The blogs and webinars should really climb up the value chain over the next few weeks. As the fastest growing blog at StockCharts this month, thanks for reading and watching! Its not every week that my webinar has so many clues lining up on a single point in time. If you missed the Thursday webinar, the comments back suggest it had some timely valuable charts. Commodities Countdown Weekly Webinar 20150917. Once again, the focus of the Commodities Countdown webinar is having a Commodities centric view of the world and looking out from there. Sometimes a change in perspective can be extremely valuable from the finance centric view. See if you notice the difference!
I started the webinar just a few hours after the "What the Fed says" reached the pinnacle moment on the financial news channels. No Change. My view and the view by the Fed on the $USD and Oil were a long way apart. Here is the state of the US Dollar ($USD). It has been declining for 6 months and is currently at the same level as early January. The Fed said the economy was slowing because of the rising $USD. That was really a last year trend, not 2015.
Regarding oil, the dropping price of oil was concerning the Fed. It still has a down trend. What I don't understand is oil is where it was in the first week of January and has traded higher and lower than that level. Last year oil fell $55 and the Fed was not really worried about the dropping price of oil as they saw it as transitory. They still do think it is transitory. Oil closed Thursday above the 50 DMA on Thursday and fell back below on Friday. The 50 DMA seems to be a nice line in the sand for oil. Bullish above, bearish below. More information is on the webinar about oil, associated stock signals, some ETF's and other indicators for oil. Commodities Countdown (20150917)
I put up a chart about quadruple witching on Thursday outlining why investors should be very very cautious around the quarterly anniversary. While Friday is confirmation of what we reviewed on the webinar, you'll find more information about what the next few weeks might bring. Tom Bowley also mentioned this chart on his blog so investors may wish to study it a little bit more.
Gold and silver had a big week. I mentioned Gold in the ChartWatchers article that went out this weekend so I'll post the silver chart here. Silver tagged up against resistance on Friday but any more weakness in the $USD would probably send this chart on a major breakout.
There is a lot more information about the $SPX trend line on the webinar. I also discussed some similar pattern setups from 2011 that I think are quite compelling. Feel free to comment your thoughts about the webinar information below. Here are the three links for the webinars. One for watching the previous Thursday September 17th webinar. Commodities Countdown 20150917. The other two are for the up coming webinars. Register for Martin Pring's Market Roundup on Tuesday September 22nd. The Commodities Countdown Webinar registration for Thursday September 24th. You can register for emails that come whenever I update this blog. You should see the email link just a bit lower on this page. Thanks for taking the time to read the blog articles and I hope you are also enjoying the commodities coverage on the webinar. Have a good week.
Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT
