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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: On the Fickle Correlation Between Stocks and Oil Prices

by Tom McClellan

The sharp decline in crude oil prices in Q4 of 2018 helped to take down the stock market in sympathy. And then the rapid rebound by oil has coincided with a robust rebound in stock prices, with strong breadth numbers to help confirm the stock market’s strength in 2019. But if you think you understand the relationship between stock prices and oil prices, then you have not looked at enough data yet.  Oil and stocks have been in a strong positive correlation since around the beginning of August 2018. But, for the 5 months prior to that starting point, they were in an Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle May 14, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/13/19 at 2811.87 = loss 2.05%; Long 5/9/19 at 2870.72. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%. Yesterday’s low had higher volume than the day before, suggesting yesterday’s low needs testing on lighter volume before a final low is in. Today’s rally tested yesterday’s high on lighter volume, which implies resistance and a pullback is in order. The “3-day TRIN” did reach in bullish levels yesterday. Support comes in Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: JOLTS Data Stumble, but A-D Line Says Don't Worry

by Tom McClellan

There was a small dip in the number of job openings in February 2019, causing a bit of alarm among some labor economists. But it recovered part way in March, the latest month for which data are available. And the continued upward movement of the NYSE Advance-Decline Line says that we should not be concerned about that dip in job openings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes these data each month in their Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). They make these estimates based on a survey of 16,000 nonfarm businesses and government establishments, selected Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle May 7, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%: Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Today’s volume was a high volume day and most high volume days are tested at some point. The two-day VIX “rate of change” reached 50% today, suggesting a bounce is possible in the short term. If the market does bounce, the likely upside target would be today’s and or yesterday's down gaps. If market the does Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: A New VIX Indicator (That's Really Not All That New)

by Tom McClellan

A little bit of fear over the old saying about “Sell in May and go away” has led the VIX Index to pop up through its 50-day moving average (50MA), but stop right at its upper 50-1 Bollinger Band. The VIX’s pattern of higher lows is not a confirming of the higher price highs, and for now that is a problem for the bullish case. But it is a problem which can get resolved, as the March 2019 example illustrates.  I show the chart above as an important prelude, even though I’m burying the real story somewhat in starting off with that. But it contains important concepts Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 30, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78. The top window is the hourly Tick/Trin ratio with a 30-period moving average. Readings above “0” on this indicator are a bullish sign for the market in the short term. When this indicator falls below “0,” a bearish sign is triggered. The readings below “0” have been noted with tan-shaded areas. The second window up from the bottom is the hourly Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Lofty RASI Says Uptrend Is Not Done Yet

by Tom McClellan

We are now 4 months into the rebound off of the Dec. 24, 2018 low, so it is a natural question to wonder if the uptrend is going to continue, or whether instead the major averages are going to stop here at the level of the prior highs. This week’s chart offers us some useful clues about which answer applies this time. Here is the shortcut version: Gobs of breadth is a good thing. Now here is the longer explanation: When the NYSE’s A-D Line is really strong for a long period, it produces really high readings for the McClellan Oscillator. That in turn pushes up the McClellan Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 23, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 Not expecting a runaway market here. SPX tested last September high today. Above is the “Total Put/Call Ratio” (CPC), which closed today at .79. We have marked the previous times when CPC reached .79 with red vertical lines. In all cases, the market either declined or flipped sideways. April is usually an up month in pre-election years Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Lumber Gets Its Mojo Back

by Tom McClellan

Back on March 22, I wrote here about how the price of lumber had lost its ability to correctly foretell several economic data series which tend to follow in lumber’s footsteps. The big blowoff move up to the May 2018 top at 639, where lumber stayed for about a nanosecond, has not been getting replicated in the other data related to housing. My explanation for this is that it was not a pure supply/demand event, with messaging about what lies ahead for the other data series. It was, instead, a speculative blowoff move, spurred by the U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle April 17, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX 3/28/19 & 2815.44= gain .61%; Long 2798.36 & 3/25/19. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78 The second window down from the top is the 3-period moving average of the TRIN. Readings above 1.30 are normally bullish if they come after a decline in the market. If the 3-period MA TRIN readings come when the market has rallied, that can be a bearish sign; and that is what we have here. It's rare during a rally that the 3-period MA of the TRIN Read More 

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