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Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: QQQ Volume Showing Us Sign of a Top

by Tom McClellan

When analyzing trading volume, one should understand that it works differently in ETFs than it does in individual stocks. Volume studies can be important in individual stocks to help confirm the validity of an apparent breakout, for example. Volume is also important to help validate a head-and-shoulders structure.  But in the big ETFs, like QQQ or SPY, volume works in a different way. Very simply, those ETFs’ volume tends to move inversely with prices. Falling prices serve to get traders more excited, and they turn to the big ETFs for their greater Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 16, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= Gain of 2.50%;  Long SPX 6/25/19 at 2917.38.  Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%; Long SPX on 6-26-19 at 2913.78. Above is the VIX, which trades oppositely to the SPY.  The second window up from the bottom is the SPY/VIX ratio. This ratio is bullish for the market when it is rising and bearish when declining. The ratio turned down yesterday and continues down today, a bearish sign. However Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Upturn Ahead for T-Bond Yields

by Tom McClellan

I like getting answers ahead of time, and I really like chart pattern leading indications, like the one in this week’s chart, that can give us useful answers about what lies ahead. The movements in crude oil prices tend to show up again about 3 weeks later, in the movements of bond yields, with the dance steps getting repeated. Sometimes the Treasury Yield Index (TYX) does its own artistic interpretation of those dance steps. And sometimes it goes completely off script for a while, but then works extra hard to get back on track with what crude oil says should have been Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 9, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= Gain of 2.50%;  Long SPX 6/25/19 at 2917.38.  Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%; Long SPX on 6-26-19 at 2913.78. The second window up from the bottom in the above chart is the SPY/VIX ratio. This ratio rises and falls with the SPY. The ratio turned down last Friday (one of the reasons we sold our SPX positions) and today it continued lower, suggesting market could remain weak for the short Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 2, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.   Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long Term long SPX on 6-26-19 at 2913.78. What we said yesterday is still valid. “The above chart is the VIX. In general, the VIX moves opposite to the SPY and, when it does move opposite, the prevailing trends remain intact. Today, the VIX closed at a new short-term low and the SPY closed at a new short-term high, keeping the uptrend in the SPY intact. The second window up from the bottom is the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Gold's Dollar-Price Breakout Started With A Yuan-Priced Breakout

by Tom McClellan

Gold prices shot higher starting on June 14, after the dollar price of gold cleared the Feb. 20, 2019 high at 1343.70. That brought out the momentum-chasing buyers, or at least it brought out those who think in dollars.  But a breakout to a higher high had already taken place if you look at the spot price of Gold as measured in the Chinese Yuan. It moved above its equivalent high on June 3, almost 2 weeks before the Dollar price’s breakout.  Traders and investors in the USA are used to looking at everything in Dollar price terms, because that is Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 25, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 6/25/19 at 2917.38.  Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%. The chart above is the three-week moving average of the American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear Ratio, going back to late 2010. We have been showing this chart recently because is relative to the current timeframe. We previously said that “[i]ntermediate-term rallies have occurred in the SPX when this ratio reached .75 and lower. The most Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: High Grade Bond Summation Index

by Tom McClellan

The Treasury Bond blowoff which is currently underway is dragging along the high-grade corporate bonds due to the coattails effect. That is leading to really strong numbers for the Advance-Decline statistics for these corporate bonds, which has driven up the Ratio-Adjusted Summation Index (RASI) for these bonds to a really high level. When it comes to the stock market, a really high RASI for the NYSE is great news. It says that strong upward initiation of an uptrend has taken place, and it promises us further gains yet to come in the weeks and months ahead. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 18, 2019

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96. Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%. Today’s volume jumped nearly 50% compared to the previous several days, suggesting short-term exhaustion and a bearish sign. SPY gapped up and, with today’s short-term volume exhaustion, a short-term pullback is possible to test open gap. If the market does pull back and the gap is tested on lighter volume (most likely, the test Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: When Underperformance Reaches an Extreme

by Tom McClellan

When small-cap stocks are outperforming on a relative basis, that is usually a bullish sign for the overall stock market. And small cap underperformance is usually a bad sign. This principle works because small-cap stocks tend to be more sensitive to liquidity conditions, either good or bad. So, when there is enough money around to lift the small caps, that means there is enough money to lift everything. This week’s lead chart shows a very simple indicator, the relative strength ratio for the Russell 2000 vs. its big-cap brother, the Russell 1000 Index. It is Read More 

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