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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Countertrend Rally or New Uptrend? RASI Holds The Key

by Tom McClellan

“Gobs of breadth is a good thing.” That is one of my favorite sayings, and we seem to be getting it since the Dec. 24, 2018 bottom.  When there are multiple days in a short period with really strong Advance-Decline (A-D) numbers, it is a sign of strong liquidity. It is possible to lift a few important stocks when liquidity is tight and the mood swings bullish.  But to lift the majority of stocks takes a much bigger firehose of money coming in. So when we see a lot of strong breadth numbers, that is a sign that the liquidity flow is healthy. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle January 15, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Equity Put/Call ratio closed Friday at .77, which suggests the market could bounce (88% of the time within 5 days) and that bounce is in effect now. There is a confluence of Fibonacci levels of 50% and 61.8% retracement level at the 2620 SPX range, which is where the November and December lows lie, and a resistance zone (today’s close 2607).  Watching the TICK and TRIN for Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Gene Inger: The Inger Letter (highlights) - January 14, 2019

by Gene Inger

Note: This sample of our work shares the current weekend report without, of course, the voice-over-chart video technical analysis and commentary. Just a few months ago, we limited distribution in fairness to actual subscribers.  In this time, we completed the "Rinse & Repeat" phase of the rolling bear I'd indicated starting with the S&P January 2018 blow-off peak and the 2nd "crash alert" at the end of September. We also called a Christmas Eve trading low.  Now we go into a delicate market time (beyond resistance at S&P 2600), so if you haven't tried Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Crude Oil Leads Bond Yields

by Tom McClellan

If you want to know what long-term bond yields are going to do, you don’t need some fancy econometric model that incorporates GDP growth, unemployment rates, factory utilization and all of the many other data series that economists watch. You just need to watch crude oil prices, then wait 3 weeks. This week’s chart compares the Treasury Yield Index (TYX) to the price of the near month crude oil futures contract. The catch is that the oil price plot has been shifted forward by 3 weeks (actually 16 trading days) in order to reveal how oil’s price movements tend to show up again Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle January 8, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The bottom window is the five day average of the TRIN. Short-term highs have been found when the 5-Day TRIN reaches .80 or lower (identified with red vertical lines). The current reading is 1.09 and in neutral territory. The top window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. According to the McClellan rules when the McClellan Oscillator Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: Safe to go in the water? With a toe maybe...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/ErVJMf When there is a question about whether you should jump in the water, you respond by taking the amount of capital you intend to commit over the long run and dividing it into tranches -- 3 to 5 pieces depending on the state of the market and the general economic situation. When the downside risk appears potentially great, you employ the most tranches. Needless to say recent (unhappy) experience leads us to say that current conditions  remain risk-saturated, so one might step in with one of five tranches and deploy the remaining tranches on a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Mark Young: Wall Street Sentiment -- Bear Market Low?

by Mark Young

In our last submission, we were firmly in the Bull camp as we were hammering out the late winter lows. Since then, we saw a dramatic rally and, over the past couple months, a painful decline. In fact, the decline took us into what we call a "Bear Market Condition." This is not a signal, by any means, but it does tell us that the market is more likely to behave perversely and Buy signals are more prone to fail. That being said, I think it quite possible that the lows for this little Bear Market may be in. Why? Well, my read is that the market needed a correction and only Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Santa Claus' Report Card Is In

by Tom McClellan

“If Santa Claus should fail to call, the bears may come to Broad and Wall.” That’s the old saying in the financial markets, referring to the “Santa Claus Rally” period, which consists of the last 5 trading days of the year plus the first two of the next year. Yale Hirsch first took on the task of quantifying this in his Stock Traders’ Almanac, and also in his book Don’t Sell Stocks On Monday.  The basic idea is that this period is usually an up one for the stock market, and my own research shows that it is up 78% of the time since 1928. But if it Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: The ominous...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/iofWKS This is ten years of the market in weekly bars. A year ago at an AAPTA meeting, we told professional technical analysts that we wouldn't have a bear market until the long term trend line was broken. As seen below, prices have (so far) bounced off the long term trend line. http://schrts.co/xFEH6M While that might provoke short-term joy, the post bounce is questioned by the nearby data and so the bottom may have to be tested. At best, we might have a V bottom, but considering the craziness of recent markets, it would be Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 31, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88. Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Seasonality is bullish into Thursday (Santa Claus rally). The above chart is “The American Association of Individual Investors Bull Bear ratio.” The chart above goes back 9 years and shows the times when the 3-period moving average of this ratio fell below .75 (current reading is .59). This ratio suggests an intermediate-term low is forming here. At Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Finally a 10-1 Up Volume Day

by Tom McClellan

The big bounce day on Dec. 26, 2018 saw NYSE Up Volume of more than 10x the amount of Down Volume, distinguishing it as a “10-1 Up Volume Day.” These are pretty special days, because they do not come along very often. They are also special because the interpretation of what one of them means depends on the context in which it appears. Generally speaking, a 10-1 Up Volume Day that appears in the middle of an up move can mark a blowoff end for that up move. But a 10-1 Day which appears right after a serious decline usually marks strong upward initiation and a reversal Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: Party's On... Where's the Champagne?

by W.H.C. Bassetti

http://schrts.co/ErVJMf One gets jaded as day after day historic records fall. Today, the Dow rocketed up more than a thousand points -- the greatest move in history. This is certainly a buy signal. There is of course a complicated context around that statement. Up to now in this formation, contrarians have jumped on a surge and blunted it by selling it. They could very well do that with this surge. If they do, it is a message that more downside is ahead. If the day stands and there is followthrough then we are probably looking at the bottom of this Read More 

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