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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: The Supposed Superiority of Common Only A-D Data

by Tom McClellan

I get asked a lot about the supposed problems with the NYSE’s Advance-Decline data, which some analysts claim is “contaminated” by the inclusion of NYSE-listed issues that are not “real stocks”.  If one is going to look for meaning about the stock market, some analysts say that one should really only look at the Advance-Decline data for the real stocks, or so goes the thinking.  As with a lot of widely held beliefs, this is one that struggles when confronted with the actual data. The reason one hires the A-D Line is to do a certain job.  Most Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Mary Ellen McGonagle: HOW TO BUY THE PULLBACK IN POWERFUL STOCKS

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

There have been some strong moves within the stock market this year with almost 400 stocks up 50% or more. And many of these stocks appear poised to trade even higher. Knowing how to buy these powerful stocks as they pull back to key support is a great strategy as this pause is often a springboard to higher moves. The reasons for the pullback can be varied such as rotation out of the sector the stock was in such as the recent disinterest in many Financial stocks.  Or it can simply be profit taking after large gains or made. Most likely, the stock is digesting its significant move Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 18, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 7/11/18 at 2774.04=gain 2.05%; Long SPX 6/29/18 at 2718.37. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 7/6/18 at 22.61 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. Second window up from the bottom is the Advance/Decline with a 4 period moving average. Reading below 1.25 has been a bearish sign for the SPX. Next window up is the Advancing issues with 4 period moving average and Declining issues with a 4 period moving average.  When the blue line is less than red line can lead to declines Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Momentum Must Matter

by David Keller

As the markets progress through a tumultuous earnings season, one chart jumps out as illustrating a key narrative.  The momentum trade has worked for a while, but now it appears to be the only thing that is working. Here we have a PerfChart of some of the iShares factor ETFs: Momentum (MTUM), Quality (QUAL), Low Volatility (USMV), Size (SIZE), and Value (VLUE).  Each line shows the relevant ETF and its year-to-date performance relative to the S&P 500. You’ll notice that four of the ETFs have underperformed the S&P 500 in 2018, with value Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Friday Reveals Event Risk Complacency

by Tom McClellan

 The SP500’s higher close on Friday was one of several up Fridays we have seen recently.  Moving up or down on a Friday can convey a message about investor sentiment, especially when multiple Fridays see the market go in the same direction. To be a buyer on a Friday, one has to accept that you cannot get out again until Monday.  So it takes some degree of confidence that “event risk” won’t be a problem over the weekend.  When people are feeling fearful, Fridays are more likely to see a lower close.  And by the same token, bidding up the market on Fridays can be Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 11, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.37. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 7/6/18 at 22.61 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.37 SPY appears to be breaking above the February, March and June highs and heading for the gap levels that formed back in January.  The first half of July is bullish seasonality wise and market can push higher short term. We are looking for signs that market may stall short term but we don’t have evidence to step out of our position.  A pattern that could be forming here is a “Three Drives to Top” and Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 5, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.37. Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.37 We updated this chart from yesterday. The upper window is the Total put/call ratio (CPC).  When CPC reaches great than 1.20 (Friday’s reading came in at 1.32) the market as higher 92% of the time within five days with an average gain of 1.8%.   The bottom window is the Index put/call ratio.  When this ratio reaches its upper Bollinger band, than market is near a low and this ratio reached its upper Bollinger band Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Japanese Yen Disagrees With Gold

by Tom McClellan

 The price of gold carries on an interesting relationship with the exchange rate of the Japanese yen versus the dollar.  Most of the time, the two move together, but they occasionally disagree.  When that happens, it is usually the chart plot of the yen which ends up being “right” about where both are headed. That is relevant at the moment because the dollar price of gold is making lower highs and lower lows, but the yen is showing a bullish divergence.  The yen is not yet making higher highs, but it is making at least a higher low, and that is different from what the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 27, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Neutral The bottom window is the NYSE Advance/NYSE Decline issues with a 4 period moving average which remains below 1.25 and bearish for now.  Next window up is the NYSE Advancing issues with 4 day average (blue) and NYSE declining issues with 4 day average (red).  When the blue line is on top than an uptrend is in progress; when red line is on top than decline is in progress and today’s market action produced a red line on top and bearish for now.  Seasonality turns Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 20, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered 6/19/18 at 2762.57 =gain .61%;  Short SPX on 6/15/18 at 2779.42. Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Neutral The above chart measure the momentum in the advance decline line and helps to show when the market is getting stronger or weaker.  The bottom window is the NYSE Advance/NYSE Decline issues with a 4 period MA. Readings below 1.25 have been a bearish sign for the market.  Today this indicator closed at 1.05 and up from yesterday and shows market is getting stronger but still below 1.25.  Next Read More 

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