DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: Market Still Overbought

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I thought that a market correction was beginning, but all we got was a one-day, downside blip that ended at the low on Monday. From there the market edged higher, closing at new, all-time highs on Thursday and Friday. Nevertheless, the gain for the week was less than one percent, the market is overbought, and my outlook has not changed. That is to say, I think a small correction is likely. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar Read More 

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Nasdaq 100 vs. Equal-Weight NDX ETF (QQEW) - ETF Much Healthier

by Erin Swenlin

Within the past week, we've seen the $NDX beaten up. However, it really has been the result of a few large-cap stocks that have taken the NDX so low. I think this can be most clearly seen when you compare the equal-weight NDX ETF (QQEW) with the $NDX. Here is a chart of each the NDX and QQEW. The chart patterns and support are somewhat similar, but the major differences are the ST Trend Model BUY signal and PMO BUY signal. Notice on the NDX chart below that the ST Trend Model is on a Neutral signal and the PMO is on a SELL signal, a SELL signal that should stay intact for Read More 

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DP Alert: "Missed it By 'That' Much"

by Erin Swenlin

It's clear looking at the NDX Scoreboard that technology has been taking it on the chin. Today, tech titans like Micron (MU), Apple (AAPL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had a great day and consequently pushed the NDX upward. It wasn't enough to clear the ST Trend Model Neutral signal nor the PMO SELL signal. A look at the chart shows us that the ST Trend Model signal isn't likely to hang on if the tech rally continues as the 5-EMA is leaping skyward toward the 20-EMA. The PMO SELL signal, on the other hand, looks fairly intact with enough margin between it and its signal line to Read More 

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Another BUY Signal Bites the Dust for the NDX - New ITTM SELL Signal for UNG

by Erin Swenlin

The Nasdaq 100 lost its PMO BUY signal on Friday and today it loses its ST Trend Model BUY signal (along with important support!). Natural Gas (UNG) had just picked up an IT Trend Model BUY signal, but it has whipsawed away into an ITTM SELL signal. Today's over 1% drop on the NDX busted two areas of support that I had expected to hold. My thought was that after the pullback to earlier lows in September, the index would bounce back. Unfortunately, Apple (AAPL) has been dragging the index lower and it appears many of the other tech companies have been caught in the tide. The 5-EMA Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: AAPL Leads Market Top

by Carl Swenlin

We usually feature a SPY chart in this space, but Apple (AAPL) has really grabbed my attention recently. I have been watching it for a few weeks as it formed a rounded top, and finally broke down through horizontal support on Thursday. AAPL is important to the broad market because it is so heavily weighted in the major market indexes. If it tanks, it will certainly affect the rest of the market. On the positive side, after three day's of selling, it appears to have made a short-term bottom. I know it is blasphemy to speak ill of AAPL, but a healthy Read More 

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Technology Hit Hard, Results in PMO SELL Signal on Nasdaq 100

by Erin Swenlin

As you can see below, the NDX's steep decline has thrown the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) below its signal line. I don't expect to see similar readings from the other indexes as they haven't been hit as hard as techs on the latest declines. It also took the NDX some time to generate the original PMO BUY signal. You'll see on the daily charts for the other three indexes that PMO SELL signals are not likely unless we see a deeper decline. I'm not that worried about this PMO crossover SELL signal. Notice that there is "dual" support available at the 5900 level Read More 

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Equal-Weight ETFs Log New ITTM BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

DecisionPoint tracks not only the sector SPDRS, but we also follow the equal-weight versions. For more information about the benefits of trading equal-weight ETFs, you can read this article written by Carl. Today is a teachable moment with these three IT Trend Model BUY signals arriving on the same day. The lesson? Not all BUY signals are good BUY signals, some may be "good-bye" signals. I'm going to start with the equal-weight Energy ETF (RYE). It shouldn't surprise anyone who follows the DecisionPoint blog (or MarketWatchers LIVE program) that the equal-weight Read More 

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DP Alert: Short-Term Overbought Conditions Suggest Upcoming Pause/Pullback

by Erin Swenlin

It may seem strange that all of the Scoreboards are green except in the area of intermediate-term PMO signals. A look at the weekly charts for all four indexes reveals all but the NDX weekly PMO are rising up toward IT PMO BUY signals. The margin is still rather large so I wouldn't expect to see these signals update until next Friday at the earliest. To see the weekly charts (including daily and monthly charts) of the four Scoreboard indexes, go to the DecisionPoint ChartList. The link is located at the top of the main DecisionPoint blog page. Read More 

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On Fire! Energy, Small- and Mid-Caps, Financials All Trigger ITTM BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

The last two days have issued SIX new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signals. It shouldn't be a surprise that the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Natural Gas (UNG) triggered given the buzz around that sector last week on MarketWatchers LIVE and headlines on our StockCharts.com Blogs page. Arthur Hill and I noted the push that small and mid-caps were making mid-week and today, the Financial sector was on fire. Take a look at these very bullish charts! Last week on MarketWatchers LIVE in our "Agree or Disagree" segment, Tom and I were asked if we Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Climax and Options Expiration Slow Advance

by Carl Swenlin

For a few weeks I have been expecting an upside breakout, and on Monday the breakout finally happened. The internal action on that day indicated that a buying climax had taken place, an event that very often leads to some post-climax churning or pullback. Also, this was an options expiration week, a process that tends to keep prices fairly quiet. Regarding climaxes, the chart above illustrates the phenomenon. To identify upside climaxes I use new highs, as well as net breadth and volume. There are no specific levels that these indicators need to reach, rather we look for a Read More 

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