outside reversal bars on all but the Dow. Below are the charts for the SPX and OEX. I've also added the NDX to point out the clear outside reversal bars. This is similar to an engulfing candle, but the high on Read More 

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