DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP Weekly Wrap: SPY New BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the SPY 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA, generating an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal for the broad market (SPY). Does this mean that I will have to reconsider my assumption that we are in a bear market? Well, I can hardly avoid it, but I still have some reservations. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock Read More 

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DP Alert: NDX First to Get IT BUY Signal - Bullish Indicators - Dow ST BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

It's going to be one of those weeks apparently when we watch the DecisionPoint Scoreboards flip out. We have had seven signal changes starting May 4th. The reversals in the short-term trend is typical during volatile periods. What I'm most interested in right now are the bearish signals in the intermediate term. However, today, the first of those intermediate-term signals has moved to a BUY for the NDX. You'll also notice on our sector signal board below the DP Scoreboards summary, we are seeing some new IT BUY signals arriving. It wasn't that long ago that none of the sectors had BUY Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: SPX and OEX Garner New Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

The SPX and OEX both triggered new ST Trend Model BUY signals as the 5-EMAs crossed above the 20-EMAs. However, the charts are less than impressive.  We are seeing new strength on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards with four new PMO BUY signals and now 3 out of 4 indexes carrying ST Trend Model BUY signals. Yet, note on both the SPX and OEX below, price has not been able to penetrate the declining tops trendlines. I'd feel a whole lot better if these signals were arriving on a breakout. The OBV isn't making new highs in the short term either. Given the intermediate-term signals on the Read More 

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DP Bulletin #1: Short-Term PMO BUY Signal Logged on Dow Industrials

by Erin Swenlin

All four Scoreboard indexes have PMO BUY signals as of today. The Dow was the laggard, but between Friday's and today's rallies, momentum has shifted enough to push the PMO over its signal line. While we do have a PMO BUY signal, I'm not impressed with the daily chart for the Dow. The declining tops trendline was not broken today so the bearish descending triangle remains intact.   Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Happy Charting! - Erin Helpful Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Strong Finish, but Where's the Love?

by Carl Swenlin

On Thursday the market recovered nicely from an early selloff, and today it had a strong finish. But in the market, volume equals love, and the short volume on Friday was barely a peck on the cheek. On my SPY chart I like to show, in addition to SPY volume, volume for the S&P 500, and the benchmark is the 250EMA of volume. In this case both gave a resounding "meh." Despite some interim excitement, the market was virtually unchanged for the week. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of Read More 

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DP Bulletin: SPX Joins Dow with a New ST PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Today the SPX joined the Dow with a new PMO SELL signal. If the correction continues much longer, the OEX and NDX will follow suit. Today's action left the SPX with a long tail that tested the purple rising bottoms trendline. This test was successful, but the breakdown and trading below the blue ST rising bottoms trendline is concerning. We're seeing the 200-EMA penetrated yet again. If the SPX is to avoid a bear market, it needs to rebound here or at the very least at the February low. It avoided a break below support at the February low back at the end of March. It's time for the Read More 

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DP Alert: Dow Logs PMO SELL Signal - ST and IT Negative Divergences! - ITTM Neutral for Gold

by Erin Swenlin

As noted in the signal table below, the Dow logged a new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. I've included the chart below with commentary. The other important news is two new negative divergences showing on the DP indicator charts for the short term and intermediate term! And, no surprise to most, Gold logged a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral signal. With the huge breakout in the Dollar and a near perfect negative correlation between Gold and the Dollar, this decline in Gold was telegraphed awhile ago. Read More 

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Monthly Charts Reveal Bearish Bias - Review of Major Indexes, Dollar, Gold, Oil & Bonds

by Erin Swenlin

All of our monthly charts went "final" today so it is time for a review of the current signals and their implications. The DecisionPoint Scoreboards show BUY signals on all of the four major indexes and that is not changing today. However the DP Scoreboards don't necessarily reveal the current strength of those signals. One thing that is important to note, the Long-Term Trend Model signals are derived from the 50/200-EMA crossovers on the DAILY chart. I recommend you go read Carl's Weekly Wrap from Friday to understand the LT Trend Model signals. Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Back on BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. For me this is a low-confidence signal because XLY has been moving sideways, with price chopping above and below those EMAs with enough range to cause the dreaded whipsaw. Also undermining my confidence, On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been flat, failing to confirm the rising trend from this month's price low. (Rising price is not being driven by rising volume.) Finally, volume contracted today as price was trying to break out, and XLY closed near today's low. Read More 

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DP Bulletin #3: NDX PMO Whipsaws Back to a BUY

by Erin Swenlin

Not surprisingly, the NDX which had triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL yesterday, whipsawed into a new PMO BUY Signal. With a rally that moved price higher by 2.08%, the PMO was jerked back up. Unfortunately, the margin remains thin between the PMO and its signal line so the NDX could see another whipsaw on the PMO back to a SELL signal. I'll send out another bulletin tomorrow if that is the case. Of note, is what could be a very large head and shoulders pattern. If the pattern executes (and I'd need to see a decisive 3% breakdown), best case is a minimum downside target Read More 

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